4 ms·

If they were able to adequately staff two years ago, and now 25% of a pay raise later they can't, there are likely some structural issues going on.

lotsofpulp 4y ago
The structural issue is that Covid allowed for the activation energy for people to find better jobs. And possibly cut down on supply of people willing to work hotel cleaning jobs for low pay. It is probably among the least desirable work. Volatile hours, busiest times are weekends and holidays, literally cleaning up anything from bodily fluids to garbage and dealing with smells. No one outside of large unionized hotels in big cities is offering a decent salary with predictable schedule. The small franchise hotels have less than 50 employees, so they have no employer subsidized benefits either like access to 401k, public transit credits, or other tax advantaged accounts.
- missedthecue 4y ago
  Why has the workforce participation rate cratered? If people simply changed to a better job, that figure would hold steady. Instead it shows us that millions of Americans decided to stop looking for work.
  - lotsofpulp 4y ago
    I do not think it has cratered in the US. https://www.bls.gov/charts/employment-situation/civilian-labor-force-participation-rate.htm https://www.bls.gov/charts/employment-situation/civilian-lab... Just 1 percent, 63% to 62%, which could just be aging demographics since a greater and greater proportion of people in America are going to be too old to work, especially for hard labor work like cleaning hotel rooms. Also, hotels (and other low pay to quality of life at work ratio employers) were already struggling before COVID. COVID just accelerated the inevitable.
    - missedthecue 4y ago
      Look how much the workforce participation rate has varied over the last 20 years. Only a few percentage points even through massive global recessions. Small percentage changes in this statistic can easily deceive the layman into thinking it's not a big deal.
      - lotsofpulp 4y ago
        I do not understand why a change from 63% to 62% is a sufficiently big deal to be able to claim “millions of Americans decided to stop looking for work”, especially when we know a greater and greater proportion of the population is elderly who cannot work.
        echelon 4y ago
        I would really love to see these statistics broken down by industry, salary band, age, etc.
        shagie 4y ago
        https://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/empsit.pdf https://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/empsit.pdf Table A on page 5 has one breakdown. Table B on page 6 has employment by industry.
        acchow 4y ago
        Working age population is 207M. So 1% actually translates to millions of people (2 million)
        lotsofpulp 4y ago
        I admit that is technically true, but due to their use of the word “cratered”, I was reading the phrase to mean that relatively large amounts of people have decided to no longer work (outside of those who have decided to no longer work due to aging out). Of course, prices are set at the margin, and so if hotels (and other businesses like restaurants and retail) were used to paying the lowest pay to quality of life at work ratio, then I guess it would be accurate to say their problem is a couple million people decided to no longer work, because presumably a greater proportion of those who decided to no longer work would have been from these least desirable to work in businesses.
  - c4ptnjack 4y ago
    It has actually rebounded to 1 percent less than it was prepandemic, and health risks were legitimate reasons for people to not work for a period. Really it shows since 2002 the rate has gone down fairly consistently, show overtime it's worth less and less to work. The main factor in choosing a job is pay in the end and that's also the main variable when choosing to work or not imo. https://www.bls.gov/charts/employment-situation/civilian-labor-force-participation-rate.htm https://www.bls.gov/charts/employment-situation/civilian-lab...
  - shagie 4y ago
    Some portion retired. https://wapo.st/3VgOxf8 https://wapo.st/3VgOxf8 https://www.forbes.com/sites/ashleystahl/2022/03/03/are-boomers-the-answer-to-the-great-resignation/ https://www.forbes.com/sites/ashleystahl/2022/03/03/are-boom... Another portion is no longer able to work those jobs (especially service sector jobs where one is required to show up for a shift or get fired). New data shows long Covid is keeping as many as 4 million people out of work - https://www.brookings.edu/research/new-data-shows-long-covid-is-keeping-as-many-as-4-million-people-out-of-work/ https://www.brookings.edu/research/new-data-shows-long-covid... https://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/empsit.pdf https://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/empsit.pdf > The number of persons not in the labor force who currently want a job was little changed at 5.6 million in November and remains above its February 2020 level of 5.0 million. These individuals were not counted as unemployed because they were not actively looking for work during the 4 weeks preceding the survey or were unavailable to take a job. > Among those not in the labor force who wanted a job, the number of persons marginally attached to the labor force held at 1.5 million in November. These individuals wanted and were available for work and had looked for a job sometime in the prior 12 months but had not looked for work in the 4 weeks preceding the survey. The number of discouraged workers, a subset of the marginally attached who believed that no jobs were available for them, was 405,000 in November, little changed from the previous month. (See Summary table A.)
  - rurp 4y ago
    Yes several million workers died, retired early, or weren't allowed to immigrate to the US.
    - midoridensha 4y ago
      >or weren't allowed to immigrate to the US. Which is exactly as it should be. ~Half the country doesn't want them. If that results in hotel stays being absurdly expensive (or perhaps changing laws so that hotel rooms don't need to be cleaned between guests), then so be it. America is democratic, and the people have spoken, so now let them suffer the consequences.
      - lotsofpulp 4y ago
        > or perhaps changing laws so that hotel rooms don't need to be cleaned between guests I do not think there are any laws requiring this. It probably just has not been price competitive enough to hand a customer the housekeeping cart at check in.
KennyBlanken 4y ago
The primary structural issue is that low-income wages have completely stagnated if not fallen with the inflation over the last several decades while wages for mid-upper to ultrawealthy have gone up, dramatically. The number of places in the US that you can get a 2BR home, rental or owning, on minimum wage is basically non-existent. We're on the verge of large swaths of the US population effectively becoming serfs. Housing is being snapped up by corporations, banks are jacking their fees and making more and more people "unbankable" forcing them into non-bank situations like payroll-company-run quasi-debit-cards where withdrawing their wages costs money. Consider this: Elon Musk at peak of his wealth had more money than all the residents of Massachusetts (itself quite a wealthy state) combined, by a significant margin. We're at a stage where we have what amounts to feudal lords in all but name, complete with their own private security forces going around roughing up people.
- lotsofpulp 4y ago
  >Consider this: Elon Musk at peak of his wealth had more money than all the residents of Massachusetts (itself quite a wealthy state) combined, by a significant margin. There is no way this is anywhere near true. The list below alone is probably $100B, and there are 7M people in Massachusetts, including many with net worths in the millions. https://www.nbcboston.com/news/local/these-are-the-16-richest-people-living-in-massachusetts-forbes-says/2510093/ https://www.nbcboston.com/news/local/these-are-the-16-riches...
  - TylerE 4y ago
    Lots of people with zero or even negative net worths too
- cmdli 4y ago
  > The primary structural issue is that low-income wages have completely stagnated if not fallen with the inflation over the last several decades while wages for mid-upper to ultrawealthy have gone up, dramatically. This is statistically untrue, though a very popular misconception. Median wages have increased slightly after adjusting for inflation over the past few decades [1]. Minimum wage has wavered a bit since then, but most people are not employed at the federal minimum wage [2]. [1] https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MEPAINUSA672N https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MEPAINUSA672N [2] https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LEU0203127200A https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LEU0203127200A
lifeisstillgood 4y ago
Structural issues are basically the rise of AirBNB - hotels with far less regulation / staff coverage. Now probably 99% of that regulation provided real tangible benefits to the customer and or the staff. I mean if suddenly a competitor arrives in your industry selling the same product, with near zero marginal costs, and half the time they cannot price correctly and are happy to see "any" income there might be issues for your industry. Edit: oh Ok - structural in the supply of labour. In the UK that is hugely labelled Brexit, but it is interesting to see a problem elsewhere - As others say Covid shock is most likely as people re-evaluate what they are willing to tolerate.

