3 ms·

In for a Pound: Russia is in it to win it, and will settle for nothing less

4 points by yeknoda 4y ago

ggm 4y ago
A polemic based on the premise this is a NATO vs Russia war by proxy, that it will settle between the US and Russia irrespective of others wishes, and that there is a misapprehension about relative strengths and weaknesses in the NATO and Russian defence capability. It may well be a war by proxy, but it has other qualities: if true, only one side is fighting by proxy. This bears thinking about when declaring evidence of capability and weaknesses being discovered: exactly how does this uncover core weakness on NATO's part? I would have thought it can explore the strength of the supply chain dynamics, and limited knowledge of the capability of near region radar assisted technology but reveals nothing of strategic force capability, of long range radar assisted technology or of even battlefield tactics, beyond those shared. Exactly how there is a belief that partitioning will or won't work is unclear. It's acceptance is moot, but so is evidence beyond Macron's silly comments. I see no serious discussion which even hints at ceasefire which proceeds partition. Macron has even shut up recently. On one matter I think it can be read usefully: it shows the kind of twisted interior logic Kremlin supporters state as their believed objective truths. And, on Putins asserted rigidity, I think this will best be judged in arrears: Many "never one step back" positions mask preparation for the inevitable. The war is a tragedy. It won't end tidily by partition or clear victory. It will end badly if it ends soon, with no clear consensus about root causes. This writing does nothing to clarify them, but does show the extent to which some people wish to believe their own theory. Conversion of the Russian economy to total war would be visible economically. Any signs? The rate of attrition of manpower and material is unsustainable for an isolated Russian force. Where is the equivalent of lend lease? With the winter peak for gas coming, where is the Russian lever over European NATO forces once they move beyond a dependency on Russian gas? This war could last for years.
- golem14 4y ago
  Every year this war lasts will diminish the dependency of the West on Russian gas/oil, so there's that.
  - ggm 4y ago
    "Russia is on the brink of a decisive victory" is a truly remarkable assertion. I wonder of he will edit that out in some future time, and how long is "on the brink" militarily speaking? Ending the dependency is huge, especially if it's wind and solar and battery backed: it's a technology paradigm shift. What will Russia trade with the West once gas feed stops? Maybe direct products: plastics, pharma and fertiliser. That's decades off. Something for a new polity to explore, when it happens. Gerontocracy aside, structural change to a desire for peaceful bilateral engagement will be necessary.
allears 4y ago
Russia (Putin) is pushing for short-term victories while digging its own grave.
jonnycomputer 4y ago
>Russia is on the brink of a decisive victory What a joke. Russia might still win, but it's nowhere near on the brink of a decisive victory.
lordkrandel 4y ago
If I continue to see "legitimate security issues" to refer to the sole attacker in a war, I'll flag every single word about it.

4 points by yeknoda 4y ago

ggm 4y ago

A polemic based on the premise this is a NATO vs Russia war by proxy, that it will settle between the US and Russia irrespective of others wishes, and that there is a misapprehension about relative strengths and weaknesses in the NATO and Russian defence capability. It may well be a war by proxy, but it has other qualities: if true, only one side is fighting by proxy. This bears thinking about when declaring evidence of capability and weaknesses being discovered: exactly how does this uncover core weakness on NATO's part? I would have thought it can explore the strength of the supply chain dynamics, and limited knowledge of the capability of near region radar assisted technology but reveals nothing of strategic force capability, of long range radar assisted technology or of even battlefield tactics, beyond those shared. Exactly how there is a belief that partitioning will or won't work is unclear. It's acceptance is moot, but so is evidence beyond Macron's silly comments. I see no serious discussion which even hints at ceasefire which proceeds partition. Macron has even shut up recently. On one matter I think it can be read usefully: it shows the kind of twisted interior logic Kremlin supporters state as their believed objective truths. And, on Putins asserted rigidity, I think this will best be judged in arrears: Many "never one step back" positions mask preparation for the inevitable. The war is a tragedy. It won't end tidily by partition or clear victory. It will end badly if it ends soon, with no clear consensus about root causes. This writing does nothing to clarify them, but does show the extent to which some people wish to believe their own theory. Conversion of the Russian economy to total war would be visible economically. Any signs? The rate of attrition of manpower and material is unsustainable for an isolated Russian force. Where is the equivalent of lend lease? With the winter peak for gas coming, where is the Russian lever over European NATO forces once they move beyond a dependency on Russian gas? This war could last for years.

golem14 4y ago
Every year this war lasts will diminish the dependency of the West on Russian gas/oil, so there's that.
- ggm 4y ago
  "Russia is on the brink of a decisive victory" is a truly remarkable assertion. I wonder of he will edit that out in some future time, and how long is "on the brink" militarily speaking? Ending the dependency is huge, especially if it's wind and solar and battery backed: it's a technology paradigm shift. What will Russia trade with the West once gas feed stops? Maybe direct products: plastics, pharma and fertiliser. That's decades off. Something for a new polity to explore, when it happens. Gerontocracy aside, structural change to a desire for peaceful bilateral engagement will be necessary.

allears 4y ago

Russia (Putin) is pushing for short-term victories while digging its own grave.

jonnycomputer 4y ago

>Russia is on the brink of a decisive victory What a joke. Russia might still win, but it's nowhere near on the brink of a decisive victory.

lordkrandel 4y ago

If I continue to see "legitimate security issues" to refer to the sole attacker in a war, I'll flag every single word about it.