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Ukraine isnt a deterrant. Taiwan isn't surrounded by US yes-men countries. Most Asian nations will choose not to get involved in any continuation of a Chinese c
by ashwagary 4y ago
Ukraine isnt a deterrant. Taiwan isn't surrounded by US yes-men countries. Most Asian nations will choose not to get involved in any continuation of a Chinese civil war.
- ceejayoz 4y ago> Taiwan isn't surrounded by US yes-men countries. Taiwan is close to key US allies (Japan and Korea) and several other nations that aren't huge fans of China lately. It's also more protected than Ukraine by natural features, i.e. a strait the Chinese invasion force would have to cross in an amphibious assault. The deterrent from Ukraine is that conflict's showing how effective large numbers of man-portable anti-tank and anti-aircraft missiles can be on an invasion force.
- ashwagary 4y agoDo you believe Japan and South Korea would put their populations at risk to interfere in a Chinese civil war? I highly doubt it, they are smarter than that.
- ceejayoz 4y agoI don’t think they are dumb enough to let China take Taiwan unopposed, no. Taiwan definitely got the Ukraine message, incidentally: https://twitter.com/MPWangTingyu/status/1607702645296492545 https://twitter.com/MPWangTingyu/status/1607702645296492545
- ashwagary 4y agoI disagree. Both countries prefer a defensive posture in military deployment. If it isnt a threat to South Korea and Japan's territory, they will be reluctant to engage. I don't expect either to risk escalating kenetic engagement with China for a 3rd party like Taiwan. This reunification glacier is moving in one direction and nobody in the neighborhood (except Taiwan) will be willing to stand in its path.