4 ms·

It’s definitely worth working on, don’t get me wrong. But the timelines for these projects are decades, not years. Expecting large scale payoffs anytime soon wo

It’s definitely worth working on, don’t get me wrong. But the timelines for these projects are decades, not years. Expecting large scale payoffs anytime soon would be fooling yourself. In Germany, I see a very dangerous trend of expecting that such changes will save us, but the timelines just don’t work out. So the primary effort should be directed to places where faster results are viable - heating/warm water via heat pumps where possible, insulation efforts, reducing car traffic, replacing existing power generation with non-fossil methods, energy reuse. For example, waste heat from industrial processes and data centers is mostly lost in germany, often due to planning/legal restrictions. (Sorry, source in German https://www.heise.de/hintergrund/Green-IT-Abwaerme-aus-Rechenzentren-fuer-Heizungen-nutzen-6327090.html https://www.heise.de/hintergrund/Green-IT-Abwaerme-aus-Reche...) Datacenter alone use about 3% of germanys electricity and turn it into heat - recapturing even half of that would place use closer to the goal.

matthewdgreen 4y ago
I don't see a path to global decarbonization that doesn't include major reductions in fossil fuel production, and I don't see a path to major reductions in fossil fuel production that doesn't produce major price variability in (fossil) fertilizer production inputs. It's good that we aim to reduce our datacenter energy usage, but that may not prevent the avoidable starvation of millions of people.
- Xylakant 4y ago
  Reducing car size and mileage would be a good start - I don‘t have numbers at hand for the US, but in Germany, the individual mobility via cars produces about 20% of the entire CO2. Even a speed limit would already cut that by a few percent. Immediately, as in „the day after the law is in force“. In 2021, cars (trucks not included) used 60 billion tons of fuel in Germany alone and rising https://www.umweltbundesamt.de/sites/default/files/medien/384/bilder/dateien/3_abb_kraftstoffverbrauch-strassenverkehr_2022-01-31.pdf https://www.umweltbundesamt.de/sites/default/files/medien/38... Shutting down the BASF steamcrackers would be equivalent to a reduction of that fuel consumption by 0.5% or so. So, a speed limit would be more effective and faster to implement. But that’s a holy cow no one touches, neither here, nor in the US.
  - concordDance 4y ago
    Note that just because that would cut CO2 does not mean its worth doing. E.g. that speed limit could easily cost more QALYs (e.g. via longer commutes meaning more tired people and less quality time with kids and more spousal arguments) than are saved with it. Particularly if, for example, geoengineering via sunshades or somesuch proves viable this century.
    - Xylakant 4y ago
      Like civilization died in all the surrounding European states? It’s a bleak wasteland of people trecking for days to reach their workplace, ravaged by wars kicked off because a spouse got tired of waiting for their husband. I’m sorry for the ridicule, but that’s frankly the worst argument I’ve ever heard rejecting speed limits.
      - concordDance 4y ago
        I'm stating that it may not be worth doing. You'd have to actually do the maths to confirm either way. Disclaimer: as a public transport user I have no dog on this fight. I can try a back of the envelope I guess... If I assume a time in a car is around 0.9x as good as average time (which feels about right to me and indeed seems to match actual usage with risk level tolerance from 40 years ago), assume moderately large speed limit reduction enough to increase travel time by 20% and use a figure of 10kg of CO2 per hour (seems about right looking at estimates of modern car gas consumption) and the NICE QALY value of £30k we get around £100 worth of QALY loss per ton of CO2. This is a bit over the largest estimates for a CO2 tax that would cover CO2 emission externalities ($100 per ton) (using the latest estimates for the costs of climate change over the next 100 years). Given the large error bars in the rough work above, it looks quite plausible that the real calculation could go either way, with a speed limit possibly being net good or net bad.
    - throwbadubadu 4y ago
      Can I have something of what you are taking too make such nonsense more bearable? Just imagine what our grandgrandchildren will say when they rediscover such a comment, lol. I mean those having those sunshades then up in the sky...
Xylakant 4y ago
Just to give you an idea of the timelines: The BASF is currently building a small test plant to evaluate steamcracking via (renewable) electricity - it‘s expected to fire up in 2023 and will process about 6 tons of hydrocarbons a day (so roughly 2000 tons per year). https://www.basf.com/global/en/media/news-releases/2022/09/p-22-326.html https://www.basf.com/global/en/media/news-releases/2022/09/p... The actual plant with two steamcrackers processes about two million tons. https://www.basf.com/global/en/who-we-are/organization/locations/europe/german-sites/ludwigshafen/production/the-production-verbund/Steamcracker.html https://www.basf.com/global/en/who-we-are/organization/locat... The plant is gigantic, and the core of the industrial park. A lot of further production depends on the output of the steamcrackers, so when they had to be shut down in 2016 due to a fire in the harbor supplying the plant, 26 other plants needed to be shut down. Restarting them took days. Even if the technology were proven, we‘d be talking about a huge, multi-year engineering effort just to replace the existing plants.

