3 ms·

I might be missing the distinction you're making here. If you mean if the flip has already occurred, but the result was concealed (for example, the coin is unde

• kgwgk 4y ago
  "the next flip" We're going to flip a coin now. Before the flip, I give you the choice between a) $1 for sure and b) $10 if it comes heads "the previous flip" We have just flipped a coin. After the flip, I give you the choice between a) $1 for sure and b) $10 if it came heads Do you think that these scenarios are equivalent - i.e. is your choice a) or b) the same?
  • inimino 4y ago
    If you know the result of the flip, then no. Otherwise, yes (b for both).
    • kgwgk 4y ago
      The coin flip is different from the boxing match in that sense. Your ignorance regarding the former is the same as everyone else’s - while for the latter others may be better informed.
      • jbay808 4y ago
        For sure! I also wouldn't bet on a coin flip offered by a guy standing next to a 500-kg servo-driven coin-tossing machine. But their confidence in offering me that bet is also useful information to update my probabilities. (This is also why poker is not purely a game of chance.) Probabilities are subjective, so we can always account for other people having more information and different probabilities than we do ourselves. Unfortunately the language of probability does not communicate this very explicitly, so it's easy to forget. With, say, radioactive decay, yes there's no chance anyone has less ignorance than we do, so we can at least be certain the result will be fair. (I don't think we are in any disagreement about this, though).