4 ms·

People had ~3 years to find new jobs outside of hospitality after the industry basically shut down. No one is sitting at home, they found new jobs. There's als

People had ~3 years to find new jobs outside of hospitality after the industry basically shut down. No one is sitting at home, they found new jobs. There's also the toll COVID took on the workforce, and COVID-related disabilities.

missedthecue 4y ago
This can't be the explanation. If it were true, the workforce participation rate would be steady. Changing jobs doesn't raise or lower that figure. A person is employed whether they scrub toilets or do brain surgery. But it's not steady. Literally millions of people have stopped working and looking for work since 2020.
- gitfan86 4y ago
  People realized that they didn't need to work shitty jobs. They could Uber part time, or work as a nanny without reporting as a full time employee or cut down on their living expenses or live off of government programs. Just look at how many people live in tents in California.
- crooked-v 4y ago
  Well, about 1,245,000 of them died [1], and I'm sure there were a substantial number of older working-age people who went for early retirement to reduce the chances of dying from public contact. [1]: https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/excess_deaths.htm https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/excess_deaths.htm
  - missedthecue 4y ago
    1.2 million people in the workforce died? 70% of covid deaths were over the age of 70 years. https://www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/pnas.2006392117 https://www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/pnas.2006392117
    - MonkeyMalarky 4y ago
      I hope this isn't too shocking but a lot of janitorial and housekeeping work is done by retirement aged people who don't have enough money to actually retire.
      - mikeyouse 4y ago
        The other big piece - especially to the hospitality puzzle - is that immigration was substantially reduced. First politically and then due to Covid. If you look at the number of work visas issued by year, we’re short literally millions of immigrants that would be doing much of the grunt work in restaurants and hotels.
        EricDeb 4y ago
        visas are taking forever at the moment.. for any type
        rippercushions 4y ago
        Yup. In many countries you're looking at a wait of over a year to get an appointment for a tourist visa interview.
    - shagie 4y ago
      4M of them got long covid and are unable to be worker that is sufficiently reliable for shift work in the service sector. https://www.brookings.edu/research/new-data-shows-long-covid-is-keeping-as-many-as-4-million-people-out-of-work/ https://www.brookings.edu/research/new-data-shows-long-covid...
      - tluyben2 4y ago
        That’s what is a massive issue I see in the EU even if it’s underreported; too many people I know cannot work because of long covid. Some tried anyway and burnt out because of trying too hard; now they have 2 problems. Luckily most of them are in NL where you won’t end up in a tent under a bridge, but I think long covid is taken way too light (at least over here).
- nitwit005 4y ago
  You can find (more than a year old at this point) articles from bar owners trying to re-hire their old staff. Those people found new jobs, because they had no choice. They couldn't afford to not work for years. And, unsurprisingly, they wanted more money to return. Restaurants, hotels, and the like, tend to be extra stress for no more pay.
- bachmeier 4y ago
  Interesting piece of data that's seldom cited: Sep 2015 labor force participation rate: 62.4% August 2022 labor force participation rate: 62.4% https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CIVPART https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CIVPART
  - cmdli 4y ago
    I mean, you did pick a particularly low point on that series. It looks like the average pre-pandemic is closer to 63.0%.
    - vxNsr 4y ago
      0.6% accounts for all the open positions?
      - brookst 4y ago
        That’s about 1.5m people, so. . . Maybe?
- deleted 4y ago
  [deleted]
refurb 4y ago
This is the most reasonable explanation. I even know a couple people whose jobs were affected by Covid took the time (and government support) to do a career change. It happened with the airlines too. When you're without a job for more than a year, people move onto new companies, new careers or just retire early. Singapore airlines continued to pay their pilots to not fly during Covid, knowing it would be tough as hell to restaff once they opened up. Apparently they rotated them through what little flights were available (cargo predominated) to maintain their skills. Once flights were restarted, they had no problem with staff shortages.
- heavyset_go 4y ago
  I've personally watched people go from the food industry into software development because COVID reduced demand for restaurants for years.
  - hinata08 4y ago
    I went from engineering to IT too Engineering companies spent all my uni years at fairs to show politicians how they develop business in the area, but lack workers and need assistance from the public services Fast forward to covid, they wouldn't hire you because they didn't have the projects, they wanted to hire workers with experience, market was tight so you had to understand the pay was low, they could find someone else, ... So I went to an IT company, they really hired workers. And I'll stay. I declined interviews with these engineering companies that called back a few months later. And I can't wait to go back to these fairs to call them liars. In my place, there is also the same case with restaurants. The government gave them money to continue to exist through covid. But most of them fired workers to use the money to buy new kitchens. Now they're complaining about the lack of workforce, blame unemployment benefits (ironic) and are lobbying to give visas to underpaid foreigners.

