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> True, but by the same token the West (and the rest of the East, and the world) has no economy without China. It makes everything higher stakes for everyone in
by mordae 4y ago
> True, but by the same token the West (and the rest of the East, and the world) has no economy without China. It makes everything higher stakes for everyone involved.
Both EU and US would actually benefit from manufacturing moving back. EU needs to do something about its stupidly car-centric economy and for US it just might help bring about a cultural shift away from extreme consumerism towards something more sustainable.
> ... supplying a small island is also much harder than supplying a country with a large contiguous land border with you/your allies. All but one of Taiwan's major ports lie on the strait. And since Taiwan is much smaller than Ukraine, it has less strategic depth than Ukraine; there's nowhere for Taiwanese troops to fall back to.
They are armed with missiles to the teeth and they can hit some rather sensitive places in China. They will just claim that they are defending their independent country while China can't really domestically explain carpet or nuclear bombing "their own citizens". And there are unofficial communication lines open to work around censorship.
> I'm increasingly convinced that China's first act of war won't be shipping troops to the beaches but a blockade. That then presents the US with an unenviable choice: escalate to a full on shooting war to break the blockade, or give control of Taiwan's imports/exports (which is to say, Taiwan) to China.
I expect brain drain and leaving rest of the Taiwan to China while officially protesting it and banning Taiwanese products from US/EU markets for a couple of years to help local spin-offs stabilize. But Taiwanese might choose to fight, in which case US/EU will happily supply weapons.
- jorvi 4y ago> EU needs to do something about its stupidly car-centric economy How do you expect anyone to take the rest of your comment serious when you state something like this?
- cscurmudgeon 4y agoWhy? There is a lot of truth to it. https://www.reddit.com/r/fuckcars/comments/qu1ob8/european_cities_arent_that_good/ https://www.reddit.com/r/fuckcars/comments/qu1ob8/european_c... Not as car centric as US or Canada but compared to the rest of the world EU is very car centric. At least the US and Canada are vast and their cities are much more young. Americans have this romantic view of Europe as old dense cities. https://www.confused.com/car-insurance/average-cars-around-the-world#location-2 https://www.confused.com/car-insurance/average-cars-around-t... https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_vehicles_per_capita https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_vehicle...
- jorvi 4y agoThat doesn’t make our economy car-centric… a car-centric economy would mean most of the GDP in the EU originates from automobile production, which is just laughably untrue.
- scarmig 4y ago> US it just might help bring about a cultural shift away from extreme consumerism towards something more sustainable. If the US's best defense against a China-initiated economic war is to give up consumerism, that doesn't give me a great deal of hope for Taiwan. More generally, it would be great for manufacturing to move back to the EU and the US. But that can't happen on the scale of months or even years; in a war with China, we'd face huge supply chain disruptions for the duration. > They are armed with missiles to the teeth and they can hit some rather sensitive places in China. This isn't a realistic appraisal of Taiwan's military capabilities. China dominates Taiwan on all aspects of military power; fanciful ideas about blowing up the Three Gorges Dam aside, China doesn't worry too much about Taiwan's military. > I expect brain drain and leaving rest of the Taiwan to China while officially protesting it and banning Taiwanese products from US/EU markets for a couple of years to help local spin-offs stabilize. As bad and dumb as this outcome would be, China would consider it a total victory. > Taiwanese might choose to fight, in which case US/EU will happily supply weapons. You have to get those weapons to Taiwan somehow, and Taiwan would need to be able to launch them from somewhere. China has effective countermeasures to both if American engagement is limited to that.