A lot of comments here seem to be extremely pessimistic of self driving (not just Tesla, but in general), claiming that it's "decades away". As someone who has

A lot of comments here seem to be extremely pessimistic of self driving (not just Tesla, but in general), claiming that it's "decades away". As someone who has been following fairly closely the advances in self driving, I think most people are underestimating the current state and rate of improvement of these systems. For Tesla, it's currently "L2+". Here's an example[1] of how good or bad it currently is, in a fairly easy environment. Just a year ago it was an absolute mess, even though it still has a long way to go, the improvement rate is really good. In places like Manhattan it's a mess, but I don't think FSD needs to be able to handle Manhattan to be useful, because not everybody lives in Manhattan. For Waymo, it's currently L4 (operating without driver), however available only in very select locations. Here's an example[2] Regarding vision vs lidar, anybody in the field knows that both approaches are viable for self driving[3], it's just a matter of which can get you there sooner (and LIDAR is basically agreed upon to be an easier but more expensive approach). I used to think Tesla FSD was doomed to fail, computer vision good enough for self driving was more than a decade away, but I've changed my mind since. I now think vision based is viable, and really important because it will enable self driving for mainstream cars (not just expensive robotaxis) From what I've seen, Tesla's FSD perception is quite good already, and the majority of the times FSD messes up it's because of it's planner, not because of perception. And that's considering it's cameras and computers are quite old already, when they decide to upgrade them it will lead to a pretty large improvement to perception. My current estimate is that Tesla will achieve L3 in 2 years, and L4 in 4 years. It will require a HW upgrade (cameras and computer). [1] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tRqW9LJZaWY https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tRqW9LJZaWY [2] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=L6mmjqJeDw0 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=L6mmjqJeDw0 [3] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gbyY2AQ_hdc https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gbyY2AQ_hdc Edit: Instead of just downvoting, I'd appreciate if you left a comment pointing out what you disagree with. I'm very interested in this technology and other people's thoughts.