This reminds me of a simpler situation [1]. I give you a coin, and promise it is biased, but don't tell you the bias. I flip the coin and ask you what is the pr

This reminds me of a simpler situation [1]. I give you a coin, and promise it is biased, but don't tell you the bias. I flip the coin and ask you what is the probability that it landed heads. - A bayesian says the probability of the coin landing heads is 50/50. - A frequentist says the probability of the coin landing heads is anything except 50/50, because the coin was promised to be biased; if it was 50/50 then the coin would be fair not biased. They are of course using the word "probability" slightly differently. The bayesian is talking about an aggregation of the available hypotheses that is useful for betting and predictions, while the frequentist is talking about the individual possible hypotheses going into that aggregation. [1]: https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/f6ZLxEWaankRZ2Crv/probability-is-in-the-mind https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/f6ZLxEWaankRZ2Crv/probabilit...