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I'm willing to believe the mRNA vaccines have "saved a lot of lives" but there is a study that I haven't yet seen and I'd like to see: compare the number of dea

I'm willing to believe the mRNA vaccines have "saved a lot of lives" but there is a study that I haven't yet seen and I'd like to see: compare the number of deaths per hundred thousand in 2022 between the vaccinated and unvaccinated broken down into ten year age groups. 2022 because it's the year that the omicron strain has dominated. My hypothesis is that there will be no significant difference below 60 and an advantage for the vaccinated above 60, but that's just my guess and I'd like to see this very simple study done.

headsoup 4y ago
Curiously they mostly stopped reporting on that this year. Below 50's were never even close to high risk and as soon as it was known (which was very) the vaccines didn't prevent spread they should have immediately been halted for all low risk age groups.
- chezelenkoooo 4y ago
  Did you try googling? The chance of death is low for those up to 50. But vaccines even further reduce that. https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.scientificamerican.com/article/how-to-compare-covid-deaths-for-vaccinated-and-unvaccinated-people/%3famp=true https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.scientificamerican.com/arti... Here's another one with a bit more of a specific breakdown https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&url=https://doh.wa.gov/sites/default/files/2022-02/421-010-CasesInNotFullyVaccinated.pdf&ved=2ahUKEwiz-_3Dr5f8AhXY7zgGHTaDDCEQFnoECAwQAQ&usg=AOvVaw0EJvgFOGcQe1H8EdY5R5o6 https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&url=https:/...
  - headsoup 4y ago
    Ooh yes, googling, the way to get the true and correct data first time, every time. Unfortunately at this point there is no way to see if the vaccines have actually saved lives because a) they don't stop the virus or its spread, it is not confirmed that the vaccines haven't caused significantly more covid infections by being leaky (look up 'Leaky Vaccines,'[1] or OAS (original antigenic sin)) and they have encouraged high risk behaviour in the false belief the vaccines provide sufficient protection. I mean I don't even see any ads or posters around any more advising on hygiene improvements like not shaking hands, getting out in the sun, eating healthily, look after the weak and elderly, etc. People just take the vaccine as their safety blanket and worse, are signing their kids up for it when they were never a risk vector (until mid-covid the 'science' changed on that). If you can point me to a study that conclusively shows vaccines absolutely saved lives over the longer term (that aren't based on models full of positive assumptions on efficacy and effectiveness), I'm happy to read it. [1] example: https://boriquagato.substack.com/p/theres-something-antigenic-in-denmark https://boriquagato.substack.com/p/theres-something-antigeni...
DiogenesKynikos 4y ago
Exactly the sort of analysis you're describing was done in Hong Kong this year: [0]. The results are clear: the rate of severe or fatal cases was many times higher for unvaccinated people in all age groups. For people aged 20-59, three doses (of either mRNA or inactivated virus vaccines) reduced the chance of severe or fatal disease by nearly 99%. Efficacy actually drops with age: for >80-year-olds, there's only a 97% reduction in risk (though because the starting risk is much higher, they get a larger overall benefit). This was with Omicron, by the way. In an unprotected population, Omicron is still very destructive. 0. "Vaccine effectiveness of one, two, and three doses of BNT162b2 and CoronaVac against COVID-19 in Hong Kong: a population-based observational study", The Lancet Infectious Diseases, July 2022: https://doi.org/10.1016/S1473-3099(22)00345-0 https://doi.org/10.1016/S1473-3099(22)00345-0
- briandon 4y ago
  News from Christmas Eve (Dec 24), Google Translated: There were 39 new deaths in Hong Kong today, of which 37 died in public hospitals and 2 were reported by public mortuaries. There are 37 newly reported deaths of patients infected with the new coronavirus, including 23 males and 14 females, aged between 50 and 104 years old. Among the newly reported deceased patients, 14 were from institutions. As for vaccination, 5 had no injection information, 3 received 4 left injections, 25 received 3 left injections, 2 received 2 left injections, and 2 received 1 left injection. Source: 原文網址: 疫情｜增21,362宗確診三兒童情況危殆七日平均死亡人數突破40 | 香港01 https://www.hk01.com/article/850466 https://www.hk01.com/article/850466 Of the 39 deceased, all of whom were 50+ and 14 of whom were care home residents, only 5 were unvaccinated, 3 had received 4 shots, and 33 of the 39 had received at least 2 shots. That matches or exceeds the vaccination rate for their age demographics.
  - DiogenesKynikos 4y ago
    Without knowing the rate of vaccination in the population (particularly in the elderly population), the data you gave means nothing. Just to illustrate the point, in a fully vaccinated population, every person who dies will be vaccinated. I cited a study that does a rigorous statistical analysis.

