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> ...ship capacity to transfer enough troops. You can't just trickle them in Assuming the CCP is willing to throw the PLA(N) into a charnel house, there are ce
by yourapostasy 4y ago
> ...ship capacity to transfer enough troops. You can't just trickle them in
Assuming the CCP is willing to throw the PLA(N) into a charnel house, there are certain scenarios where they can trickle them in after a fashion. The eastern seaboard of China has more than 500,000 fishing vessels that can be mustered across the Strait, even in inclement weather if safety of the boats, crews, and the fire team to squad level passengers and their gear was ignored.
QUAD and Taiwan together doesn’t have enough missiles and anti-ship weaponry to sink enough of these boats to avoid a beachhead being established. In inclement conditions target acquisition of the small boats is very difficult. Not all boats need to hold troops. Not all of them need to be manned at all. Plenty of convoying drones in self-organizing meshes can carry supplies and surviving hulls can run aground at the beachhead to offer supply depots plus cover and concealment for manned boats. The CCP could use the massacre of this missile-absorbing force as a pretext to go nuclear on US CBG’s. They could “throw away” these lives on an unimaginably cruel scale.
And still have more than enough troops left over to mount a legitimate invasion with “real” ships after pretty much all missiles are expended.
There are many ways it can go pear-shaped in a hurry for either side. The only winning move is not to play.
- rapsey 4y agoUsing fishing vessels does not sound all that realistic in terms of logistics.
- scarmig 4y agoIt's probably not the route China will take, but China has pioneered gray zone tactics in the SCS, using paramilitarized fishing ships to harass other vessels and extend its influence. But yeah, transporting hundreds of thousands troops in them through a hot war seems a logistical nightmare.