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Here’s a Fed analyst policy briefing on market valuations today and going forward: https://www.federalreserve.gov//econres/notes/feds-notes/the-coming-long-run-

by ianai 4y ago

Here’s a Fed analyst policy briefing on market valuations today and going forward: https://www.federalreserve.gov//econres/notes/feds-notes/the-coming-long-run-slowdown-in-corporate-profit-growth-and-stock-returns-20220906.html https://www.federalreserve.gov//econres/notes/feds-notes/the... It’s an insight into how they’re thinking for one. For two, the conditions that led to the current economic situation are unlikely to be present in the future. In many cases those situations can’t be reproduced because they would require highly unlikely situations (another pandemic) or impossible situations like the fed going to negative interest rates or near zero tax rates. Further, population growth is one solid, bedrock economic growth truism. Some of this could be ameliorated by the US taking a “send us your weak, your poor, etc” mindset to immigration. This is how things were pre-2010, ish.

fallingknife 4y ago
Population growth is great for GDP growth, but not necessarily quality of life.
- anm89 4y ago
  Crazy to me that this is downvoted. It's the core truth of our debt based economic system. Our economic system will explode violently in a default cascade without population growth or productivity growth and we haven't been able to figure out ways to consistently increase productivity, which is to say we need population growth to sustain our way of life. It's why deflation is the boogeyman. Deflation is basically a win in a society with zero debt. Deflation is a humanitarian crisis at 130% public debt to gdp and whatever ~300% total debt to gdp we are at. But population growth is a net loss for most of us. More plastic waste. More energy consumed and emissions created, more space taken up etc. There's already more than enough of us by any metric except the amount of gdp growth required to keep our economy running.
  - zirgs 4y ago
    The population of my country has been falling for 30 years in a row and yet its GDP is rising. How could that be?
    - anm89 4y ago
      I don't think this is that complicated. Exactly as I literally said in the above post, the combination of labor quantity * productivity = output. if your labor quantity goes down but productivity goes up gdp can go up. This isn't my opinion, it's how economics define those terms. Also, labor quantity can go up or stay flat while total population goes down

by ianai 4y ago

fallingknife 4y ago

Population growth is great for GDP growth, but not necessarily quality of life.

anm89 4y ago
Crazy to me that this is downvoted. It's the core truth of our debt based economic system. Our economic system will explode violently in a default cascade without population growth or productivity growth and we haven't been able to figure out ways to consistently increase productivity, which is to say we need population growth to sustain our way of life. It's why deflation is the boogeyman. Deflation is basically a win in a society with zero debt. Deflation is a humanitarian crisis at 130% public debt to gdp and whatever ~300% total debt to gdp we are at. But population growth is a net loss for most of us. More plastic waste. More energy consumed and emissions created, more space taken up etc. There's already more than enough of us by any metric except the amount of gdp growth required to keep our economy running.
- zirgs 4y ago
  The population of my country has been falling for 30 years in a row and yet its GDP is rising. How could that be?
  - anm89 4y ago
    I don't think this is that complicated. Exactly as I literally said in the above post, the combination of labor quantity * productivity = output. if your labor quantity goes down but productivity goes up gdp can go up. This isn't my opinion, it's how economics define those terms. Also, labor quantity can go up or stay flat while total population goes down