7 ms·
I am quite sure, that if a sufficient bounty was given out for developing new kinds of antimicrobials, they'd be developed in no time. The problem is that cost
by zosima 4y ago
I am quite sure, that if a sufficient bounty was given out for developing new kinds of antimicrobials, they'd be developed in no time.
The problem is that cost and risk of development and trials is too large for the current rewards, and hence there is very little new antimicrobials being developed. There are very many promising leads though, and either making development cheaper (by requiring smaller or fewer clinical trials) or ensuring good prices or bounties for successful development would likely create a plethora of antimicrobials in a quite short time frame.
- lofatdairy 4y agoThis is actually completely right. I believe there's some policy in the works in the US after talking to a friend who's doing some consulting work to help align the Cost-Benefit side of antimicrobial development. I can't say if there's a plethora of drugs just waiting to be released after CT requirements are lowered, but definitely there is less of an R&D incentive currently because pts who take antimicrobials only take them temporarily and cases where you need an advanced antimicrobial to deal with an AMR case are thankfully uncommon. Edit: I think this is the specific bill: https://www.congress.gov/bill/117th-congress/house-bill/3932/text https://www.congress.gov/bill/117th-congress/house-bill/3932...
- azinman2 4y agoThere’s also pharma world wide. Seems the system is broken if only massive economic upside in the US is what leads to drug discovery and successful clinical trials.
- tormeh 4y agoTesting requirements are as high in other rich countries. And existing antibiotics work fine atm. Nobody’s gonna pay to use new ones unless there’s no alternative, both for cost and resistance reasons. So why bother? Might as well postpone development until there’s a real market, right? I actually think this is good since it means we postpone usage of, and thereby resistance to, any new antibiotics.
- Retric 4y agoYes and no. Many strategies for delaying antibiotic resistance require having multiple different effective antibiotics at the same time. Thus, getting down to the point where only a few work rapidly speeds up antibiotic resistance. Unfortunately, antibiotics are the tragedy of the commons writ large, and we’ve been wasting them for minimal gain because even minor private benefit generally outweighs long term consequences.
- everforward 4y agoThe reason not to postpone development is because it isn't a particularly quick solution. It would be one thing to develop and test them, and then postpone deployment of them. It's another thing to not have a backup plan and hope that one of the antibiotic candidates work out, and quickly. Modern cities are a huge disease vector. That kind of population density lets sickness run rampant. Untreated TB has something like a 25% mortality rate, and we've already seen drug-resistant (DR) and extreme drug-resistant (XDR) strains of TB. An outbreak of TB that we have no antibiotics for would be devastating.
- mikeiz404 4y agoEdit: Apparently broad spectrum antibiotics can actually lead to antimicrobial resistance [1][2] —- > I actually think this is good since it means we postpone usage of, and thereby resistance to, any new antibiotics. This is true if you use them in isolation but I thought broad spectrum antibiotics, aka many at once, is what is typical now to slow down development of resistance? In this case you’d want to develop a few new ones and deploy them in batch. 1: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Broad-spectrum_antibiotic https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Broad-spectrum_antibiotic 2: https://www.science.org/content/article/combining-antibiotics-may-backfire https://www.science.org/content/article/combining-antibiotic...
- Retric 4y agoSeems likely there’s a fairly small number of possible classes of broad spectrum antibiotics that can be developed. Bacteria don’t just evolve resistance to a single molecule but instead to a vector of attack, and anything you’re giving to people needs to avoid harming human cells. So ultimately the question becomes how many types of attack are possible?
- tehjoker 4y agowhy do we need "rewards"? just have a national lab produce them
- _heimdall 4y agoIf this ends up being the approach, I really hope it will be led by a country with a few decades experience in successfully being socialist. The US really has no business doing this, the government departments and oversight boards that exist today are much too compromised by the pharmaceutical industry to pull this off.
- bigDinosaur 4y agoA national laboratory is not a socialist idea. If it were then the US would actually be an extremely socialist country given its government spending. Doesn't the US put out the most research in the world, and have the most Nobel prizes? That hardly seems like a country that can't manage this. Nowhere is free of bureaucracy.
- _heimdall 4y agoNationalization of research laboratories is a very socialist idea. That doesn't make it bad or inefficient, but government takeover of research and education has pretty solid roots in socialism, Marxism, and fascism. The US does spend the most and that leads to output, but that doesn't mean it's the most efficient or does the best job of prioritizing the populations best interests over political or business concerns. The selection process of awards like the Nobel Prize is also at risk of bias given that many of the people involved in picking the winners are themselves part of the national laboratory machine. Regardless, my point was simply that we probably have a better chance at a Swedish effort leading to less biased and more efficient research than one from the US right now. I wasn't aiming for a debate on the relative political roots or leanings of publicly funded research labs.
