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Conditional probability doesn’t work like that. If you always have a bomb with you, then the probability of you sitting on a plane with a bomb is 1, and thus t

Conditional probability doesn’t work like that. If you always have a bomb with you, then the probability of you sitting on a plane with a bomb is 1, and thus the probability of you sitting on a plane with another bomb is again 10^-4.

542458 4y ago
Yes, the post you’re replying to was recounting a joke :)
- gattr 4y ago
  Indeed. Hmm, but what if I roll a D20 before each flight and take a bomb only if I get a "1"? Do I decrease the average two-bombs probability to 5·10⁻⁶?
  - meindnoch 4y ago
    Yes. But the conditional probability of the plane having a bomb that’s not yours will still be 10^-4.
deleted 4y ago
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