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> The ISS will be taken out by some space junk. A bold but possible prediction. I've seen a more cautious statistical take somewhere: well above 50% chance of
by SideburnsOfDoom 4y ago
> The ISS will be taken out by some space junk.
A bold but possible prediction.
I've seen a more cautious statistical take somewhere: well above 50% chance of a space-related fatality within the decade. Either from space junk colliding with a crewed station, or space junk falling to earth finally winning the lottery by coming down into a populated area and killing someone.
- SideburnsOfDoom 4y agoOk, I found it: https://arstechnica.com/science/2022/12/space-debris-expert-orbits-will-be-lost-and-people-will-die-later-this-decade/ https://arstechnica.com/science/2022/12/space-debris-expert-... > I predict that we will see a loss of human life by (1) objects ... surviving reentry and hitting a populated area, or (2) people ... having their vehicle getting scwhacked by an unpredicted piece of junk. > I predict that both those things are going to happen in the next decade