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As a rule, research may be appropriate. A quick back-of-the-envelope makes clear that a pure EV future that's structured similarly to what exists today isn't v

As a rule, research may be appropriate. A quick back-of-the-envelope makes clear that a pure EV future that's structured similarly to what exists today isn't viable. There's ~1.44B cars world wide. Replace them all with EVs, and you and up using something around 130MT of copper just for the cars. Currently commercially viable copper reserves are around ~900MT. Given that you also need a charger infrastructure, and that humanity has a few other uses for copper, that's problematic. Thinking about alternatives besides copper-based cars is simply hedging their bets. And while not all car manufacturers have a hydrogen hedge at hand, they all employ plenty of people who can do the basic math above. EV only is not going to happen without significant shifts either reducing total number of cars by a large number, or reducing the amount of copper needed by a large number. Clearly, car makers don't care about option 1, and there are not that many option 2 alternatives.

svnt 4y ago
Your argument is that because initial EV designs haven’t immediately solved all the problems necessary for global replacement of ICEs overnight, it can’t happen? “Not that many” alternative metals? Alloys are everywhere.
- groby_b 4y ago
  My argument (and that of the car industry, behind closed doors, fwiw) is that we're not going to see an all-EV future any time soon, and that you need to hedge your bets. Also, resource shortages are not a problem you easily engineer yourself out. You need copper. (What do you think is the major component of those alloys?). Conductivity requires copper or silver, and, well, copper is the cheap and plentiful one. Sure, make copper/zinc alloys, but that's not reducing the fundamental need for resources that are scarce at this scale. (Well, scarce when looked at through a commercial viability lens. If we revolutionize copper mining, things look different. But, just in terms of sustainability, what do you think that will look like? And, yes, "asteroid mining". Which will not happen in the next 20 years, either) So, no, within the next few decades, the chances for a global EV future aren't high enough to bet a company on it. You can bet on luxury/status EVs. There's even a good chance a large percentage of freight in industrialized countries might move to EV. But unless you're a boutique car maker, you have a much wider audience than that. And you need to plan for that.
  - WkndTriathlete 4y ago
    Transmission lines went to aluminum years ago. What makes you think that EVs won't be using aluminum instead of copper?
    - groby_b 4y ago
      Because aluminum has a lower current carrying capacity (EV's have relatively high amperage, compared to transmission lines - 30A-50A vs 1A). And the greater resistance means a larger cross-section(~1.5x) than copper, which in a space-constrained environment is a problem. Also, access to aluminum means trading with China, Russia, or India - which means inherent geopolitical threats to your supply chain. (Copper is Peru and Chile, so somewhat less contentious) Are these issues solvable? Likely. They are, as the adage goes "just engineering problems". But they aren't solved yet, and that means, if you run a business, you hedge.
  - svnt 4y ago
    There is less preventing EVs from becoming simple and low-cost than there is with ICE vehicles. I’m not surprised your narrative is present within extant automakers because with the exception of perhaps Nissan they are in this market having been dragged here by others’ innovation. The reason status is winning is not because EVs need to be expensive. It’s because EVs like the Model S Plaid completely destroyed the performance segment of the market. For $120k you could not only beat but outright embarrass any ICE vehicle. ICE vehicles could not compete, and the fast EVs were profitable at lower volumes. EVs redefined the status segment. Once the market wakes up, which the pandemic has largely accomplished, the transition will be as fast as we can produce the necessary vehicles, and as soon as people can afford them. Global oil conflict only helps the situation.

svnt 4y ago

Your argument is that because initial EV designs haven’t immediately solved all the problems necessary for global replacement of ICEs overnight, it can’t happen? “Not that many” alternative metals? Alloys are everywhere.

groby_b 4y ago
My argument (and that of the car industry, behind closed doors, fwiw) is that we're not going to see an all-EV future any time soon, and that you need to hedge your bets. Also, resource shortages are not a problem you easily engineer yourself out. You need copper. (What do you think is the major component of those alloys?). Conductivity requires copper or silver, and, well, copper is the cheap and plentiful one. Sure, make copper/zinc alloys, but that's not reducing the fundamental need for resources that are scarce at this scale. (Well, scarce when looked at through a commercial viability lens. If we revolutionize copper mining, things look different. But, just in terms of sustainability, what do you think that will look like? And, yes, "asteroid mining". Which will not happen in the next 20 years, either) So, no, within the next few decades, the chances for a global EV future aren't high enough to bet a company on it. You can bet on luxury/status EVs. There's even a good chance a large percentage of freight in industrialized countries might move to EV. But unless you're a boutique car maker, you have a much wider audience than that. And you need to plan for that.
- WkndTriathlete 4y ago
  Transmission lines went to aluminum years ago. What makes you think that EVs won't be using aluminum instead of copper?
  - groby_b 4y ago
    Because aluminum has a lower current carrying capacity (EV's have relatively high amperage, compared to transmission lines - 30A-50A vs 1A). And the greater resistance means a larger cross-section(~1.5x) than copper, which in a space-constrained environment is a problem. Also, access to aluminum means trading with China, Russia, or India - which means inherent geopolitical threats to your supply chain. (Copper is Peru and Chile, so somewhat less contentious) Are these issues solvable? Likely. They are, as the adage goes "just engineering problems". But they aren't solved yet, and that means, if you run a business, you hedge.
- svnt 4y ago
  There is less preventing EVs from becoming simple and low-cost than there is with ICE vehicles. I’m not surprised your narrative is present within extant automakers because with the exception of perhaps Nissan they are in this market having been dragged here by others’ innovation. The reason status is winning is not because EVs need to be expensive. It’s because EVs like the Model S Plaid completely destroyed the performance segment of the market. For $120k you could not only beat but outright embarrass any ICE vehicle. ICE vehicles could not compete, and the fast EVs were profitable at lower volumes. EVs redefined the status segment. Once the market wakes up, which the pandemic has largely accomplished, the transition will be as fast as we can produce the necessary vehicles, and as soon as people can afford them. Global oil conflict only helps the situation.