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This is the team that wrote the report: https://www.cer.eu/experts https://www.cer.eu/experts Have a look at their Twitter feeds for a good sense of what these

This is the team that wrote the report: https://www.cer.eu/experts https://www.cer.eu/experts Have a look at their Twitter feeds for a good sense of what these people are about.

coldtea 4y ago
Yeah, nothing easier than a study to prove anything you want. "Brexit to blame for 33B loss" when at the same time we had Covid related slowdown and lockdowns, politicians replacing one another, and the situation in Ukraine and its impact on global gas and other supplies... In any case, the British GDP is 2.6 trillion pounds. 33 billion pounds is a statistical error. To put it in perspective, 12 billion pounds were the cost of the useless one-month fest of the London Olympics... Even the "British Economy 5% smaller than it would have been without Brexit" they get to (which is much worse than a 33 billion pounds loss), is akin to charlatanism to claim, what with the unknowns of covid and current ukraine situation thrown in...
- lern_too_spel 4y ago
  > 33 billion pounds is a statistical error. 5.5% > the unknowns of covid and current ukraine situation thrown in... From the article: "The CER modelled the performance of a “doppelganger” UK – if the nation had remained inside the EU – using data from other advanced economies similar to Britain prior to Brexit, including US, Germany, Norway and Australia." Comparing against similar countries is not much affected by situations that affect those other countries.
  - coldtea 4y ago
    >From the article: "The CER modelled the performance of a “doppelganger” UK – if the nation had remained inside the EU – using data from other advanced economies similar to Britain prior to Brexit, including US, Germany, Norway and Australia." Which borders on the comical. The US e.g. being the top dog bossing other countries around to buy their own gas and profiteering from the war, Norway being an energy producer (and the top 3rd largest gas exporter in the world), Australia being a totally unrelated economy in a whole other region with whole other factors, and Germany controlling European policy (with or without the UK in it). The "study" is trully an art of interpreting data to taste!
- benj111 4y ago
  If someone said that covid cost the economy X would you claim that was charlatanism based on other unknowns, or would you accept that there is some broadly calculable cost of covid? If so then you can work out the cost of Brexit by subtracting that figure. I don't deny it makes things more difficult, but unless you want to give up entirely on attributing costs to such things, you have to accept that the cost of Brexit is also calculable.
  - coldtea 4y ago
    >If so then you can work out the cost of Brexit by subtracting that figure. If only it was just easy, and outcomes from multiple factors could just be isolated and "substracted from the figure". Even the sole "cost of covid" alone, with just the regular uncertainty of measurement would be disputable (whatever it was) - doubly so when it coincides with two huge other affecting factors... Heck, even good old GDP measurements border on charlatanism - and that's under fair weather..
john_throaway 4y ago
It is just a coincidence

This is the team that wrote the report: https://www.cer.eu/experts https://www.cer.eu/experts Have a look at their Twitter feeds for a good sense of what these people are about.

coldtea 4y ago

Yeah, nothing easier than a study to prove anything you want. "Brexit to blame for 33B loss" when at the same time we had Covid related slowdown and lockdowns, politicians replacing one another, and the situation in Ukraine and its impact on global gas and other supplies... In any case, the British GDP is 2.6 trillion pounds. 33 billion pounds is a statistical error. To put it in perspective, 12 billion pounds were the cost of the useless one-month fest of the London Olympics... Even the "British Economy 5% smaller than it would have been without Brexit" they get to (which is much worse than a 33 billion pounds loss), is akin to charlatanism to claim, what with the unknowns of covid and current ukraine situation thrown in...

lern_too_spel 4y ago
> 33 billion pounds is a statistical error. 5.5% > the unknowns of covid and current ukraine situation thrown in... From the article: "The CER modelled the performance of a “doppelganger” UK – if the nation had remained inside the EU – using data from other advanced economies similar to Britain prior to Brexit, including US, Germany, Norway and Australia." Comparing against similar countries is not much affected by situations that affect those other countries.
- coldtea 4y ago
  >From the article: "The CER modelled the performance of a “doppelganger” UK – if the nation had remained inside the EU – using data from other advanced economies similar to Britain prior to Brexit, including US, Germany, Norway and Australia." Which borders on the comical. The US e.g. being the top dog bossing other countries around to buy their own gas and profiteering from the war, Norway being an energy producer (and the top 3rd largest gas exporter in the world), Australia being a totally unrelated economy in a whole other region with whole other factors, and Germany controlling European policy (with or without the UK in it). The "study" is trully an art of interpreting data to taste!
benj111 4y ago
If someone said that covid cost the economy X would you claim that was charlatanism based on other unknowns, or would you accept that there is some broadly calculable cost of covid? If so then you can work out the cost of Brexit by subtracting that figure. I don't deny it makes things more difficult, but unless you want to give up entirely on attributing costs to such things, you have to accept that the cost of Brexit is also calculable.
- coldtea 4y ago
  >If so then you can work out the cost of Brexit by subtracting that figure. If only it was just easy, and outcomes from multiple factors could just be isolated and "substracted from the figure". Even the sole "cost of covid" alone, with just the regular uncertainty of measurement would be disputable (whatever it was) - doubly so when it coincides with two huge other affecting factors... Heck, even good old GDP measurements border on charlatanism - and that's under fair weather..

john_throaway 4y ago

It is just a coincidence