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Totally agree. The biggest fallacy in tech circles is confusing s-curves with exponentials
by dmarchand90 4y ago
Totally agree. The biggest fallacy in tech circles is confusing s-curves with exponentials
- usrusr 4y agoNicely condensed, I hope I'll remember for future use. But I'd replace the "in tech circles" with "about technological development", because I don't think that people further away from tech are any less suspect. (but in the other hand they certainly don't indulge in rose-tinted extrapolation as much...)
- dmarchand90 4y agoOh yeah, good point, maybe something like "the biggest fallacy in predicting the future is to confuse an s curve with an exponential"
- dtech 4y agoIt's hard to say which one we're in with computers though. Transistors + conventional programming have definitely reached the flatting out part. However, if we're talking 100 years, it's hard to estimate what potential paradigm shifts like true AI*, quantum computing, or something that hasn't been thought of will change. * What we're now seeing with GPT 3.5 etc. No-one can really say with high confidence whether it's the start of an AI revolution or will plateau soon.