- knightofmars 4y agoI agree with you here. A parallel example being the IRS and tax reform that's prevented by private companies in the tax preparation domain.
- rvba 4y agoThe problem with developing a new antibiotic is that doctors from third world countries will prescribe them like candy - so the bacteria become resistant to it fast. In fact Im very scared when I read that there are plans to use antibiotics "borrowed" from ants, or bees, because probably the antibiotic will be dumped by tons and become useless after 2-3 years, while all the ants or bees in the world die out. Apart from third world countries giving antibiotics like candy, other problem are farmers, who also feed the livestock by the bucket. That's how we get bacteria resistant to everything. The brutal reality is that new antibiotics cannot be sent to some countries, but that is very difficult to do.
- prox 4y agoNot only third world, I have read several articles over the years that it is (was?) prevalent in the US as well.
- connicpu 4y agoYeah, many urgent care doctors here will prescribe antibiotics just to get the patient out of there as fast as they can even when they almost certainly have a viral infection
- s1artibartfast 4y agoNot my experience. Many doctors seem very hesitant to prescribe antibiotics. Even 10 years ago I was in the ER for a deep flush wound from shop accident, almost killed myself. Had a large open wound from a dirty saw. They made sure I was up my my tentis shot but no antibiotics. When I asked about them, they said they would treat if an infection presented itself but not before
- tobylane 4y agoIs that a third world countries issue? I’ve heard of it in the UK, there are a lot of comments on this page about it in the US. Your point about livestock is good, but that is definitely happening in the UK and US.
- 4y ago
- bluGill 4y agoI'm not sure. Not only do you need to kill bacteria, you need to not kill or harm humans at the same time. That is a high bar.
- Spooky23 4y agoYou need to kill bacteria, not kill humans and print money. The optimal strategy is to wait as long as possible as the value of a novel drug goes up as resistance goes up.
- tormeh 4y agoHot take, but I actually think this is good since it means we postpone usage of, and thereby resistance to, any new antibiotics. The second there’s a new antibiotic, poor countries are going to over-use generics of it and create resistance.
- Spooky23 4y agoIf the economics were rational, I’d agree with you. Humans inability to effectively organize doesn’t matter to the bacteria. As a species, we have the ability to understand that what happens in impoverished areas impacts us all. The smart move would be to rethink healthcare, globally. Otherwise, those bacteria, who can’t argue, will just relentlessly keep evolving.
- TheJoeMan 4y agoAnother factor to consider is it’s much better for social good to wait until you have 2-3 working new antibiotics to mix together to reduce the survival rate exponentially. But that would require delaying the short term profits of selling the single-cocktail twice.
- randomguy12 4y agoantibiotic cocktails are tricky - sometimes using multiple antibiotics can reduce clearance. This is a really good paper on the topic: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-022-05260-5 https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-022-05260-5
- JumpCrisscross 4y ago> risk of development and trials is too large Anecdotally, from two (albeit leading) microbiologists, an additional risk if the cultural one. The thinking being, if you work on a semi-marginal anti microbial, it’s less important, but nobody will protest your margins. Versus if you develop something game changing, chances are the powers that be will take it from you.
- SergeAx 4y agoAs we just saw with the COVID-19 vaccines, you may develop game changing drug, almost skip the testing phase and profit hugely off it, if the demand is high enough.
- MobileVet 4y agoThe mRNA vaccines were tested on 10ks of people before they were released to the general public. While the timelines were sped up and access to larger bodies of test subjects, the testing phase was not skipped by any stretch
- encryptluks2 4y agoSo we're just going to forget that the labs faked test results and lied? Before you downvote as fake news, a Democratic AG sued over it.
- ItsHarper 4y agoI think you're talking about this, which is about a shady company faking COVID test results, not faking vaccine test results. https://blockclubchicago.org/2022/01/19/center-for-covid-control-faked-test-results-minnesota-attorney-generals-office-says-in-new-lawsuit/ https://blockclubchicago.org/2022/01/19/center-for-covid-con...
- hourago 4y ago> The problem is that cost and risk of development and trials is too large for the current rewards, This kind of invesment has been traditionally done by governments. But with a reduction of taxation governments do not have animore money to do this. And for private companies it makes more sense to spend that kind of money in advertisment than in developing new products. > ensuring good prices or bounties for successful development would likely create a plethora of antimicrobials in a quite short time frame. If one woman has a child in 9 months. How many months takes to 9 women? More money may accelerate development, but there is a limit on how much faster one can go. Give a big enough reward and you will find more corporations cheating and lobbyng to get that money without delivering any actual antimicrobials. Public research institutions seem a very good middle ground. Give pasionate scientist funding and they will come with solutions. Give passionate CEOs money and you get the next big scam.