headsoup 4y ago

Curiously they mostly stopped reporting on that this year. Below 50's were never even close to high risk and as soon as it was known (which was very) the vaccines didn't prevent spread they should have immediately been halted for all low risk age groups.

chezelenkoooo 4y ago
Did you try googling? The chance of death is low for those up to 50. But vaccines even further reduce that. https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.scientificamerican.com/article/how-to-compare-covid-deaths-for-vaccinated-and-unvaccinated-people/%3famp=true https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.scientificamerican.com/arti... Here's another one with a bit more of a specific breakdown https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&url=https://doh.wa.gov/sites/default/files/2022-02/421-010-CasesInNotFullyVaccinated.pdf&ved=2ahUKEwiz-_3Dr5f8AhXY7zgGHTaDDCEQFnoECAwQAQ&usg=AOvVaw0EJvgFOGcQe1H8EdY5R5o6 https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&url=https:/...
- headsoup 4y ago
  Ooh yes, googling, the way to get the true and correct data first time, every time. Unfortunately at this point there is no way to see if the vaccines have actually saved lives because a) they don't stop the virus or its spread, it is not confirmed that the vaccines haven't caused significantly more covid infections by being leaky (look up 'Leaky Vaccines,'[1] or OAS (original antigenic sin)) and they have encouraged high risk behaviour in the false belief the vaccines provide sufficient protection. I mean I don't even see any ads or posters around any more advising on hygiene improvements like not shaking hands, getting out in the sun, eating healthily, look after the weak and elderly, etc. People just take the vaccine as their safety blanket and worse, are signing their kids up for it when they were never a risk vector (until mid-covid the 'science' changed on that). If you can point me to a study that conclusively shows vaccines absolutely saved lives over the longer term (that aren't based on models full of positive assumptions on efficacy and effectiveness), I'm happy to read it. [1] example: https://boriquagato.substack.com/p/theres-something-antigenic-in-denmark https://boriquagato.substack.com/p/theres-something-antigeni...

DiogenesKynikos 4y ago

Exactly the sort of analysis you're describing was done in Hong Kong this year: [0]. The results are clear: the rate of severe or fatal cases was many times higher for unvaccinated people in all age groups. For people aged 20-59, three doses (of either mRNA or inactivated virus vaccines) reduced the chance of severe or fatal disease by nearly 99%. Efficacy actually drops with age: for >80-year-olds, there's only a 97% reduction in risk (though because the starting risk is much higher, they get a larger overall benefit). This was with Omicron, by the way. In an unprotected population, Omicron is still very destructive. 0. "Vaccine effectiveness of one, two, and three doses of BNT162b2 and CoronaVac against COVID-19 in Hong Kong: a population-based observational study", The Lancet Infectious Diseases, July 2022: https://doi.org/10.1016/S1473-3099(22)00345-0 https://doi.org/10.1016/S1473-3099(22)00345-0

briandon 4y ago
News from Christmas Eve (Dec 24), Google Translated: There were 39 new deaths in Hong Kong today, of which 37 died in public hospitals and 2 were reported by public mortuaries. There are 37 newly reported deaths of patients infected with the new coronavirus, including 23 males and 14 females, aged between 50 and 104 years old. Among the newly reported deceased patients, 14 were from institutions. As for vaccination, 5 had no injection information, 3 received 4 left injections, 25 received 3 left injections, 2 received 2 left injections, and 2 received 1 left injection. Source: 原文網址: 疫情｜增21,362宗確診三兒童情況危殆七日平均死亡人數突破40 | 香港01 https://www.hk01.com/article/850466 https://www.hk01.com/article/850466 Of the 39 deceased, all of whom were 50+ and 14 of whom were care home residents, only 5 were unvaccinated, 3 had received 4 shots, and 33 of the 39 had received at least 2 shots. That matches or exceeds the vaccination rate for their age demographics.
- DiogenesKynikos 4y ago
  Without knowing the rate of vaccination in the population (particularly in the elderly population), the data you gave means nothing. Just to illustrate the point, in a fully vaccinated population, every person who dies will be vaccinated. I cited a study that does a rigorous statistical analysis.