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> all motor vehicles will be electric I guess I’m one of the crazies who would bet against this happening in my lifetime at least. The problems with grid capac

by aksss 4y ago

> all motor vehicles will be electric I guess I’m one of the crazies who would bet against this happening in my lifetime at least. The problems with grid capacity for scaling up electric vehicles, their unsuitability for long uninterrupted trips, lack of towing performance, etc., seem well-covered enough that the notion of no new ice vehicles seems like a bright-eyed futurist pipe dream at this point. Could it happen some day? Sure, but the futurist’s problem is all about timing, not direction.

ryukafalz 4y ago
100% may be unlikely but certainly most. The vast majority of trips aren't long uninterrupted ones beyond the range of even current EVs nor do they require towing performance. Grid capacity maybe. It would help if people stopped buying massively oversized vehicles for their actual everyday use in general. (But overall I'm fairly optimistic that EVs can be accounted for.)
- aksss 4y ago
  > majority of trips Majority of trips don’t exceed the capabilities of a Smart car. My CPU goes mostly unused. We don’t size for even the mean, but the realistically conceivable max (capability or capacity). > Grid capacity We struggle to support the demand for air conditioning and actively ask people to reduce their demand on the grid. Increasing demand by orders of magnitude seems inconceivable without a radical increase in generating capacity, which imposes a huge time constraint at the very least. Again, I’m not arguing the direction, mostly just that the timeframe which to me seems a lot, lot longer than the popular representations.
  - ryukafalz 4y ago
    > Majority of trips don’t exceed the capabilities of a Smart car. Correct, that's why I drive a Smart car.
- lelanthran 4y ago
  > The vast majority of trips aren't long uninterrupted ones beyond the range of even current EVs nor do they require towing performance. Buyers tend to buy for multiple uses. Their vast majority of trips may be in the range of current EVs, but they still wouldn't purchase a car that can't do 1 trip out of every 30.
  - ryukafalz 4y ago
    I would guess it's far lower than 1 out of every 30 for most people. The number of cars I see towing anything on the highway or in town is miniscule, and the share of all trips above 30 miles is just 5%. https://afdc.energy.gov/data/mobile/10318 https://afdc.energy.gov/data/mobile/10318 I wish this data was segmented further, because 30 miles each way is no problem for an EV! But still, a longer trip doesn't mean you can't make the trip - especially with the number of fast chargers increasing, it just means you have to stop to charge a bit longer than if you'd stopped for gas. (But as an aside, I really wish car share systems were more common in the US. It feels silly to have everyone driving around in oversized vehicles when they're only occasionally needed.)
    - lelanthran 4y ago
      > I would guess it's far lower than 1 out of every 30 for most people. So? It doesn't have to apply to most people, it just has to apply to many, and judging from the number of trailers that are sold, and aftermarket towbars that are installed, many people actually do intend to use their car for towing.
yellowapple 4y ago
> The problems with grid capacity for scaling up electric vehicles, their unsuitability for long uninterrupted trips, lack of towing performance, etc., seem well-covered enough Those are very temporary problems. I would be very surprised if EVs don't end up outperforming ICEVs on all those metrics within a decade or two, and that's a pretty conservative estimate.
- holbrad 4y ago
  Certain for large lorries it's an unsolved issue, unless we have a large battery breakthrough. The weight of the battery to actually move goods very quickly becomes a major issue.
  - deleted 4y ago
    [deleted]
  - bin_bash 4y ago
    Engineering Explained did some estimation around this and doesn’t think weight is likely to be a serious issue. https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=Uv44W7xa4IU https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=Uv44W7xa4IU Granted that’s in part because EV trucks are allowed to be 2000 lbs heavier than ICE trucks in the US.

by aksss 4y ago

ryukafalz 4y ago

100% may be unlikely but certainly most. The vast majority of trips aren't long uninterrupted ones beyond the range of even current EVs nor do they require towing performance. Grid capacity maybe. It would help if people stopped buying massively oversized vehicles for their actual everyday use in general. (But overall I'm fairly optimistic that EVs can be accounted for.)

aksss 4y ago
> majority of trips Majority of trips don’t exceed the capabilities of a Smart car. My CPU goes mostly unused. We don’t size for even the mean, but the realistically conceivable max (capability or capacity). > Grid capacity We struggle to support the demand for air conditioning and actively ask people to reduce their demand on the grid. Increasing demand by orders of magnitude seems inconceivable without a radical increase in generating capacity, which imposes a huge time constraint at the very least. Again, I’m not arguing the direction, mostly just that the timeframe which to me seems a lot, lot longer than the popular representations.
- ryukafalz 4y ago
  > Majority of trips don’t exceed the capabilities of a Smart car. Correct, that's why I drive a Smart car.
lelanthran 4y ago
> The vast majority of trips aren't long uninterrupted ones beyond the range of even current EVs nor do they require towing performance. Buyers tend to buy for multiple uses. Their vast majority of trips may be in the range of current EVs, but they still wouldn't purchase a car that can't do 1 trip out of every 30.
- ryukafalz 4y ago
  I would guess it's far lower than 1 out of every 30 for most people. The number of cars I see towing anything on the highway or in town is miniscule, and the share of all trips above 30 miles is just 5%. https://afdc.energy.gov/data/mobile/10318 https://afdc.energy.gov/data/mobile/10318 I wish this data was segmented further, because 30 miles each way is no problem for an EV! But still, a longer trip doesn't mean you can't make the trip - especially with the number of fast chargers increasing, it just means you have to stop to charge a bit longer than if you'd stopped for gas. (But as an aside, I really wish car share systems were more common in the US. It feels silly to have everyone driving around in oversized vehicles when they're only occasionally needed.)
  - lelanthran 4y ago
    > I would guess it's far lower than 1 out of every 30 for most people. So? It doesn't have to apply to most people, it just has to apply to many, and judging from the number of trailers that are sold, and aftermarket towbars that are installed, many people actually do intend to use their car for towing.

yellowapple 4y ago

> The problems with grid capacity for scaling up electric vehicles, their unsuitability for long uninterrupted trips, lack of towing performance, etc., seem well-covered enough Those are very temporary problems. I would be very surprised if EVs don't end up outperforming ICEVs on all those metrics within a decade or two, and that's a pretty conservative estimate.

holbrad 4y ago
Certain for large lorries it's an unsolved issue, unless we have a large battery breakthrough. The weight of the battery to actually move goods very quickly becomes a major issue.
- deleted 4y ago
  [deleted]
- bin_bash 4y ago
  Engineering Explained did some estimation around this and doesn’t think weight is likely to be a serious issue. https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=Uv44W7xa4IU https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=Uv44W7xa4IU Granted that’s in part because EV trucks are allowed to be 2000 lbs heavier than ICE trucks in the US.