4 ms·

What about deflation risk?

• voisin 4y ago
  Theoretically with broad based deflation everything does poorly. Deflation is super destabilizing as suddenly all the debt in the economy are secured by assets less valuable than expected and producing less cash flow (cannot have stable or growing cash flows in the aggregate in a deflationary environment), so the dominoes of debt start falling as borrowers default. You’d want to be in cash so you can take advantage of cheap buying opportunities. Realistically, it seems central banks and politicians will die on the hill of deflation and do everything in their power to avoid it, even if it means (as it has in ‘89, ‘01, ‘08, and ‘20) just kicking the can down the road and causing greater, less stable bubbles. That said, look at the stock market - it has been deflationary this year. So cash is King in this environment. Just not so much at the grocery store or when you get your utility bill.