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Has anybody ever claimed the auto industry will go 100% electric anytime soon? Feels like Toyota is trying to setup a straw man. More surprising to me was that

Has anybody ever claimed the auto industry will go 100% electric anytime soon? Feels like Toyota is trying to setup a straw man. More surprising to me was that the Toyota CEO is named Toyoda.

rhaway84773 4y ago
The Japanese auto makers are also against EVs in favor of hydrogen because Japan’s economy is driven by conglomerates who make a lot of money building heavy machinery etc which are better served by hydrogen than electricity. As a result the Japanese carmakers have shied from investing in EVs since the soft edict from top was to build hydrogen instead. It’s not a coincidence that the first Japanese car company that jumped right into EVs was Nissan when it was being headed by Ghosn, who isn’t Japanese himself. (The Prius doesn’t count…that was Toyota’s answer to CA’s requirements, and was wildly successful beyond what they expected. The fact that Toyota hardly built on the Prius brand for 2 decades tells one all they need to know about how the Japanese automakers staying away from EVs isn’t just a business decision, but is being driven by other considerations).
- robocat 4y ago
  > The Prius doesn’t count…that was Toyota’s answer to CA’s requirements That sounded a bit US-centric - so I did a quick Google and found that belief is incorrect: Sales in Japan were extremely strong from the outset, buoyed by Prius winning Japan’s Car of the Year award for 1998. By May 2000 more than 40,000 units had been sold and production capacity was increased to 3,000 a month in anticipation of its arrival in refreshed form (XW11 chassis) in export markets. Initial testing in the U.S., in 1999, before release to the general public nearly sidelined the Prius before its debut. The few drivers involved in the testing were less than impressed. That, combined with no way to determine a viable buyer market for the Prius, almost halted the car’s journey outside of Japan. [USA 2000]Nevertheless, the Prius caught on. Toyota was pleasantly surprised that sales the first year exceeded projections and when some Hollywood stars took notice (and purchased the vehicles), things only go better. Edit: Wow - buoyed US pronunciation: https://youtu.be/sx419urqnkE?t=460 https://youtu.be/sx419urqnkE?t=460 - found using https://youglish.com/ https://youglish.com/ cf. buoyancy
kqr 4y ago
It's been a family company for 100+ years, and the CEO has almost always been a member of the Toyoda family.
- dom96 4y ago
  [flagged]
  - gjsman-1000 4y ago
    Having my grandkids running my family business is nepotism? Whatever.
    - sokoloff 4y ago
      Most probably it literally is nepotism. It’s possible that for two generations in a row the most qualified person to succeed the previous was a family member, but it’s nowhere near as common as actually happens in practice in family businesses. It’s also your family’s right to do that, so there’s no need to pretend it’s not nepotism.
      - kqr 4y ago
        Note that There's more than natural selection at play here. I wouldn't be surprised if the offspring have been groomed from a very early age to take over the company. Is it such a surprise that they would seem best fit?
      - ladon86 4y ago
        In Japan it is quite common for an unrelated executive to be chosen as the successor, and they will then either marry a daughter of the CEO or even be adopted by him before taking over. This ensures that the company remains a “family business” (a desirable label in Japan) but it isn’t necessarily by blood, rather they become family via their success in the business. So it’s often not nepotism as we know it - it’s almost reverse nepotism! Edit: This is not the case for the Toyodas, however. All leaders of Toyota were indeed descended from the founder.
seydor 4y ago
Many countries have laws making electric mandatory in ~ decade
- voisin 4y ago
  Making electric mandatory or banning ICE? Very different things. One gives electric a monopoly, the other doesn’t.
  - deleted 4y ago
    [deleted]
  - Traubenfuchs 4y ago
    https://www.reuters.com/markets/europe/eu-approves-effective-ban-new-fossil-fuel-cars-2035-2022-10-27/#:~:text=BRUSSELS%2C%20Oct%2027%20(Reuters),vehicles%20and%20combat%20climate%20change https://www.reuters.com/markets/europe/eu-approves-effective.... "The European Union struck a deal on Thursday on a law to effectively ban the sale of new petrol and diesel cars from 2035, aiming to speed up the switch to electric vehicles and combat climate change." I want to see that!
    - criddell 4y ago
      That cover the EU, but there's a whole lot more to the world than that. I'll be surprised if there are no fossil fuel cars being made or sold in China and Russia in 15 years. Even in the US, I'm pretty sure the defense department hasn't set a deadline for eliminating fossil fuels from their fleet and they buy a lot of vehicles, making them one of the planet's largest polluters.
- rootusrootus 4y ago
  Most regulation that I've seen specifies electrified, which includes hybrids, not limited to just BEVs. There are perhaps exceptions, but since most people prefer to be outraged, it all gets peddled as "the gov't is going to force you to buy an EV!"
  - 4y ago
funstuff007 4y ago
It's pretty easy to find contrary evidence--depending on your exact definition of soon. At COP26, leading automotive companies, businesses, governments, and investors agreed to work towards all new cars and vans being zero emission vehicles by 2035 in leading markets and by 2040 globally. New Polling Shows U.S. Voters Support Full Transition to Electric Cars by 2030 https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/new-polling-shows-us-voters-support-full-transition-to-electric-cars-by-2030-301425402.html https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/new-polling-shows-u...
- phpisthebest 4y ago
  >>leading automotive companies, businesses, governments, and investors agreed Yes, they are all rent seeking trying to get tax payers to pay for the capital outlays for the transition. >New Polling Shows U.S. Voters Support There are a few issues with their poll[1] and their sampling, by looking at their responses it appears they surveyed primary car drivers not SUV or Trucks, while SUV's and Trucks are the top selling class of vehicles this leads me to believe they have problems with their sampling and have a bias towards people that would naturally be more prone to accept BEV replacement I also take issue with the phrasing of their questions around the public policy being proposed for 2030. [1]https://static1.squarespace.com/static/5888d6bad2b857a30238e864/t/618ee395e92b2f2db7daf219/1636754326823/National+Poll+Toplines+1111.pdf https://static1.squarespace.com/static/5888d6bad2b857a30238e...
- JumpinJack_Cash 4y ago
  All this stuff is just words . Such commitments can be reversed by approximately 57000 people in the specific counties in battleground states And when the US pulls out of something everyone follows suit for obvious reasons.
- seydor 4y ago
  It would be interesting to know what europeans feel about EVs after the war
WillPostForFood 4y ago
100% electric in the next ~15 years (soon?) is the dominant rhetoric in the industry, and from the regulators. https://www.gov.ca.gov/2022/08/25/california-enacts-world-leading-plan-to-achieve-100-percent-zero-emission-vehicles-by-2035-cut-pollution/ https://www.gov.ca.gov/2022/08/25/california-enacts-world-le... https://www.nytimes.com/2021/01/28/business/gm-zero-emission-vehicles.html https://www.nytimes.com/2021/01/28/business/gm-zero-emission...

