3 ms·

> that it’s further away than anyone thought. No no, only musk was stupid enough to imply level 5 autonomy within x years. Everyone know how hard it is, realt

> that it’s further away than anyone thought. No no, only musk was stupid enough to imply level 5 autonomy within x years. Everyone know how hard it is, realtime accurate position, machine perception of roads, & accurate prediction of cars/lorries/other are all very difficult problems. Then to hobble your team by saying "blah blah blah no lidars" because they are expensive and someone from the ML team convinced you that they could estimate depth reliably, was the clincher. Level 4/5 self driving is more of a matter of scale. if you have a 99.5% safe rating, then a lot of people over a country the size of the states are going to have a bad day.

v0idzer0 4y ago
Let’s not pretend Apple, Uber, Google and countless others weren’t spending billions trying to make this a reality. They didn’t burn that money because they were smart enough to know it wasn’t going to happen. Everyone thought it was imminent. Many still do.
- JumpinJack_Cash 4y ago
  Billions of dollars for Apple and Google are within the realm of no-nonsense moonshots given that their core business is very solid. Tesla had to use all their weapons including fraud, exagerations and lies because their core business is the worst business in the world: manufacturing automobiles. So they have essentially nothing to fall back on if FSD fails.
  - nullc 4y ago
    I'm still mystified that tesla isn't mired in lawsuits over this: Some tesla dealers were telling customers that within a few years their self driving tesla would earn back its purchase price from acting as a robotaxi.
    - foobiekr 4y ago
      The dealers were? https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5cFTlx68itk https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5cFTlx68itk
- deleted 4y ago
  [deleted]
- ghaff 4y ago
  It's very unclear to me who really thought what. I'm sure there really were true believers who got sucked in by the rapid advances in ML and figured "How hard can the last 20% be really?" You had companies that figured they'd better their bases because they could afford to and FOMO. You almost certainly had some number of cynical grifters pitching a story for their investors that they knew was nonsense. And you had a lot of people who saw all of the above and figured that it must be all true.
- cactusplant7374 4y ago
  It was insurance against being left out of a revolution until they understood the problem better.
todd3834 4y ago
Somewhere unrealistic ambition has been mistaken for stupidity. If everyone was “realistic” our progress would move so much slower. Breakthroughs happen because of people like Elon. Assuming stupidity is a bit over the top.
- KaiserPro 4y ago
  FSD == ambition Promising that it be ready by 2018(or whenever it is) == unrealistic ambition Chucking it out the door, branding it as FSD, charging for it, and not actually putting in the right sensor suite to make it work == stupid, or, perhaps dishonest.

v0idzer0 4y ago

Let’s not pretend Apple, Uber, Google and countless others weren’t spending billions trying to make this a reality. They didn’t burn that money because they were smart enough to know it wasn’t going to happen. Everyone thought it was imminent. Many still do.

JumpinJack_Cash 4y ago
Billions of dollars for Apple and Google are within the realm of no-nonsense moonshots given that their core business is very solid. Tesla had to use all their weapons including fraud, exagerations and lies because their core business is the worst business in the world: manufacturing automobiles. So they have essentially nothing to fall back on if FSD fails.
- nullc 4y ago
  I'm still mystified that tesla isn't mired in lawsuits over this: Some tesla dealers were telling customers that within a few years their self driving tesla would earn back its purchase price from acting as a robotaxi.
  - foobiekr 4y ago
    The dealers were? https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5cFTlx68itk https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5cFTlx68itk
deleted 4y ago
[deleted]
ghaff 4y ago
It's very unclear to me who really thought what. I'm sure there really were true believers who got sucked in by the rapid advances in ML and figured "How hard can the last 20% be really?" You had companies that figured they'd better their bases because they could afford to and FOMO. You almost certainly had some number of cynical grifters pitching a story for their investors that they knew was nonsense. And you had a lot of people who saw all of the above and figured that it must be all true.
cactusplant7374 4y ago
It was insurance against being left out of a revolution until they understood the problem better.

todd3834 4y ago

Somewhere unrealistic ambition has been mistaken for stupidity. If everyone was “realistic” our progress would move so much slower. Breakthroughs happen because of people like Elon. Assuming stupidity is a bit over the top.

KaiserPro 4y ago
FSD == ambition Promising that it be ready by 2018(or whenever it is) == unrealistic ambition Chucking it out the door, branding it as FSD, charging for it, and not actually putting in the right sensor suite to make it work == stupid, or, perhaps dishonest.