As Tyler Cowen points out in "The Great Stagnation", maybe these first 20 doublings or so were the low hanging fruit. Kurzweil keeps saying that people underes

As Tyler Cowen points out in "The Great Stagnation", maybe these first 20 doublings or so were the low hanging fruit. Kurzweil keeps saying that people underestimate exponential processes (its also the topic of "The most important video on math" [1]), but I think it cuts both ways. It is by no means clear that the next 20 doublings will proceed at the same rate as the last 20. People might just say, "Siri via the cloud is good enough for me, I don't need Siri running directly on my phone". [1] http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=F-QA2rkpBSY http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=F-QA2rkpBSY