4 ms·

Sigh... Theft is not 'skyrocketing everywhere.' it's been steadily decreasing for years. https://www.statista.com/statistics/191247/reported-larceny-theft-rate

Sigh... Theft is not 'skyrocketing everywhere.' it's been steadily decreasing for years. https://www.statista.com/statistics/191247/reported-larceny-theft-rate-in-the-us-since-1990/#statisticContainer https://www.statista.com/statistics/191247/reported-larceny-... Polls before the last election said everyone thought crime was going up... Somewhere else.

HyperSane 4y ago
Organized retail theft does seem to be increasing.
ericd 4y ago
I’ve worked with crime reporting data before, the quality is… not high.
hackrnusr 4y ago
https://www.wsj.com/articles/shoplifting-stores-problem-11671737792 https://www.wsj.com/articles/shoplifting-stores-problem-1167...
lazide 4y ago
In retail stores, I’ve seen it with my own eyes all across the Bay Area. It’s gone from occasional, ‘tries to hide it’ shoplifting to brazen ‘runs off with a shopping cart full of tools/baby food/electronics in the daylight daily’ in a handful of years. Stores are changing their display practices to try to compensate (locking up anything over a certain dollar threshold), but it’s easy to bypass. Last week when talking to one guy (Home Depot in Santa Clara) while buying a power tool, he said they’d had over $14k taken in the last few weeks alone from that store. I’ve seen folks do the runs myself while picking up Electronics too. The staff just sighs, takes a note, and continues on with their day. Notably, it seems like it’s co-ordinated. when talking to the staff, they say it’s a different person each time, but very frequent now. shrug
- wpietri 4y ago
  As long as we're using dueling anecdotes, I've lived in SF 20+ years, and as far as I can tell crime levels are about the same. Is it possible that criminal groups are doing some organized shoplifting? I'd believe it. But this may be just a change in method for existing criminals. Or it may be that we're hearing about it more because it's a topic that has gained sudden media interest. In any case, that cuts against your theory that the cops don't care, because doing it in bulk or in an organized fashion will turn it from a misdemeanor to a felony, making cops much more interested. And indeed, SF just announced results from exactly that kind of operation: https://sfist.com/2022/12/16/sfpd-touts-60-arrests-in-new-retail-shoplifting-crackdown/ https://sfist.com/2022/12/16/sfpd-touts-60-arrests-in-new-re...
  - lazide 4y ago
    If they can’t/won’t arrest low level offenders, it makes it easier to construct a ring. Just like the link you posted. If it’s too easy to prosecute low level folks, the friction is too high. Glad they’re going after the rings at least!
    - wpietri 4y ago
      A lack of cash bail doesn't make it any harder to arrest or charge low-level offenders, so I think that's a bit of a red herring here.
      - lazide 4y ago
        It makes it harder to keep them off the street, which makes departments deprioritize arresting people for those crimes. Same as 5150 for mentally unstable folks on the street. When it’s clearly a revolving door, folks stop trying to spend so much effort pushing people into it. It’s often part of the same platform too - at least for Chesa Boudin. [https://sfstandard.com/politics/the-recall-of-chesa-boudin-how-the-pandemic-fed-a-national-attack-on-progressive-prosectors/ https://sfstandard.com/politics/the-recall-of-chesa-boudin-h...]
        4y ago
- sdenton4 4y ago
  The retail stores are less able to handle shrink than they could before because they have serious competition from online sales. They have tighter margins due to competition, so they lock stuff down more, leading to a much worse shipping experience, leading to more people shopping online. It's a death spiral. There's certainly more reporting of shoplifting in SF in the last couple years, but it's only a part of the story, and evidently not a general trend, or we would see it in higher level statistics.

HyperSane 4y ago

Organized retail theft does seem to be increasing.

ericd 4y ago

I’ve worked with crime reporting data before, the quality is… not high.

hackrnusr 4y ago

https://www.wsj.com/articles/shoplifting-stores-problem-11671737792 https://www.wsj.com/articles/shoplifting-stores-problem-1167...

lazide 4y ago

In retail stores, I’ve seen it with my own eyes all across the Bay Area. It’s gone from occasional, ‘tries to hide it’ shoplifting to brazen ‘runs off with a shopping cart full of tools/baby food/electronics in the daylight daily’ in a handful of years. Stores are changing their display practices to try to compensate (locking up anything over a certain dollar threshold), but it’s easy to bypass. Last week when talking to one guy (Home Depot in Santa Clara) while buying a power tool, he said they’d had over $14k taken in the last few weeks alone from that store. I’ve seen folks do the runs myself while picking up Electronics too. The staff just sighs, takes a note, and continues on with their day. Notably, it seems like it’s co-ordinated. when talking to the staff, they say it’s a different person each time, but very frequent now. shrug

wpietri 4y ago
As long as we're using dueling anecdotes, I've lived in SF 20+ years, and as far as I can tell crime levels are about the same. Is it possible that criminal groups are doing some organized shoplifting? I'd believe it. But this may be just a change in method for existing criminals. Or it may be that we're hearing about it more because it's a topic that has gained sudden media interest. In any case, that cuts against your theory that the cops don't care, because doing it in bulk or in an organized fashion will turn it from a misdemeanor to a felony, making cops much more interested. And indeed, SF just announced results from exactly that kind of operation: https://sfist.com/2022/12/16/sfpd-touts-60-arrests-in-new-retail-shoplifting-crackdown/ https://sfist.com/2022/12/16/sfpd-touts-60-arrests-in-new-re...
- lazide 4y ago
  If they can’t/won’t arrest low level offenders, it makes it easier to construct a ring. Just like the link you posted. If it’s too easy to prosecute low level folks, the friction is too high. Glad they’re going after the rings at least!
  - wpietri 4y ago
    A lack of cash bail doesn't make it any harder to arrest or charge low-level offenders, so I think that's a bit of a red herring here.
    - lazide 4y ago
      It makes it harder to keep them off the street, which makes departments deprioritize arresting people for those crimes. Same as 5150 for mentally unstable folks on the street. When it’s clearly a revolving door, folks stop trying to spend so much effort pushing people into it. It’s often part of the same platform too - at least for Chesa Boudin. [https://sfstandard.com/politics/the-recall-of-chesa-boudin-how-the-pandemic-fed-a-national-attack-on-progressive-prosectors/ https://sfstandard.com/politics/the-recall-of-chesa-boudin-h...]
      - 4y ago
sdenton4 4y ago
The retail stores are less able to handle shrink than they could before because they have serious competition from online sales. They have tighter margins due to competition, so they lock stuff down more, leading to a much worse shipping experience, leading to more people shopping online. It's a death spiral. There's certainly more reporting of shoplifting in SF in the last couple years, but it's only a part of the story, and evidently not a general trend, or we would see it in higher level statistics.