missedthecue 4y ago

This can't be the explanation. If it were true, the workforce participation rate would be steady. Changing jobs doesn't raise or lower that figure. A person is employed whether they scrub toilets or do brain surgery. But it's not steady. Literally millions of people have stopped working and looking for work since 2020.

gitfan86 4y ago
People realized that they didn't need to work shitty jobs. They could Uber part time, or work as a nanny without reporting as a full time employee or cut down on their living expenses or live off of government programs. Just look at how many people live in tents in California.
crooked-v 4y ago
Well, about 1,245,000 of them died [1], and I'm sure there were a substantial number of older working-age people who went for early retirement to reduce the chances of dying from public contact. [1]: https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/excess_deaths.htm https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/excess_deaths.htm
- missedthecue 4y ago
  1.2 million people in the workforce died? 70% of covid deaths were over the age of 70 years. https://www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/pnas.2006392117 https://www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/pnas.2006392117
  - MonkeyMalarky 4y ago
    I hope this isn't too shocking but a lot of janitorial and housekeeping work is done by retirement aged people who don't have enough money to actually retire.
    - mikeyouse 4y ago
      The other big piece - especially to the hospitality puzzle - is that immigration was substantially reduced. First politically and then due to Covid. If you look at the number of work visas issued by year, we’re short literally millions of immigrants that would be doing much of the grunt work in restaurants and hotels.
      - EricDeb 4y ago
        visas are taking forever at the moment.. for any type
        rippercushions 4y ago
        Yup. In many countries you're looking at a wait of over a year to get an appointment for a tourist visa interview.
  - shagie 4y ago
    4M of them got long covid and are unable to be worker that is sufficiently reliable for shift work in the service sector. https://www.brookings.edu/research/new-data-shows-long-covid-is-keeping-as-many-as-4-million-people-out-of-work/ https://www.brookings.edu/research/new-data-shows-long-covid...
    - tluyben2 4y ago
      That’s what is a massive issue I see in the EU even if it’s underreported; too many people I know cannot work because of long covid. Some tried anyway and burnt out because of trying too hard; now they have 2 problems. Luckily most of them are in NL where you won’t end up in a tent under a bridge, but I think long covid is taken way too light (at least over here).
nitwit005 4y ago
You can find (more than a year old at this point) articles from bar owners trying to re-hire their old staff. Those people found new jobs, because they had no choice. They couldn't afford to not work for years. And, unsurprisingly, they wanted more money to return. Restaurants, hotels, and the like, tend to be extra stress for no more pay.
bachmeier 4y ago
Interesting piece of data that's seldom cited: Sep 2015 labor force participation rate: 62.4% August 2022 labor force participation rate: 62.4% https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CIVPART https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CIVPART
- cmdli 4y ago
  I mean, you did pick a particularly low point on that series. It looks like the average pre-pandemic is closer to 63.0%.
  - vxNsr 4y ago
    0.6% accounts for all the open positions?
    - brookst 4y ago
      That’s about 1.5m people, so. . . Maybe?
deleted 4y ago
[deleted]

refurb 4y ago

This is the most reasonable explanation. I even know a couple people whose jobs were affected by Covid took the time (and government support) to do a career change. It happened with the airlines too. When you're without a job for more than a year, people move onto new companies, new careers or just retire early. Singapore airlines continued to pay their pilots to not fly during Covid, knowing it would be tough as hell to restaff once they opened up. Apparently they rotated them through what little flights were available (cargo predominated) to maintain their skills. Once flights were restarted, they had no problem with staff shortages.

heavyset_go 4y ago
I've personally watched people go from the food industry into software development because COVID reduced demand for restaurants for years.
- hinata08 4y ago
  I went from engineering to IT too Engineering companies spent all my uni years at fairs to show politicians how they develop business in the area, but lack workers and need assistance from the public services Fast forward to covid, they wouldn't hire you because they didn't have the projects, they wanted to hire workers with experience, market was tight so you had to understand the pay was low, they could find someone else, ... So I went to an IT company, they really hired workers. And I'll stay. I declined interviews with these engineering companies that called back a few months later. And I can't wait to go back to these fairs to call them liars. In my place, there is also the same case with restaurants. The government gave them money to continue to exist through covid. But most of them fired workers to use the money to buy new kitchens. Now they're complaining about the lack of workforce, blame unemployment benefits (ironic) and are lobbying to give visas to underpaid foreigners.