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I think you make valid points. I'm curious about "peace in Ukraine", given Zalinskyy's speech before US Congress just last night. I'm not an expert but it seems

I think you make valid points. I'm curious about "peace in Ukraine", given Zalinskyy's speech before US Congress just last night. I'm not an expert but it seems to me there's still a shooting war in progress in Ukraine. What am I missing?

londons_explore 4y ago
uncertain peace... I think it's clear this will be a simmering low-intensity war for many years to come.
- twelve40 4y ago
  I thought so too until recently, but they are raising the stakes with Patriot missiles and "need to win" rhetoric, so there is a certain chance it will keep escalating.
  - jeromegv 4y ago
    The "need to win" rhetoric... its an odd way of looking at it. Ukraine territory is invaded. What do you expect them to do.. just surrender? Of course they need to win. It's their home, their land, there is no reason whatsoever why it should become Russian territory.
    - twelve40 4y ago
      no, i don't expect them to surrender or any of what you mentioned. The US is continuously escalating by now supplying Patriot missiles - just the most recent in a sequence of more and more destructive weapons - and drumming up the "need to win" rhetoric. So, back to the point, it might not just be a "long-simmering", this one.
      - sofixa 4y ago
        > The US is continuously escalating by now supplying Patriot missiles - just the most recent in a sequence of more and more destructive weapons An anti-air system is not really a destructive weapon, it's for self-defence. And saying the US is escalating is really weird considering Russia is the one invading and escalating with brutal attacks on civilians and civilian infrastructure.
        londons_explore 4y ago
        The whole US war machine is called the "Department of Defence". And they have defended halfway around the world in Iraq, Afghanistan, Syria, etc. But obviously that isn't destruction, it's just defence. /s
        sofixa 4y ago
        Are you claiming that Ukraine aren't defending themselves? Or that an anti-air system, one that shoots down planes or missiles around a limited range (over your own territory), isn't defensive?
- m4rtink 4y ago
  I don't think this is really suistainable long term for Russia, with all the sanctions, international isolation, let alone all the people the front consumes even when relatively static. Not to mention the already disastrous demograhic curve in Russia before this all started.
poszlem 4y ago
Ukraine's goal is to regain control of territory currently occupied by Russia, including Crimea, and potentially see Russia break up into smaller countries. Meanwhile, the United States aims to weaken Russia as a potential threat to NATO countries, but not to the point of its collapse, as they prefer to avoid having Russia become dominated by China. While some NATO countries, particularly those in Eastern Europe and the UK, may support Ukraine in its efforts, others would have been quite content with Russia taking over much of Ukraine and ending the conflict in March 2022. There are powerful forces at play that are attempting to pressure Ukraine into accepting a compromised peace out of fear of a nuclear conflict with Russia. There are concerns that the support provided by the United States may not be sustained in the long term. As a result, Ukraine has considered adopting a more self-reliant approach to defense, similar to that of Israel, which is known for being proactive in its self-defense efforts. Those same ideas are now circulating in much of Eastern Europe, and I suspect in many other middle size countries. The message is clear as day, if you want to be safe, you too have to have nuclear weapons.

londons_explore 4y ago

uncertain peace... I think it's clear this will be a simmering low-intensity war for many years to come.

twelve40 4y ago
I thought so too until recently, but they are raising the stakes with Patriot missiles and "need to win" rhetoric, so there is a certain chance it will keep escalating.
- jeromegv 4y ago
  The "need to win" rhetoric... its an odd way of looking at it. Ukraine territory is invaded. What do you expect them to do.. just surrender? Of course they need to win. It's their home, their land, there is no reason whatsoever why it should become Russian territory.
  - twelve40 4y ago
    no, i don't expect them to surrender or any of what you mentioned. The US is continuously escalating by now supplying Patriot missiles - just the most recent in a sequence of more and more destructive weapons - and drumming up the "need to win" rhetoric. So, back to the point, it might not just be a "long-simmering", this one.
    - sofixa 4y ago
      > The US is continuously escalating by now supplying Patriot missiles - just the most recent in a sequence of more and more destructive weapons An anti-air system is not really a destructive weapon, it's for self-defence. And saying the US is escalating is really weird considering Russia is the one invading and escalating with brutal attacks on civilians and civilian infrastructure.
      - londons_explore 4y ago
        The whole US war machine is called the "Department of Defence". And they have defended halfway around the world in Iraq, Afghanistan, Syria, etc. But obviously that isn't destruction, it's just defence. /s
        sofixa 4y ago
        Are you claiming that Ukraine aren't defending themselves? Or that an anti-air system, one that shoots down planes or missiles around a limited range (over your own territory), isn't defensive?
m4rtink 4y ago
I don't think this is really suistainable long term for Russia, with all the sanctions, international isolation, let alone all the people the front consumes even when relatively static. Not to mention the already disastrous demograhic curve in Russia before this all started.

poszlem 4y ago

Ukraine's goal is to regain control of territory currently occupied by Russia, including Crimea, and potentially see Russia break up into smaller countries. Meanwhile, the United States aims to weaken Russia as a potential threat to NATO countries, but not to the point of its collapse, as they prefer to avoid having Russia become dominated by China. While some NATO countries, particularly those in Eastern Europe and the UK, may support Ukraine in its efforts, others would have been quite content with Russia taking over much of Ukraine and ending the conflict in March 2022. There are powerful forces at play that are attempting to pressure Ukraine into accepting a compromised peace out of fear of a nuclear conflict with Russia. There are concerns that the support provided by the United States may not be sustained in the long term. As a result, Ukraine has considered adopting a more self-reliant approach to defense, similar to that of Israel, which is known for being proactive in its self-defense efforts. Those same ideas are now circulating in much of Eastern Europe, and I suspect in many other middle size countries. The message is clear as day, if you want to be safe, you too have to have nuclear weapons.