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I think AlbertCory was saying that to assign specific probabilities, as the Drake equation does, is BS. To say "there's probably life out there", in a vague, s
by booleandilemma 4y ago
I think AlbertCory was saying that to assign specific probabilities, as the Drake equation does, is BS.
To say "there's probably life out there", in a vague, speculative sense of probably, is a different sort of thing.
- AlbertCory 4y agoThanks, right. It's like saying "the probability of a market crash is 0.01." There is no number you can put on it.
- pfdietz 4y agoEven then, he is putting bounds on probabilities. Specifically, that the chance that life arises around a random star is >> 1/(number of stars in visible universe). The argument is really just trying to elevate vague and incorrect intuition beyond anywhere it has any right to be. It comes from not understanding just how serious a bias can be introduced by observer selection.