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> For companies that have become extraordinarily successful doing one market-defining thing, it is hard to have a second act with something entirely different.

by mkl95 4y ago

> For companies that have become extraordinarily successful doing one market-defining thing, it is hard to have a second act with something entirely different. Google are extraordinarily successful at selling ads. Their search engine is mostly a frontend for their add business. I don't see a way for ChatGPT to disrupt that market any time soon.

anentropic 4y ago
You can't imagine a version of ChatGPT with ads?
- mkl95 4y ago
  I can't imagine a ChatGPT based ad product that can compete with Google at the moment. Google search lives in billions of heads rent free. Success will happen niche by niche rather than "beating Google search".
  - anentropic 4y ago
    Yeah to be fair I don't see any problem for Google to produce something ChatGPT-like and integrate it with their search with speech <-> text interface it would also pair well with their "Ok Google" assistants So I agree I don't think ChatGPT itself will disrupt Google Search, except in the sense of pushing Google to roll out something similar And I also agree that Google own the entry points - the search bar etc - that would make it harder for a competing product to establish itself
hackerlight 4y ago
I don't see how the monetizability of ChatGPT is relevant to whether they can destroy Google's search business. If ChatGPT builds a product that people choose to use instead of Google, then Google's business is done. Whether ChatGPT makes money or not is irrelevnt.
- mkl95 4y ago
  > If ChatGPT builds a product that people choose to use instead of Google, then Google's business is done Every new search engine out there is having a hard time building a significant userbase, because Google Search is very close to a monopoly. You need some mindboggling investment just so those people know you exist. And in the best case scenario a fraction of those people will try your product, and a fraction of that fraction will adopt it. Whether ChatGPT is better than Google's search business is irrelevant if people don't care.

by mkl95 4y ago

anentropic 4y ago

You can't imagine a version of ChatGPT with ads?

mkl95 4y ago
I can't imagine a ChatGPT based ad product that can compete with Google at the moment. Google search lives in billions of heads rent free. Success will happen niche by niche rather than "beating Google search".
- anentropic 4y ago
  Yeah to be fair I don't see any problem for Google to produce something ChatGPT-like and integrate it with their search with speech <-> text interface it would also pair well with their "Ok Google" assistants So I agree I don't think ChatGPT itself will disrupt Google Search, except in the sense of pushing Google to roll out something similar And I also agree that Google own the entry points - the search bar etc - that would make it harder for a competing product to establish itself

hackerlight 4y ago

I don't see how the monetizability of ChatGPT is relevant to whether they can destroy Google's search business. If ChatGPT builds a product that people choose to use instead of Google, then Google's business is done. Whether ChatGPT makes money or not is irrelevnt.

mkl95 4y ago
> If ChatGPT builds a product that people choose to use instead of Google, then Google's business is done Every new search engine out there is having a hard time building a significant userbase, because Google Search is very close to a monopoly. You need some mindboggling investment just so those people know you exist. And in the best case scenario a fraction of those people will try your product, and a fraction of that fraction will adopt it. Whether ChatGPT is better than Google's search business is irrelevant if people don't care.