All good, but I would add a more likely senario: A stalemate where Ukraine efectivly regains almost all of its territory, Russia is unable to sustain a meaningf

All good, but I would add a more likely senario: A stalemate where Ukraine efectivly regains almost all of its territory, Russia is unable to sustain a meaningful campaign, but Russia continiues limited attacks with missiles and some artilery pokes near the border to avoid lossing face.