8 ms·

Prediction: Dems will make a move on federal legalization in the months before the 2024 presidential election, or at least make federal legalization a major ele

Prediction: Dems will make a move on federal legalization in the months before the 2024 presidential election, or at least make federal legalization a major election issue. A lot of right wing / libertarian adjacent people were hoping Trump would come out in favor of it as a 2020 election issue, to outflank Biden on at least one issue. It didn't happen, but I bet it would have made the election a bit closer -- it would have cooled support for Biden by a lot of younger and disillusioned voters. I predict they'll make it a campaign issue and force the Republican candidate to come out strongly against it, to try to cool support from a lot of younger and pro-legalization Republicans.

JumpCrisscross 4y ago
Difficult to see what this comment adds to the discussion. The House is divided. So unless the GOP adopts this as their issue, the next chance for change is the next election.
- gamegoblin 4y ago
  The Dems explicitly did not make legalization a notable part of the 2020 national campaign. They focused on making the campaign a referendum on Trump in general and COVID in particular. This was a good strategic play. My comment is that making the 2024 election a referendum on legalization (and a few other big issues like abortion) will likely be the good strategic play. You could imagine a future, though, where they go ignore legalization and focus entirely on abortion and other issues. But they would risk getting outflanked on legalization by a more libertarian-minded Republican, which could cost the election due to reducing turnout of young and disillusioned voters who would otherwise go Dem.
  - BossingAround 4y ago
    > My comment is that making the 2024 election a referendum on legalization My take is that most people don't see cannabis legalization as an important-enough issue. It's kind of "would be nice" issue that's overweighted by issues like economy, democracy, and immigration. I'm not in the US, but that's my only explanation for why hasn't cannabis been legalized on the federal level yet, i.e. that people simply don't care enough about it to even be a part of the discussion.
    - gamegoblin 4y ago
      That's totally possible. There is definitely a potential timeline where it just gets basically ignored. The big divide is really by age. Older voters (in both parties) tend to oppose it. 72% of people under 30 are pro-legalization, but only 30% of people older than 75 are. The average for all US adults is 60%. Younger voters' low turnout messes up the calculus here. But as soon as the number of young voters you'd gain exceeds the number of old voters a candidate would lose, you'll start to see this play out, and I think we're really close to that tipping point.
      - glandium 4y ago
        What your percentages don't say is how many pro-legalization want it bad enough for it to matter more than other issues when considering their vote.
    - pstuart 4y ago
      Part of the problem is that for most people the subject of legalizing cannabis is considered only in the context of "more people are going to use drugs". It needs to be framed in how much it costs society to enforce those laws (both in money and freedom).
Doubtme 4y ago
Cannabis banking came up on this 1.7 trillion dollar bill that just got passed. It wasn't included thanks to Republicans.
- gamegoblin 4y ago
  I think the correct strategic move would be to make it an issue in the months before the election, and try to force the R challenger to come out strongly against it. I would not expect any serious boat rocking right now due to where we are in the political cycle.
  - Doubtme 4y ago
    That is unfortunately not your fault. You see. There is no strategy. So whenever good people try and come up with ideas about literally any subject. the republicans ie McConnell are ready to strike it down 100% of the time. It doesn't matter that it has majority support. It doesn't matter if it helps save American lives. It does not matter what the logistics are or how much money is involved. It does not matter if it helps military veterans and minorities. Every plan. Every thought. Every move. will be without fail. Denied. Denied. Denied. That is their only play. and it will also be their downfall. much like a DDOS attack on a network. All we have to do is create a network stronger then the ones they have in play and they will cease to exist entirely. aka - voting. and with republicans saying don't vote - don't vote with mail in ballots - don't vote early. They got absolutely destroyed pushing their own agenda. Its honestly amazing.
- neuronexmachina 4y ago
  I hadn't heard about that, found more info here: https://thehill.com/policy/finance/3782514-marijuana-advocates-stunned-after-mcconnell-opposition-dooms-banking-bill/ https://thehill.com/policy/finance/3782514-marijuana-advocat... >It passed the House seven times — receiving a whopping 321 votes last year — and had enough GOP support to reach 60 votes in the Senate. >But it did not have the support of McConnell, whose opposition kept it out of the spending bill. >McConnell first blocked the SAFE Banking Act’s inclusion in the defense bill earlier this month, arguing that it would make the U.S. financial system “more sympathetic to illegal drugs.”
scifibestfi 4y ago
It sucks how everything is a political football instead of just doing the right thing. They had full control and could have legalized it. But no, they keep holding onto just to drag voters along every election.
- gamegoblin 4y ago
  It does suck, but it's what the system of democracy we currently have incentivizes. I've kind of become a bit of a voting reform absolutist for this reason. Publicly funded elections, get rid of first-past-the-post plurality voting (and replace with approval, ranked choice, anything really), electoral college reform, Wyoming rule, etc. If these problems were fixed, the incentives to solve the other problems are much more aligned.
  - ratorx 4y ago
    I think the problem is more fundamental than that. There’s no mechanism in the system for feedback on improving the system itself because it would disadvantage the people who have been elected by the current system (since those are the people that have figured out how to exploit it the best). The only current method would be to somehow convince the people in power that they will need to overhaul the system to stay in power in the future. But that’s not gonna happen because the existing loopholes are so massive (e.g. gerrymandering), that they can basically guarantee that anyway. It’s also not a policy issue, and it feels weird to vote for it (or vote for people who promise it), because it’s not a direct thing that will affect your daily life and is more second order than that.
    - Spooky23 4y ago
      You’re right. The federal system is designed to blunt the mob.
    - JumpCrisscross 4y ago
      What’s the Wyoming rule?
klyrs 4y ago
https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/marijuana-banking-bill-excluded-from-year-end-spending-measure-1.1861429 https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/marijuana-banking-bill-excluded-... Actually, they made this move just recently, not tied to an election. But Republicans blocked it in Senate. Obama was elected on his promise of "hope" and "change" and he asked his voter base what to spend his time on. The top two issues were health care and cannabis. He noped cannabis. Perhaps making this an election issue is actually the necessary ingredient to bring republicans on board.
xwowsersx 4y ago
> and force the Republican candidate to come out strongly against it If the polls are to be believed, this seems an unlikely outcome. I don't see a Republican candidate doing this, but stranger things have happened, I guess. https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2022/11/22/americans-overwhelmingly-say-marijuana-should-be-legal-for-medical-or-recreational-use/ https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2022/11/22/americans-o...
- HDThoreaun 4y ago
  The only thing that matters is the primary. Ignore general polls and look at the party ones to see which policies will be championed. Candidates try to back off after they win the primary but it’s usually ineffective and commonly backfires when the opponent calls them a flip flopper.
godelski 4y ago
I used to hold a similar belief but my prediction was that they would do it in two parts: first decriminalize cannabis around the midterms, second, push for legalization around the 2024 election. Decriminalization could have come with talks about performing research, helping minority communities with policing, and allowing banks to work with state producers. Now I just don't think they are as good at political scheming as I thought and potentially that neither party is actually seeking a win so much as seeking drama.
chadlavi 4y ago
Unfortunately Biden himself has a pretty staunchly anti-marijuana track record from his time in the senate. He changed his tune somewhat when he joined the Obama admin but I don't think that push for national legalization is going to come from the Oval Office.
deleted 4y ago
[deleted]