matthewdgreen 4y ago

I don't see a path to global decarbonization that doesn't include major reductions in fossil fuel production, and I don't see a path to major reductions in fossil fuel production that doesn't produce major price variability in (fossil) fertilizer production inputs. It's good that we aim to reduce our datacenter energy usage, but that may not prevent the avoidable starvation of millions of people.

Xylakant 4y ago
Reducing car size and mileage would be a good start - I don‘t have numbers at hand for the US, but in Germany, the individual mobility via cars produces about 20% of the entire CO2. Even a speed limit would already cut that by a few percent. Immediately, as in „the day after the law is in force“. In 2021, cars (trucks not included) used 60 billion tons of fuel in Germany alone and rising https://www.umweltbundesamt.de/sites/default/files/medien/384/bilder/dateien/3_abb_kraftstoffverbrauch-strassenverkehr_2022-01-31.pdf https://www.umweltbundesamt.de/sites/default/files/medien/38... Shutting down the BASF steamcrackers would be equivalent to a reduction of that fuel consumption by 0.5% or so. So, a speed limit would be more effective and faster to implement. But that’s a holy cow no one touches, neither here, nor in the US.
- concordDance 4y ago
  Note that just because that would cut CO2 does not mean its worth doing. E.g. that speed limit could easily cost more QALYs (e.g. via longer commutes meaning more tired people and less quality time with kids and more spousal arguments) than are saved with it. Particularly if, for example, geoengineering via sunshades or somesuch proves viable this century.
  - Xylakant 4y ago
    Like civilization died in all the surrounding European states? It’s a bleak wasteland of people trecking for days to reach their workplace, ravaged by wars kicked off because a spouse got tired of waiting for their husband. I’m sorry for the ridicule, but that’s frankly the worst argument I’ve ever heard rejecting speed limits.
    - concordDance 4y ago
      I'm stating that it may not be worth doing. You'd have to actually do the maths to confirm either way. Disclaimer: as a public transport user I have no dog on this fight. I can try a back of the envelope I guess... If I assume a time in a car is around 0.9x as good as average time (which feels about right to me and indeed seems to match actual usage with risk level tolerance from 40 years ago), assume moderately large speed limit reduction enough to increase travel time by 20% and use a figure of 10kg of CO2 per hour (seems about right looking at estimates of modern car gas consumption) and the NICE QALY value of £30k we get around £100 worth of QALY loss per ton of CO2. This is a bit over the largest estimates for a CO2 tax that would cover CO2 emission externalities ($100 per ton) (using the latest estimates for the costs of climate change over the next 100 years). Given the large error bars in the rough work above, it looks quite plausible that the real calculation could go either way, with a speed limit possibly being net good or net bad.
  - throwbadubadu 4y ago
    Can I have something of what you are taking too make such nonsense more bearable? Just imagine what our grandgrandchildren will say when they rediscover such a comment, lol. I mean those having those sunshades then up in the sky...

Xylakant 4y ago

Just to give you an idea of the timelines: The BASF is currently building a small test plant to evaluate steamcracking via (renewable) electricity - it‘s expected to fire up in 2023 and will process about 6 tons of hydrocarbons a day (so roughly 2000 tons per year). https://www.basf.com/global/en/media/news-releases/2022/09/p-22-326.html https://www.basf.com/global/en/media/news-releases/2022/09/p... The actual plant with two steamcrackers processes about two million tons. https://www.basf.com/global/en/who-we-are/organization/locations/europe/german-sites/ludwigshafen/production/the-production-verbund/Steamcracker.html https://www.basf.com/global/en/who-we-are/organization/locat... The plant is gigantic, and the core of the industrial park. A lot of further production depends on the output of the steamcrackers, so when they had to be shut down in 2016 due to a fire in the harbor supplying the plant, 26 other plants needed to be shut down. Restarting them took days. Even if the technology were proven, we‘d be talking about a huge, multi-year engineering effort just to replace the existing plants.