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Movie theater plots like putting a CEO Nissan into a shipping container so he can flee prosecution in Japan? https://www.bbc.com/news/business-57760993 https://

Movie theater plots like putting a CEO Nissan into a shipping container so he can flee prosecution in Japan? https://www.bbc.com/news/business-57760993 https://www.bbc.com/news/business-57760993 When you've got personal wealth in the hundreds of millions, yeah, "hollywood plots" are indeed a concern.

s1artibartfast 4y ago
Yeah they are a concern, but the justice system shouldn't look at anecdotes. It should look at overall statistics.
- lazide 4y ago
  How many billionaires get arrested every year again for massive billion dollar frauds? When your sample size holds no statistical significant, there are no useful overall statistics.
  - s1artibartfast 4y ago
    I obviously don't have the numbers, but I would think a few billionaires a year, and lots of multimillioners. Add that up over 50 years and you probably have a pretty decent sample size
    - lazide 4y ago
      In any specific jurisdiction? Highly unlikely. There are only 3.3k billionaires globally. For those specific crimes? Even less likely. My guess (but numbers hard to come by, to my point), is there have only been a handful of billionaires arrested for anything, even in most states. Ever. There are several orders of magnitude difference between billionaires and multi millionaires. They aren’t even on the same page.
      - s1artibartfast 4y ago
        Off the top of my head Elizabeth Holmes comes to mind and Sunny Balwani must have been close. Epstein was also pretty close. When I Google Billionaire arrested I get a flood of responses with names. I would argue that at least individuals with 100 plus million have the similar capacity for flight AS billionaires. You could probably come up with an extensive list of US celebrities that have been arrested in this category
        lazide 4y ago
        Out of 3.3k All in different jurisdictions, with wildly different circumstances, and little overlap in types of crimes and ability to flee, no? Those are individual points, not statistically significant data. Which is my point.
        s1artibartfast 4y ago
        To take a step back, what do you think SBFs chance of skipping bail is? If you were to wager, what percentage would you put it at? I'm willing to concede that we don't have a ton of apples to apples comparators. I do think there is a lot of general data, but as you point out, there are a lot of caviats.
        lazide 4y ago
        Chance if he wanted to? Or chance of wanting to? I frankly couldn’t even guess. What was Ghosn’s of escaping house arrest?
jcampbell1 4y ago
Mr. Ghosn would be in Japan right now if there were a $250 million bounty on his head.
twblalock 4y ago
> When you've got personal wealth in the hundreds of millions, yeah, "hollywood plots" are indeed a concern. SBF doesn't have that, though. He lost access to FTX's funds. He doesn't have anything he can give to anyone that would motivate them to do that for him. No money, no influence, no ability to reward anyone in any way. He is poison and nobody wants anything to do with him.
- SilasX 4y ago
  You say this after his allies put themselves on the hook for $250 million just so he could be out of prison pending trial.
  - twblalock 4y ago
    They don’t have the money either. What they did is more like cosigning a kid’s car loan. Nobody actually bought a bail bond.
    - SilasX 4y ago
      I was speaking to the issue (that you raised) of whether SBF has allies motivated to help him. On that issue, I responded that there were people still willing to have their entire net worths wiped out to help him. Whether they actually have some arbitrarily higher figure is not relevant to that point.

s1artibartfast 4y ago

Yeah they are a concern, but the justice system shouldn't look at anecdotes. It should look at overall statistics.

lazide 4y ago
How many billionaires get arrested every year again for massive billion dollar frauds? When your sample size holds no statistical significant, there are no useful overall statistics.
- s1artibartfast 4y ago
  I obviously don't have the numbers, but I would think a few billionaires a year, and lots of multimillioners. Add that up over 50 years and you probably have a pretty decent sample size
  - lazide 4y ago
    In any specific jurisdiction? Highly unlikely. There are only 3.3k billionaires globally. For those specific crimes? Even less likely. My guess (but numbers hard to come by, to my point), is there have only been a handful of billionaires arrested for anything, even in most states. Ever. There are several orders of magnitude difference between billionaires and multi millionaires. They aren’t even on the same page.
    - s1artibartfast 4y ago
      Off the top of my head Elizabeth Holmes comes to mind and Sunny Balwani must have been close. Epstein was also pretty close. When I Google Billionaire arrested I get a flood of responses with names. I would argue that at least individuals with 100 plus million have the similar capacity for flight AS billionaires. You could probably come up with an extensive list of US celebrities that have been arrested in this category
      - lazide 4y ago
        Out of 3.3k All in different jurisdictions, with wildly different circumstances, and little overlap in types of crimes and ability to flee, no? Those are individual points, not statistically significant data. Which is my point.
        s1artibartfast 4y ago
        To take a step back, what do you think SBFs chance of skipping bail is? If you were to wager, what percentage would you put it at? I'm willing to concede that we don't have a ton of apples to apples comparators. I do think there is a lot of general data, but as you point out, there are a lot of caviats.
        lazide 4y ago
        Chance if he wanted to? Or chance of wanting to? I frankly couldn’t even guess. What was Ghosn’s of escaping house arrest?

jcampbell1 4y ago

Mr. Ghosn would be in Japan right now if there were a $250 million bounty on his head.

twblalock 4y ago

> When you've got personal wealth in the hundreds of millions, yeah, "hollywood plots" are indeed a concern. SBF doesn't have that, though. He lost access to FTX's funds. He doesn't have anything he can give to anyone that would motivate them to do that for him. No money, no influence, no ability to reward anyone in any way. He is poison and nobody wants anything to do with him.

SilasX 4y ago
You say this after his allies put themselves on the hook for $250 million just so he could be out of prison pending trial.
- twblalock 4y ago
  They don’t have the money either. What they did is more like cosigning a kid’s car loan. Nobody actually bought a bail bond.
  - SilasX 4y ago
    I was speaking to the issue (that you raised) of whether SBF has allies motivated to help him. On that issue, I responded that there were people still willing to have their entire net worths wiped out to help him. Whether they actually have some arbitrarily higher figure is not relevant to that point.