4 ms·

1 death, but also 110,000 permanently evacuated and their homes lost as if burned to the ground, and many billions already spent, with more to come, on a multi-

1 death, but also 110,000 permanently evacuated and their homes lost as if burned to the ground, and many billions already spent, with more to come, on a multi-generational clean-up project. I'm generally pro-nuclear but let's not understate the impact of Fukushima.

Herz 4y ago
You are right, but these are political reasons that have to do with the fear of nuclear power in people, not an inherent problem with nuclear power. The Fukushima plant was one of the oldest plants in the world, and not up to modern standards. If this is what can happen in the worst case scenario.... Then it's our problem that we can't accept it. https://rchoetzlein.com/theory/wp-content/uploads/2011/03/radiation.jpg https://rchoetzlein.com/theory/wp-content/uploads/2011/03/ra...
concordDance 4y ago
Thing is, they don't actually need to still be evacuated. Check out the radiation map of Japan: https://jciv.iidj.net/map/ https://jciv.iidj.net/map/ Look up where the evacuation zone is and the pre evacuation population numbers. Then plug those numbers into the linear no threshold model (which is thought to overestimate risk). I'm away from my computer for the holidays, but when I did the numbers you're looking at QALY losses an order of magnitude lower than that caused by the loss of home. In general people (govs included) drastically overreact to radiation deaths. It makes no sense to spend a billion dollars to avoid one nuclear accident death when you can spend a billion dollars to avoid 100 prostate cancer deaths. Its literally not worth doing the remaining cleanup by any metric.
- mplanchard 4y ago
  According to farmers who live in the area and do their own scans, the government's radiation maps are not always correct: https://aeon.co/essays/life-in-fukushima-is-a-glimpse-into-our-contaminated-future?utm_source=rss-feed https://aeon.co/essays/life-in-fukushima-is-a-glimpse-into-o...
Manuel_D 4y ago
The cleanup is actually done, I am routinely impressed that people think it's going to be cordoned off for generations: https://english.kyodonews.net/news/2022/06/cdd1d2ce1e47-evacuation-order-lifted-in-fukushima-nuclear-plant-town-after-11-yrs.html https://english.kyodonews.net/news/2022/06/cdd1d2ce1e47-evac...
- mplanchard 4y ago
  See my comment here: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=34101272 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=34101272 It seems like while the official cleanup is done, actually repopulating fukushima and living there is a different matter.
  - Manuel_D 4y ago
    The piece has a lot of anecdotes and personal stories and very little in the way of actual quantitative claims about contamination. Mushrooms allegedly tasting weird isn't exactly someone one would base industrial policy on.

Herz 4y ago

You are right, but these are political reasons that have to do with the fear of nuclear power in people, not an inherent problem with nuclear power. The Fukushima plant was one of the oldest plants in the world, and not up to modern standards. If this is what can happen in the worst case scenario.... Then it's our problem that we can't accept it. https://rchoetzlein.com/theory/wp-content/uploads/2011/03/radiation.jpg https://rchoetzlein.com/theory/wp-content/uploads/2011/03/ra...

concordDance 4y ago

Thing is, they don't actually need to still be evacuated. Check out the radiation map of Japan: https://jciv.iidj.net/map/ https://jciv.iidj.net/map/ Look up where the evacuation zone is and the pre evacuation population numbers. Then plug those numbers into the linear no threshold model (which is thought to overestimate risk). I'm away from my computer for the holidays, but when I did the numbers you're looking at QALY losses an order of magnitude lower than that caused by the loss of home. In general people (govs included) drastically overreact to radiation deaths. It makes no sense to spend a billion dollars to avoid one nuclear accident death when you can spend a billion dollars to avoid 100 prostate cancer deaths. Its literally not worth doing the remaining cleanup by any metric.

mplanchard 4y ago
According to farmers who live in the area and do their own scans, the government's radiation maps are not always correct: https://aeon.co/essays/life-in-fukushima-is-a-glimpse-into-our-contaminated-future?utm_source=rss-feed https://aeon.co/essays/life-in-fukushima-is-a-glimpse-into-o...

Manuel_D 4y ago

The cleanup is actually done, I am routinely impressed that people think it's going to be cordoned off for generations: https://english.kyodonews.net/news/2022/06/cdd1d2ce1e47-evacuation-order-lifted-in-fukushima-nuclear-plant-town-after-11-yrs.html https://english.kyodonews.net/news/2022/06/cdd1d2ce1e47-evac...

mplanchard 4y ago
See my comment here: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=34101272 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=34101272 It seems like while the official cleanup is done, actually repopulating fukushima and living there is a different matter.
- Manuel_D 4y ago
  The piece has a lot of anecdotes and personal stories and very little in the way of actual quantitative claims about contamination. Mushrooms allegedly tasting weird isn't exactly someone one would base industrial policy on.