Has anybody ever claimed the auto industry will go 100% electric anytime soon? Feels like Toyota is trying to setup a straw man. More surprising to me was that the Toyota CEO is named Toyoda.

rhaway84773 4y ago

The Japanese auto makers are also against EVs in favor of hydrogen because Japan’s economy is driven by conglomerates who make a lot of money building heavy machinery etc which are better served by hydrogen than electricity. As a result the Japanese carmakers have shied from investing in EVs since the soft edict from top was to build hydrogen instead. It’s not a coincidence that the first Japanese car company that jumped right into EVs was Nissan when it was being headed by Ghosn, who isn’t Japanese himself. (The Prius doesn’t count…that was Toyota’s answer to CA’s requirements, and was wildly successful beyond what they expected. The fact that Toyota hardly built on the Prius brand for 2 decades tells one all they need to know about how the Japanese automakers staying away from EVs isn’t just a business decision, but is being driven by other considerations).

robocat 4y ago
> The Prius doesn’t count…that was Toyota’s answer to CA’s requirements That sounded a bit US-centric - so I did a quick Google and found that belief is incorrect: Sales in Japan were extremely strong from the outset, buoyed by Prius winning Japan’s Car of the Year award for 1998. By May 2000 more than 40,000 units had been sold and production capacity was increased to 3,000 a month in anticipation of its arrival in refreshed form (XW11 chassis) in export markets. Initial testing in the U.S., in 1999, before release to the general public nearly sidelined the Prius before its debut. The few drivers involved in the testing were less than impressed. That, combined with no way to determine a viable buyer market for the Prius, almost halted the car’s journey outside of Japan. [USA 2000]Nevertheless, the Prius caught on. Toyota was pleasantly surprised that sales the first year exceeded projections and when some Hollywood stars took notice (and purchased the vehicles), things only go better. Edit: Wow - buoyed US pronunciation: https://youtu.be/sx419urqnkE?t=460 https://youtu.be/sx419urqnkE?t=460 - found using https://youglish.com/ https://youglish.com/ cf. buoyancy

kqr 4y ago

It's been a family company for 100+ years, and the CEO has almost always been a member of the Toyoda family.

