3 ms·

In 1953, people looking back at the first 50 years of powered flight imagined the wildest things to happen in the next 50. Today we have B-52 built no later tha

by usrusr 4y ago

In 1953, people looking back at the first 50 years of powered flight imagined the wildest things to happen in the next 50. Today we have B-52 built no later than 1963 scheduled to fly well into the 2050ies. To me, the modesty of the article's predictions was a pleasant surprise after the expectations set by the headline.

khaledh 4y ago
True, but we also have planes that can almost fly themselves (for the most part), drones that are remotely controlled, stealth jets, and rockets that can reach Mars.
- kens 4y ago
  Historical note: remote-controlled drones are not a new thing. The first remote-controlled drone aircraft was the RP-1 (Radio Plane 1), demonstrated in 1938. Almost 15,000 Radio Plane drones were built in World War II. Reference: https://www.historynet.com/drones-hollywood-connection/?f https://www.historynet.com/drones-hollywood-connection/?f
dmarchand90 4y ago
Totally agree. The biggest fallacy in tech circles is confusing s-curves with exponentials
- usrusr 4y ago
  Nicely condensed, I hope I'll remember for future use. But I'd replace the "in tech circles" with "about technological development", because I don't think that people further away from tech are any less suspect. (but in the other hand they certainly don't indulge in rose-tinted extrapolation as much...)
  - dmarchand90 4y ago
    Oh yeah, good point, maybe something like "the biggest fallacy in predicting the future is to confuse an s curve with an exponential"
- dtech 4y ago
  It's hard to say which one we're in with computers though. Transistors + conventional programming have definitely reached the flatting out part. However, if we're talking 100 years, it's hard to estimate what potential paradigm shifts like true AI*, quantum computing, or something that hasn't been thought of will change. * What we're now seeing with GPT 3.5 etc. No-one can really say with high confidence whether it's the start of an AI revolution or will plateau soon.
_a_a_a_ 4y ago
My understanding is this is sort-of true. There have been continual upgrades for the entire life of the plane so you can't point to the first ever and assume it's anywhere near the same as one which flies today. (from memory. One more knowledgeable should chime in here)
- usrusr 4y ago
  There have been upgrades of various kinds, they probably don't fly with Garmins velcroed to the cockpit. Weapons load interfaces have surely seen considerable modernization, they keep adapting to the very latest munitions (e.g. B52 from 60 years ago are what they use to test fire hypersonic missile prototypes). An engine update seems to finally be signed, to a variant of a design from the mid nineties. After several decades of studies and reviewing offers, operational 2028 to 2035 [0]. Wheels do seem to turn a little slower than they used to. What your memory probably brought up was the fact that all the 52s flying today are 52H, the final iteration following A through G with considerable changes between them. But the H is the one built 1961 through 1963, from today's perspective they are not really much younger than their mothballed/disarmed siblings. The reason I suspect that this is what you are talking about is that the same thing happened to me, I roughly knew about the A through H thing but placed the H much closer to the present and was very surprised on a recent read-up. [0] https://www.afmc.af.mil/News/Article-Display/Article/2789821/daf-awards-rolls-royce-b-52h-engine-contract/ https://www.afmc.af.mil/News/Article-Display/Article/2789821...

by usrusr 4y ago

khaledh 4y ago

True, but we also have planes that can almost fly themselves (for the most part), drones that are remotely controlled, stealth jets, and rockets that can reach Mars.

kens 4y ago
Historical note: remote-controlled drones are not a new thing. The first remote-controlled drone aircraft was the RP-1 (Radio Plane 1), demonstrated in 1938. Almost 15,000 Radio Plane drones were built in World War II. Reference: https://www.historynet.com/drones-hollywood-connection/?f https://www.historynet.com/drones-hollywood-connection/?f

dmarchand90 4y ago

Totally agree. The biggest fallacy in tech circles is confusing s-curves with exponentials

usrusr 4y ago
Nicely condensed, I hope I'll remember for future use. But I'd replace the "in tech circles" with "about technological development", because I don't think that people further away from tech are any less suspect. (but in the other hand they certainly don't indulge in rose-tinted extrapolation as much...)
- dmarchand90 4y ago
  Oh yeah, good point, maybe something like "the biggest fallacy in predicting the future is to confuse an s curve with an exponential"
dtech 4y ago
It's hard to say which one we're in with computers though. Transistors + conventional programming have definitely reached the flatting out part. However, if we're talking 100 years, it's hard to estimate what potential paradigm shifts like true AI*, quantum computing, or something that hasn't been thought of will change. * What we're now seeing with GPT 3.5 etc. No-one can really say with high confidence whether it's the start of an AI revolution or will plateau soon.

_a_a_a_ 4y ago

My understanding is this is sort-of true. There have been continual upgrades for the entire life of the plane so you can't point to the first ever and assume it's anywhere near the same as one which flies today. (from memory. One more knowledgeable should chime in here)

usrusr 4y ago
There have been upgrades of various kinds, they probably don't fly with Garmins velcroed to the cockpit. Weapons load interfaces have surely seen considerable modernization, they keep adapting to the very latest munitions (e.g. B52 from 60 years ago are what they use to test fire hypersonic missile prototypes). An engine update seems to finally be signed, to a variant of a design from the mid nineties. After several decades of studies and reviewing offers, operational 2028 to 2035 [0]. Wheels do seem to turn a little slower than they used to. What your memory probably brought up was the fact that all the 52s flying today are 52H, the final iteration following A through G with considerable changes between them. But the H is the one built 1961 through 1963, from today's perspective they are not really much younger than their mothballed/disarmed siblings. The reason I suspect that this is what you are talking about is that the same thing happened to me, I roughly knew about the A through H thing but placed the H much closer to the present and was very surprised on a recent read-up. [0] https://www.afmc.af.mil/News/Article-Display/Article/2789821/daf-awards-rolls-royce-b-52h-engine-contract/ https://www.afmc.af.mil/News/Article-Display/Article/2789821...