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The issue for Google here is not that someone will become the next google. Its that the search model is being commoditized with the help of AI. Now all the wa

The issue for Google here is not that someone will become the next google. Its that the search model is being commoditized with the help of AI. Now all the walled gardens that Google cant access (Facebook, Reddit, Instagram, TikTok, etc) can build very good search models and include regular search to ensure users never leave their walled gardens. Once people get used to that model of internet usage, Google is done for. How long will it take Apple to pool together a bunch of these AI models and create a search engine that takes the best of these and present it to users? How long will it take for Microsoft or Reddit or Insta? The recent news that the Sundar Pichai's pay has be modified to increase the percentage based on performance seems to be linked to this news too.

JustLurking2022 4y ago
Well, the PageRank paper laid out the fundamentals of Google's algorithm in 1999 and products like Solr or ElasticSearch have offered pretty solid full text indexing/search for over a decade. Microsoft has been working on Bing since at least 2009, so I would say it could still take competitors quite a while to put together a compelling offering.
- kumarvvr 4y ago
  Page rank and Bing approach is to emulate Google. That mean building infra and indexing capabilities, for which Google has a very long head start. Not to mention, the cash and resources to keep moving and accelerating. ChatGPT (and the next one and the next one) are different. They are pre-trained models. They are easy to train to specific sets of data. I would envisage a future where a lot of walled gardens implement chatGPT for internal search algorithms. And, a federated network of these walled gardens could aggregate search by sharing results from models. This would leads to a search layer that is distributed and compartmentalized, and this is a real threat to Google.
  - JustLurking2022 4y ago
    Unlikely. Walled gardens already use their own search so what does Google care if they change the technology behind it. They've also made the conscious decision to be walled gardens so I don't see a federation play. Also, distributed search = incredibly slow search. Having to reach out to dozens or hundreds of backends for each query creates all kinds of problems (latency, reliability). So that leaves us back at each walled garden needing to index web content in order to offer it alongside their own results. Large scale indexing is something Google definitely has a significant lead in, which would take many years to overcome.

JustLurking2022 4y ago

Well, the PageRank paper laid out the fundamentals of Google's algorithm in 1999 and products like Solr or ElasticSearch have offered pretty solid full text indexing/search for over a decade. Microsoft has been working on Bing since at least 2009, so I would say it could still take competitors quite a while to put together a compelling offering.

kumarvvr 4y ago
Page rank and Bing approach is to emulate Google. That mean building infra and indexing capabilities, for which Google has a very long head start. Not to mention, the cash and resources to keep moving and accelerating. ChatGPT (and the next one and the next one) are different. They are pre-trained models. They are easy to train to specific sets of data. I would envisage a future where a lot of walled gardens implement chatGPT for internal search algorithms. And, a federated network of these walled gardens could aggregate search by sharing results from models. This would leads to a search layer that is distributed and compartmentalized, and this is a real threat to Google.
- JustLurking2022 4y ago
  Unlikely. Walled gardens already use their own search so what does Google care if they change the technology behind it. They've also made the conscious decision to be walled gardens so I don't see a federation play. Also, distributed search = incredibly slow search. Having to reach out to dozens or hundreds of backends for each query creates all kinds of problems (latency, reliability). So that leaves us back at each walled garden needing to index web content in order to offer it alongside their own results. Large scale indexing is something Google definitely has a significant lead in, which would take many years to overcome.