JumpCrisscross 4y ago

Difficult to see what this comment adds to the discussion. The House is divided. So unless the GOP adopts this as their issue, the next chance for change is the next election.

gamegoblin 4y ago
The Dems explicitly did not make legalization a notable part of the 2020 national campaign. They focused on making the campaign a referendum on Trump in general and COVID in particular. This was a good strategic play. My comment is that making the 2024 election a referendum on legalization (and a few other big issues like abortion) will likely be the good strategic play. You could imagine a future, though, where they go ignore legalization and focus entirely on abortion and other issues. But they would risk getting outflanked on legalization by a more libertarian-minded Republican, which could cost the election due to reducing turnout of young and disillusioned voters who would otherwise go Dem.
- BossingAround 4y ago
  > My comment is that making the 2024 election a referendum on legalization My take is that most people don't see cannabis legalization as an important-enough issue. It's kind of "would be nice" issue that's overweighted by issues like economy, democracy, and immigration. I'm not in the US, but that's my only explanation for why hasn't cannabis been legalized on the federal level yet, i.e. that people simply don't care enough about it to even be a part of the discussion.
  - gamegoblin 4y ago
    That's totally possible. There is definitely a potential timeline where it just gets basically ignored. The big divide is really by age. Older voters (in both parties) tend to oppose it. 72% of people under 30 are pro-legalization, but only 30% of people older than 75 are. The average for all US adults is 60%. Younger voters' low turnout messes up the calculus here. But as soon as the number of young voters you'd gain exceeds the number of old voters a candidate would lose, you'll start to see this play out, and I think we're really close to that tipping point.
    - glandium 4y ago
      What your percentages don't say is how many pro-legalization want it bad enough for it to matter more than other issues when considering their vote.
  - pstuart 4y ago
    Part of the problem is that for most people the subject of legalizing cannabis is considered only in the context of "more people are going to use drugs". It needs to be framed in how much it costs society to enforce those laws (both in money and freedom).

