4 ms·

It feels like we've been waiting 6 months for the last 12 months for the downturn to start any day now. We're in uncharted territory. The economy sucks yet peop

by yardie 4y ago

It feels like we've been waiting 6 months for the last 12 months for the downturn to start any day now. We're in uncharted territory. The economy sucks yet people are employed, wages are down, and cost of living is way up.

benjaminwootton 4y ago
People were talking about a recession in mid 2021 as I remember it. Still waiting….
- heurist 4y ago
  It's been coming since 2018, 2015, 2013, and 2010. The fed rate hikes are a new thing but could also be reversed quickly if any s does htf.
vikingerik 4y ago
The economy doesn't suck. Most of the 2022 numbers that look bad are really artifacts of year-over-year reporting, being compared to numbers from 2021 that were artificially high because of time-shifted demand from the pandemic in 2020. Compare 2022 to 2019 and most things look fairly normal for a three-year period. Remember the "great resignation"? That was never a thing - people aren't leaving the workforce - it was just time-shifted demand for job switching that didn't happen during the pandemic, so that some transient numbers looked high.
- gruez 4y ago
  >Remember the "great resignation"? That was never a thing - people aren't leaving the workforce - it was just time-shifted demand for job switching that didn't happen during the pandemic, so that some transient numbers looked high. What is this based on? Labor force participation rate[1] is still visibly lower than pre-pandemic levels. [1] https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CIVPART https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CIVPART
  - vikingerik 4y ago
    The y-axis is quite zoomed in on that chart. The difference from early 2020 to late 2022 is only one percentage point, and that's probably entirely explained by normal aging patterns.
    - gruez 4y ago
      It might be only 1%, but if you eyeball the trend there's definitely a reversal between 2019 and today.
Izkata 4y ago
> The economy sucks yet people are employed Possibly only because it's still early. Unemployment doesn't lead up to recessions, it spikes months afterwards, and usually maxes out just after the recessions end: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/UNRATE https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/UNRATE

by yardie 4y ago

benjaminwootton 4y ago

People were talking about a recession in mid 2021 as I remember it. Still waiting….

heurist 4y ago
It's been coming since 2018, 2015, 2013, and 2010. The fed rate hikes are a new thing but could also be reversed quickly if any s does htf.

vikingerik 4y ago

The economy doesn't suck. Most of the 2022 numbers that look bad are really artifacts of year-over-year reporting, being compared to numbers from 2021 that were artificially high because of time-shifted demand from the pandemic in 2020. Compare 2022 to 2019 and most things look fairly normal for a three-year period. Remember the "great resignation"? That was never a thing - people aren't leaving the workforce - it was just time-shifted demand for job switching that didn't happen during the pandemic, so that some transient numbers looked high.

gruez 4y ago
>Remember the "great resignation"? That was never a thing - people aren't leaving the workforce - it was just time-shifted demand for job switching that didn't happen during the pandemic, so that some transient numbers looked high. What is this based on? Labor force participation rate[1] is still visibly lower than pre-pandemic levels. [1] https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CIVPART https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CIVPART
- vikingerik 4y ago
  The y-axis is quite zoomed in on that chart. The difference from early 2020 to late 2022 is only one percentage point, and that's probably entirely explained by normal aging patterns.
  - gruez 4y ago
    It might be only 1%, but if you eyeball the trend there's definitely a reversal between 2019 and today.

Izkata 4y ago

> The economy sucks yet people are employed Possibly only because it's still early. Unemployment doesn't lead up to recessions, it spikes months afterwards, and usually maxes out just after the recessions end: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/UNRATE https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/UNRATE