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Most strong statements end up false. Even more weak statements wind up false. "Weak statements" have no inherently better Bayesian prior to being more true th
by bsder 4y ago
Most strong statements end up false. Even more weak statements wind up false.
"Weak statements" have no inherently better Bayesian prior to being more true than "strong statements".
- 324tgresgw 4y agoI'd claim the opposite. The weaker a statement, the more flexible it is. A pretty much maximally weak statement is "something will or will not happen". It's true with 100% certainty. And it's quite useless, since it doesn't actually state anything meaningful. The more concrete and thus stronger you make a statement, the more you risk it turning up false. There are certainly outliers and exception, but there should be a pretty good correlation between strength of a statement and its likelihood of eventually not turning out true.