Doubtme 4y ago

Cannabis banking came up on this 1.7 trillion dollar bill that just got passed. It wasn't included thanks to Republicans.

gamegoblin 4y ago
I think the correct strategic move would be to make it an issue in the months before the election, and try to force the R challenger to come out strongly against it. I would not expect any serious boat rocking right now due to where we are in the political cycle.
- Doubtme 4y ago
  That is unfortunately not your fault. You see. There is no strategy. So whenever good people try and come up with ideas about literally any subject. the republicans ie McConnell are ready to strike it down 100% of the time. It doesn't matter that it has majority support. It doesn't matter if it helps save American lives. It does not matter what the logistics are or how much money is involved. It does not matter if it helps military veterans and minorities. Every plan. Every thought. Every move. will be without fail. Denied. Denied. Denied. That is their only play. and it will also be their downfall. much like a DDOS attack on a network. All we have to do is create a network stronger then the ones they have in play and they will cease to exist entirely. aka - voting. and with republicans saying don't vote - don't vote with mail in ballots - don't vote early. They got absolutely destroyed pushing their own agenda. Its honestly amazing.
neuronexmachina 4y ago
I hadn't heard about that, found more info here: https://thehill.com/policy/finance/3782514-marijuana-advocates-stunned-after-mcconnell-opposition-dooms-banking-bill/ https://thehill.com/policy/finance/3782514-marijuana-advocat... >It passed the House seven times — receiving a whopping 321 votes last year — and had enough GOP support to reach 60 votes in the Senate. >But it did not have the support of McConnell, whose opposition kept it out of the spending bill. >McConnell first blocked the SAFE Banking Act’s inclusion in the defense bill earlier this month, arguing that it would make the U.S. financial system “more sympathetic to illegal drugs.”

scifibestfi 4y ago

It sucks how everything is a political football instead of just doing the right thing. They had full control and could have legalized it. But no, they keep holding onto just to drag voters along every election.

gamegoblin 4y ago
It does suck, but it's what the system of democracy we currently have incentivizes. I've kind of become a bit of a voting reform absolutist for this reason. Publicly funded elections, get rid of first-past-the-post plurality voting (and replace with approval, ranked choice, anything really), electoral college reform, Wyoming rule, etc. If these problems were fixed, the incentives to solve the other problems are much more aligned.
- ratorx 4y ago
  I think the problem is more fundamental than that. There’s no mechanism in the system for feedback on improving the system itself because it would disadvantage the people who have been elected by the current system (since those are the people that have figured out how to exploit it the best). The only current method would be to somehow convince the people in power that they will need to overhaul the system to stay in power in the future. But that’s not gonna happen because the existing loopholes are so massive (e.g. gerrymandering), that they can basically guarantee that anyway. It’s also not a policy issue, and it feels weird to vote for it (or vote for people who promise it), because it’s not a direct thing that will affect your daily life and is more second order than that.
  - Spooky23 4y ago
    You’re right. The federal system is designed to blunt the mob.
  - JumpCrisscross 4y ago
    What’s the Wyoming rule?

klyrs 4y ago

https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/marijuana-banking-bill-excluded-from-year-end-spending-measure-1.1861429 https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/marijuana-banking-bill-excluded-... Actually, they made this move just recently, not tied to an election. But Republicans blocked it in Senate. Obama was elected on his promise of "hope" and "change" and he asked his voter base what to spend his time on. The top two issues were health care and cannabis. He noped cannabis. Perhaps making this an election issue is actually the necessary ingredient to bring republicans on board.

xwowsersx 4y ago

> and force the Republican candidate to come out strongly against it If the polls are to be believed, this seems an unlikely outcome. I don't see a Republican candidate doing this, but stranger things have happened, I guess. https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2022/11/22/americans-overwhelmingly-say-marijuana-should-be-legal-for-medical-or-recreational-use/ https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2022/11/22/americans-o...

HDThoreaun 4y ago
The only thing that matters is the primary. Ignore general polls and look at the party ones to see which policies will be championed. Candidates try to back off after they win the primary but it’s usually ineffective and commonly backfires when the opponent calls them a flip flopper.

godelski 4y ago

I used to hold a similar belief but my prediction was that they would do it in two parts: first decriminalize cannabis around the midterms, second, push for legalization around the 2024 election. Decriminalization could have come with talks about performing research, helping minority communities with policing, and allowing banks to work with state producers. Now I just don't think they are as good at political scheming as I thought and potentially that neither party is actually seeking a win so much as seeking drama.

chadlavi 4y ago

Unfortunately Biden himself has a pretty staunchly anti-marijuana track record from his time in the senate. He changed his tune somewhat when he joined the Obama admin but I don't think that push for national legalization is going to come from the Oval Office.

deleted 4y ago

[deleted]