My guess is that 80% are good at assessing risk, but most of us are either born or raised to be compliant, so this assessment doesn't relate well to outcomes.

My guess is that 80% are good at assessing risk, but most of us are either born or raised to be compliant, so this assessment doesn't relate well to outcomes. Using the grandparent's 9/11 TSA analogy - talk to literally anyone - the vast majority of people will openly acknowledge that TSA screening is pure security theatre, but they accept and go through it anyway. You'll find the same thing regarding the Epstein suicide, domestic spying apparatus, etc. Most people know and accept statistically likely truth, but they play along because compliance makes for a more comfortable life.