Here's a paper that is the best single source of quantification of learning curves that I know of: https://www.inet.ox.ac.uk/publications/no-2021-01-empiricall

Here's a paper that is the best single source of quantification of learning curves that I know of: https://www.inet.ox.ac.uk/publications/no-2021-01-empirically-grounded-technology-forecasts-and-the-energy-transition/ https://www.inet.ox.ac.uk/publications/no-2021-01-empiricall... With a detailed podcast episode here: https://xenetwork.org/ets/episodes/episode-159-the-cost-of-decarbonization/ https://xenetwork.org/ets/episodes/episode-159-the-cost-of-d... But any single paper in the literature shouldn't be trusted on its own. So I would encourage anybody who is interested to look for themselves at cost curves over time for solar wind and storage, and notice how they all follow Wright's law very well. And then look at the ever-increasing cost of fossil fuel extraction, as we need ever more sophisticated techniques to continue matching supply to demand as the easier sources are extracted. Wind solar and storage behave like proper technologies. Fracking did to some extent, but it is technology for making something that was impossible into the possible; and there's finite amounts of frackable resources. Oil and natural gas have price floors set by these fracking costs, which have not dropped precipitously in the past 10 years. We have not yet reached the inflection points on wind water and solar where the logistic curve switches to the linear phase. So we likely have decades of similar cost reductions for these technologies, almost certainly. If you look at where that leaves us for an energy future, it's unbelievably rosy. That is, as long as we invest in the tech.