dom96 4y ago
[flagged]
- gjsman-1000 4y ago
  Having my grandkids running my family business is nepotism? Whatever.
  - sokoloff 4y ago
    Most probably it literally is nepotism. It’s possible that for two generations in a row the most qualified person to succeed the previous was a family member, but it’s nowhere near as common as actually happens in practice in family businesses. It’s also your family’s right to do that, so there’s no need to pretend it’s not nepotism.
    - kqr 4y ago
      Note that There's more than natural selection at play here. I wouldn't be surprised if the offspring have been groomed from a very early age to take over the company. Is it such a surprise that they would seem best fit?
    - ladon86 4y ago
      In Japan it is quite common for an unrelated executive to be chosen as the successor, and they will then either marry a daughter of the CEO or even be adopted by him before taking over. This ensures that the company remains a “family business” (a desirable label in Japan) but it isn’t necessarily by blood, rather they become family via their success in the business. So it’s often not nepotism as we know it - it’s almost reverse nepotism! Edit: This is not the case for the Toyodas, however. All leaders of Toyota were indeed descended from the founder.

seydor 4y ago

Many countries have laws making electric mandatory in ~ decade

voisin 4y ago
Making electric mandatory or banning ICE? Very different things. One gives electric a monopoly, the other doesn’t.
- deleted 4y ago
  [deleted]
- Traubenfuchs 4y ago
  https://www.reuters.com/markets/europe/eu-approves-effective-ban-new-fossil-fuel-cars-2035-2022-10-27/#:~:text=BRUSSELS%2C%20Oct%2027%20(Reuters),vehicles%20and%20combat%20climate%20change https://www.reuters.com/markets/europe/eu-approves-effective.... "The European Union struck a deal on Thursday on a law to effectively ban the sale of new petrol and diesel cars from 2035, aiming to speed up the switch to electric vehicles and combat climate change." I want to see that!
  - criddell 4y ago
    That cover the EU, but there's a whole lot more to the world than that. I'll be surprised if there are no fossil fuel cars being made or sold in China and Russia in 15 years. Even in the US, I'm pretty sure the defense department hasn't set a deadline for eliminating fossil fuels from their fleet and they buy a lot of vehicles, making them one of the planet's largest polluters.
rootusrootus 4y ago
Most regulation that I've seen specifies electrified, which includes hybrids, not limited to just BEVs. There are perhaps exceptions, but since most people prefer to be outraged, it all gets peddled as "the gov't is going to force you to buy an EV!"
- 4y ago

funstuff007 4y ago

It's pretty easy to find contrary evidence--depending on your exact definition of soon. At COP26, leading automotive companies, businesses, governments, and investors agreed to work towards all new cars and vans being zero emission vehicles by 2035 in leading markets and by 2040 globally. New Polling Shows U.S. Voters Support Full Transition to Electric Cars by 2030 https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/new-polling-shows-us-voters-support-full-transition-to-electric-cars-by-2030-301425402.html https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/new-polling-shows-u...

phpisthebest 4y ago
>>leading automotive companies, businesses, governments, and investors agreed Yes, they are all rent seeking trying to get tax payers to pay for the capital outlays for the transition. >New Polling Shows U.S. Voters Support There are a few issues with their poll[1] and their sampling, by looking at their responses it appears they surveyed primary car drivers not SUV or Trucks, while SUV's and Trucks are the top selling class of vehicles this leads me to believe they have problems with their sampling and have a bias towards people that would naturally be more prone to accept BEV replacement I also take issue with the phrasing of their questions around the public policy being proposed for 2030. [1]https://static1.squarespace.com/static/5888d6bad2b857a30238e864/t/618ee395e92b2f2db7daf219/1636754326823/National+Poll+Toplines+1111.pdf https://static1.squarespace.com/static/5888d6bad2b857a30238e...
JumpinJack_Cash 4y ago
All this stuff is just words . Such commitments can be reversed by approximately 57000 people in the specific counties in battleground states And when the US pulls out of something everyone follows suit for obvious reasons.
seydor 4y ago
It would be interesting to know what europeans feel about EVs after the war

WillPostForFood 4y ago

100% electric in the next ~15 years (soon?) is the dominant rhetoric in the industry, and from the regulators. https://www.gov.ca.gov/2022/08/25/california-enacts-world-leading-plan-to-achieve-100-percent-zero-emission-vehicles-by-2035-cut-pollution/ https://www.gov.ca.gov/2022/08/25/california-enacts-world-le... https://www.nytimes.com/2021/01/28/business/gm-zero-emission-vehicles.html https://www.nytimes.com/2021/01/28/business/gm-zero-emission...