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The future isn’t as certain as the last 200 years? Just in the previous century we had two world wars, followed by a period with serious threats of all out nucl

The future isn’t as certain as the last 200 years? Just in the previous century we had two world wars, followed by a period with serious threats of all out nuclear war. I’d say we’re not necessarily doing worse than that right now.

dvko 4y ago
It really depends on how the climate crisis will unfold. We’re on par for well over 2 degrees of warming with no real solution in sight, so it remains to be seen how everything will turn out.
nabaraz 4y ago
Case in point: Covid killed 6M people (0.0008% of world's population). 200 years ago, it would have been much much higher.
- Retric 4y ago
  8 billion / 6.7 million is 1/1,200 or 0.00084 which is 0.084% not 0.0008%. You forgot that % means shifting the decimal 2 places to the left. Also, “A recent assessment of health information systems capacity in 133 countries found that the percentage of registered deaths ranged from 98% in the European region to only 10% in the African region.” https://www.who.int/data/stories/the-true-death-toll-of-covid-19-estimating-global-excess-mortality https://www.who.int/data/stories/the-true-death-toll-of-covi.... Actual death totals are likely closer to 15 Million than 7. Thus the real death total is likely around 0.2% of global population which is still quite far from the Black Death etc, but far from meaningless.
  - neuronic 4y ago
    Additionally, a lot of the negative consequences due to COVID are not caught in the death rate statistics. Long COVID/Post-viral syndrome and related long term health issues are doing a number on economies and healthcare systems around the globe. Secondary deaths are also not counted, for example due to reduced quality of care in stressed healthcare systems. Try getting ER treatment in China right now...
- deleted 4y ago
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nroets 4y ago
I agree with his expectation that economic growth will be very slow. More importantly, there's a savings glut: A high savings rate in Asia (China in particular) caused real interest rates to become permanently negative. Some of that money spilled over into the stock market where P/E ratios are still very high. Expect stock market returns to be very poor over the next couple of decades.
texasbigdata 4y ago
Your financial returns will approximate world gdp plus a premium for risk tolerance adjusted for volatility. The OPs comment is directionally correct as gdp growth above 10% is harder to find nowadays and lower than 2% is much easier to find
marginalia_nu 4y ago
200 years is an odd figure. If you replace it with 80 years it becomes reasonable enough. The post-war prosperity has been a long historical anomaly. A century of prosperity is not historically unprecedented, just relatively rare, and easy to take for granted. What we're facing now is more like a return to what the world has looked for the most of its history.

dvko 4y ago

It really depends on how the climate crisis will unfold. We’re on par for well over 2 degrees of warming with no real solution in sight, so it remains to be seen how everything will turn out.

nabaraz 4y ago

Case in point: Covid killed 6M people (0.0008% of world's population). 200 years ago, it would have been much much higher.

Retric 4y ago
8 billion / 6.7 million is 1/1,200 or 0.00084 which is 0.084% not 0.0008%. You forgot that % means shifting the decimal 2 places to the left. Also, “A recent assessment of health information systems capacity in 133 countries found that the percentage of registered deaths ranged from 98% in the European region to only 10% in the African region.” https://www.who.int/data/stories/the-true-death-toll-of-covid-19-estimating-global-excess-mortality https://www.who.int/data/stories/the-true-death-toll-of-covi.... Actual death totals are likely closer to 15 Million than 7. Thus the real death total is likely around 0.2% of global population which is still quite far from the Black Death etc, but far from meaningless.
- neuronic 4y ago
  Additionally, a lot of the negative consequences due to COVID are not caught in the death rate statistics. Long COVID/Post-viral syndrome and related long term health issues are doing a number on economies and healthcare systems around the globe. Secondary deaths are also not counted, for example due to reduced quality of care in stressed healthcare systems. Try getting ER treatment in China right now...
deleted 4y ago
[deleted]

nroets 4y ago

I agree with his expectation that economic growth will be very slow. More importantly, there's a savings glut: A high savings rate in Asia (China in particular) caused real interest rates to become permanently negative. Some of that money spilled over into the stock market where P/E ratios are still very high. Expect stock market returns to be very poor over the next couple of decades.

texasbigdata 4y ago

Your financial returns will approximate world gdp plus a premium for risk tolerance adjusted for volatility. The OPs comment is directionally correct as gdp growth above 10% is harder to find nowadays and lower than 2% is much easier to find

marginalia_nu 4y ago

200 years is an odd figure. If you replace it with 80 years it becomes reasonable enough. The post-war prosperity has been a long historical anomaly. A century of prosperity is not historically unprecedented, just relatively rare, and easy to take for granted. What we're facing now is more like a return to what the world has looked for the most of its history.