- epicureanideal 4y ago> But with a reduction of taxation I’m pretty sure government tax revenue is still at or near all time highs. As the population grows there’s more and more taxes to spend for this purpose. It’s just a matter of priorities.
- wnevets 4y ago> As the population grows there’s more and more taxes to spend for this purpose. but so does the cost to service that growing population.
- epicureanideal 4y agoBasic research scales in a way that treating specific individuals doesn’t. Treating specific individuals can be handled by insurance.
- wnevets 4y agoAny increase in general tax revenue generated by an increase in population is going to used for the new population. For example NASA's budget didn't increase just because of an increase in population
- headsoup 4y agoJust need some governments to mandate them, then no worries
- unity1001 4y ago> The problem is that cost and risk of development and trials is too large for the current rewards, and hence there is very little new antimicrobials being developed If that is so, then that research should be done by the state. The well-being of entire human race cannot be tied to monetary incentives of profiteering.
- version_five 4y agoWhat are examples of the state actually achieving a research objective better than free enterprise?
- dap 4y agoI’m not sure, but what about the space program in the 1960s?
- version_five 4y agoI thought of that too. I don't know enough about it to know if it's a legit counterpoint. My view is that real competition is necessary to efficiently and effectively get to a solution, versus focusing on the bureaucratic mechanics of running the machine that's supposed to be building the solution, which is what happens when government takes things on. But the space program, and maybe the Manhattan project, actually had real, credible competition, even if it wasn't economic, so maybe were able to escape the bureaucratic trap. Something less urgent (even if it is on paper) like antibiotic resistance, I'm not convinced presents the kind of competition that would actually substitute for a competitive market.
- unity1001 4y ago> I don't know enough about it to know if it's a legit counterpoint. Its a gigantic counterpoint. A large swath of the technology used today was developed by NASA and then turned over to the private corporations for them to profit. Socializing the costs. Privatizing the profits. The Internet iself an argument. It was developed at DARPA with taxpayer money. Then turned over to the private corporations so that they could profit. Another case of socialism for the corporations.
- Gatsky 4y agoNot sure I agree. Take a look at recently developed antimicrobials. It’s not like there haven’t been any new ones. The problem is this: they are very expensive compared to older antimicrobials (so don’t get used at all except in wealthy healthcare systems) and they are tightly held in reserve for only the most resistant cases (so very small market). The latter point is particularly insurmountable, since widespread use will make the new antimicrobial less useful. It isn’t really worth it for a drug maker. The article talks about this, indicating that public-private partnerships are the way forward.
- Fomite 4y agoThey also tend to not be new families of antimicrobials with novel mechanisms of action, which is what's needed for more significant gains against resistance.
- hristov 4y agoWhat if new antimicrobials do get developed? They will once again be used in massive quantities in dirty and otherwise unsanitary livestock operations, resistant bacteria will develop again and we will be where we started again. Actually we will be at a worse place from where we started because all new antimicrobials that do get developed seem ever more dangerous with ever increasing lists of ever more serious side effects. The large livestock operations keep their livestock in horrible unsanitary conditions to save money and they create a breeding petry dish for bacteria. They rely on antibiotics to kill the bacteria but in those conditions the bacteria have all the advantages and usually are able to create resistant stains pretty quick.
- thayne 4y agoOne way to handle that could be to regulate when the new drugs are used, and only allow use for humans when there are resistant microbes.
- DoughnutHole 4y agoThis would require massive international cooperation and possibly even sanctions on countries with lax regulations. If you have one country with lax or no antibiotic regulations then that country is going to continue breeding antibiotic-resistant pathogens. Those pathogens will pretty much inevitably escape out to more responsible countries. This is theoretically doable, but as it stands you can't even get every country to abide by sanctions to discourage proliferation of nuclear weapons.
- Llamamoe 4y agoIIRC, antibiotic resistance fades over time, as genes/mutations coding for it tend to be metabolically disadvantageous. Hypothetically if we had globally enforced cycling of a sufficient amount of antimicrobials, the problem could likely be somewhat minimised.
- coldtea 4y ago>I am quite sure, that if a sufficient bounty was given out for developing new kinds of antimicrobials, they'd be developed in no time. It's dangerous to think such problems can just be solved by throwing money at them...