lotsofpulp 4y ago

The structural issue is that Covid allowed for the activation energy for people to find better jobs. And possibly cut down on supply of people willing to work hotel cleaning jobs for low pay. It is probably among the least desirable work. Volatile hours, busiest times are weekends and holidays, literally cleaning up anything from bodily fluids to garbage and dealing with smells. No one outside of large unionized hotels in big cities is offering a decent salary with predictable schedule. The small franchise hotels have less than 50 employees, so they have no employer subsidized benefits either like access to 401k, public transit credits, or other tax advantaged accounts.

missedthecue 4y ago
Why has the workforce participation rate cratered? If people simply changed to a better job, that figure would hold steady. Instead it shows us that millions of Americans decided to stop looking for work.
- lotsofpulp 4y ago
  I do not think it has cratered in the US. https://www.bls.gov/charts/employment-situation/civilian-labor-force-participation-rate.htm https://www.bls.gov/charts/employment-situation/civilian-lab... Just 1 percent, 63% to 62%, which could just be aging demographics since a greater and greater proportion of people in America are going to be too old to work, especially for hard labor work like cleaning hotel rooms. Also, hotels (and other low pay to quality of life at work ratio employers) were already struggling before COVID. COVID just accelerated the inevitable.
  - missedthecue 4y ago
    Look how much the workforce participation rate has varied over the last 20 years. Only a few percentage points even through massive global recessions. Small percentage changes in this statistic can easily deceive the layman into thinking it's not a big deal.
    - lotsofpulp 4y ago
      I do not understand why a change from 63% to 62% is a sufficiently big deal to be able to claim “millions of Americans decided to stop looking for work”, especially when we know a greater and greater proportion of the population is elderly who cannot work.
      - echelon 4y ago
        I would really love to see these statistics broken down by industry, salary band, age, etc.
        shagie 4y ago
        https://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/empsit.pdf https://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/empsit.pdf Table A on page 5 has one breakdown. Table B on page 6 has employment by industry.
      - acchow 4y ago
        Working age population is 207M. So 1% actually translates to millions of people (2 million)
        lotsofpulp 4y ago
        I admit that is technically true, but due to their use of the word “cratered”, I was reading the phrase to mean that relatively large amounts of people have decided to no longer work (outside of those who have decided to no longer work due to aging out). Of course, prices are set at the margin, and so if hotels (and other businesses like restaurants and retail) were used to paying the lowest pay to quality of life at work ratio, then I guess it would be accurate to say their problem is a couple million people decided to no longer work, because presumably a greater proportion of those who decided to no longer work would have been from these least desirable to work in businesses.
- c4ptnjack 4y ago
  It has actually rebounded to 1 percent less than it was prepandemic, and health risks were legitimate reasons for people to not work for a period. Really it shows since 2002 the rate has gone down fairly consistently, show overtime it's worth less and less to work. The main factor in choosing a job is pay in the end and that's also the main variable when choosing to work or not imo. https://www.bls.gov/charts/employment-situation/civilian-labor-force-participation-rate.htm https://www.bls.gov/charts/employment-situation/civilian-lab...
- shagie 4y ago
  Some portion retired. https://wapo.st/3VgOxf8 https://wapo.st/3VgOxf8 https://www.forbes.com/sites/ashleystahl/2022/03/03/are-boomers-the-answer-to-the-great-resignation/ https://www.forbes.com/sites/ashleystahl/2022/03/03/are-boom... Another portion is no longer able to work those jobs (especially service sector jobs where one is required to show up for a shift or get fired). New data shows long Covid is keeping as many as 4 million people out of work - https://www.brookings.edu/research/new-data-shows-long-covid-is-keeping-as-many-as-4-million-people-out-of-work/ https://www.brookings.edu/research/new-data-shows-long-covid... https://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/empsit.pdf https://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/empsit.pdf > The number of persons not in the labor force who currently want a job was little changed at 5.6 million in November and remains above its February 2020 level of 5.0 million. These individuals were not counted as unemployed because they were not actively looking for work during the 4 weeks preceding the survey or were unavailable to take a job. > Among those not in the labor force who wanted a job, the number of persons marginally attached to the labor force held at 1.5 million in November. These individuals wanted and were available for work and had looked for a job sometime in the prior 12 months but had not looked for work in the 4 weeks preceding the survey. The number of discouraged workers, a subset of the marginally attached who believed that no jobs were available for them, was 405,000 in November, little changed from the previous month. (See Summary table A.)
- rurp 4y ago
  Yes several million workers died, retired early, or weren't allowed to immigrate to the US.
  - midoridensha 4y ago
    >or weren't allowed to immigrate to the US. Which is exactly as it should be. ~Half the country doesn't want them. If that results in hotel stays being absurdly expensive (or perhaps changing laws so that hotel rooms don't need to be cleaned between guests), then so be it. America is democratic, and the people have spoken, so now let them suffer the consequences.
    - lotsofpulp 4y ago
      > or perhaps changing laws so that hotel rooms don't need to be cleaned between guests I do not think there are any laws requiring this. It probably just has not been price competitive enough to hand a customer the housekeeping cart at check in.

KennyBlanken 4y ago

The primary structural issue is that low-income wages have completely stagnated if not fallen with the inflation over the last several decades while wages for mid-upper to ultrawealthy have gone up, dramatically. The number of places in the US that you can get a 2BR home, rental or owning, on minimum wage is basically non-existent. We're on the verge of large swaths of the US population effectively becoming serfs. Housing is being snapped up by corporations, banks are jacking their fees and making more and more people "unbankable" forcing them into non-bank situations like payroll-company-run quasi-debit-cards where withdrawing their wages costs money. Consider this: Elon Musk at peak of his wealth had more money than all the residents of Massachusetts (itself quite a wealthy state) combined, by a significant margin. We're at a stage where we have what amounts to feudal lords in all but name, complete with their own private security forces going around roughing up people.

lotsofpulp 4y ago
>Consider this: Elon Musk at peak of his wealth had more money than all the residents of Massachusetts (itself quite a wealthy state) combined, by a significant margin. There is no way this is anywhere near true. The list below alone is probably $100B, and there are 7M people in Massachusetts, including many with net worths in the millions. https://www.nbcboston.com/news/local/these-are-the-16-richest-people-living-in-massachusetts-forbes-says/2510093/ https://www.nbcboston.com/news/local/these-are-the-16-riches...
- TylerE 4y ago
  Lots of people with zero or even negative net worths too
cmdli 4y ago
> The primary structural issue is that low-income wages have completely stagnated if not fallen with the inflation over the last several decades while wages for mid-upper to ultrawealthy have gone up, dramatically. This is statistically untrue, though a very popular misconception. Median wages have increased slightly after adjusting for inflation over the past few decades [1]. Minimum wage has wavered a bit since then, but most people are not employed at the federal minimum wage [2]. [1] https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MEPAINUSA672N https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MEPAINUSA672N [2] https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LEU0203127200A https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LEU0203127200A

lifeisstillgood 4y ago

Structural issues are basically the rise of AirBNB - hotels with far less regulation / staff coverage. Now probably 99% of that regulation provided real tangible benefits to the customer and or the staff. I mean if suddenly a competitor arrives in your industry selling the same product, with near zero marginal costs, and half the time they cannot price correctly and are happy to see "any" income there might be issues for your industry. Edit: oh Ok - structural in the supply of labour. In the UK that is hugely labelled Brexit, but it is interesting to see a problem elsewhere - As others say Covid shock is most likely as people re-evaluate what they are willing to tolerate.