5 ms·

Downturn didnt even really start. Wait like 8 more months and put your seatbelts now.

yardie 4y ago
It feels like we've been waiting 6 months for the last 12 months for the downturn to start any day now. We're in uncharted territory. The economy sucks yet people are employed, wages are down, and cost of living is way up.
- benjaminwootton 4y ago
  People were talking about a recession in mid 2021 as I remember it. Still waiting….
  - heurist 4y ago
    It's been coming since 2018, 2015, 2013, and 2010. The fed rate hikes are a new thing but could also be reversed quickly if any s does htf.
- vikingerik 4y ago
  The economy doesn't suck. Most of the 2022 numbers that look bad are really artifacts of year-over-year reporting, being compared to numbers from 2021 that were artificially high because of time-shifted demand from the pandemic in 2020. Compare 2022 to 2019 and most things look fairly normal for a three-year period. Remember the "great resignation"? That was never a thing - people aren't leaving the workforce - it was just time-shifted demand for job switching that didn't happen during the pandemic, so that some transient numbers looked high.
  - gruez 4y ago
    >Remember the "great resignation"? That was never a thing - people aren't leaving the workforce - it was just time-shifted demand for job switching that didn't happen during the pandemic, so that some transient numbers looked high. What is this based on? Labor force participation rate[1] is still visibly lower than pre-pandemic levels. [1] https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CIVPART https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CIVPART
    - vikingerik 4y ago
      The y-axis is quite zoomed in on that chart. The difference from early 2020 to late 2022 is only one percentage point, and that's probably entirely explained by normal aging patterns.
      - gruez 4y ago
        It might be only 1%, but if you eyeball the trend there's definitely a reversal between 2019 and today.
- Izkata 4y ago
  > The economy sucks yet people are employed Possibly only because it's still early. Unemployment doesn't lead up to recessions, it spikes months afterwards, and usually maxes out just after the recessions end: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/UNRATE https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/UNRATE
mardifoufs 4y ago
On the other hand we will probably keep hearing "it's getting worse in 2 more weeks" doomerisms until the downturn clears up.
acchow 4y ago
We don't know. Currently, the fed is still saying December's CPI print (coming on January 12) may be high. But looking at the futures market, it seems like almost everything is down significantly and we might see the first CPI print of 0% MoM in a year. Is the fed keeping this narrative to temper the market and slow it down? Or do they know something we don't? If January 12 shows 0% or even negative MoM, it's possible interest rates could come down in 2023.
trustfundbaby 4y ago
I don't think that massive downturn people are thinking is coming ... is going to come. The job market is too strong (because of lower immigration, and how many exited the job market during covid) and so is the housing market. I thinks its going to be more like this for the next 8-12 months, until the fed stops raising interest rates, and then it will be a mad dash to get everything going again.
- projectazorian 4y ago
  This. Because of 2008 and Covid people have a bias toward thinking that every economic slowdown is destined to be a massive dislocation.
- culi 4y ago
  Is lower immigration becoming less of a factor now that remote work is nearly the norm?
disambiguation 4y ago
maybe this is true, maybe not, but from the perspective of a worker, employed, or otherwise, what does it matter? if you're employed you still need to be working hard, like always if you're unemployed you still need to be seeking employment, like always so, why do i care about the economy? is there something i'm supposed to be doing about it?

It feels like we've been waiting 6 months for the last 12 months for the downturn to start any day now. We're in uncharted territory. The economy sucks yet people are employed, wages are down, and cost of living is way up.

benjaminwootton 4y ago
People were talking about a recession in mid 2021 as I remember it. Still waiting….
- heurist 4y ago
  It's been coming since 2018, 2015, 2013, and 2010. The fed rate hikes are a new thing but could also be reversed quickly if any s does htf.
vikingerik 4y ago
The economy doesn't suck. Most of the 2022 numbers that look bad are really artifacts of year-over-year reporting, being compared to numbers from 2021 that were artificially high because of time-shifted demand from the pandemic in 2020. Compare 2022 to 2019 and most things look fairly normal for a three-year period. Remember the "great resignation"? That was never a thing - people aren't leaving the workforce - it was just time-shifted demand for job switching that didn't happen during the pandemic, so that some transient numbers looked high.
- gruez 4y ago
  >Remember the "great resignation"? That was never a thing - people aren't leaving the workforce - it was just time-shifted demand for job switching that didn't happen during the pandemic, so that some transient numbers looked high. What is this based on? Labor force participation rate[1] is still visibly lower than pre-pandemic levels. [1] https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CIVPART https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CIVPART
  - vikingerik 4y ago
    The y-axis is quite zoomed in on that chart. The difference from early 2020 to late 2022 is only one percentage point, and that's probably entirely explained by normal aging patterns.
    - gruez 4y ago
      It might be only 1%, but if you eyeball the trend there's definitely a reversal between 2019 and today.
Izkata 4y ago
> The economy sucks yet people are employed Possibly only because it's still early. Unemployment doesn't lead up to recessions, it spikes months afterwards, and usually maxes out just after the recessions end: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/UNRATE https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/UNRATE

mardifoufs 4y ago

On the other hand we will probably keep hearing "it's getting worse in 2 more weeks" doomerisms until the downturn clears up.

acchow 4y ago

We don't know. Currently, the fed is still saying December's CPI print (coming on January 12) may be high. But looking at the futures market, it seems like almost everything is down significantly and we might see the first CPI print of 0% MoM in a year. Is the fed keeping this narrative to temper the market and slow it down? Or do they know something we don't? If January 12 shows 0% or even negative MoM, it's possible interest rates could come down in 2023.

trustfundbaby 4y ago

I don't think that massive downturn people are thinking is coming ... is going to come. The job market is too strong (because of lower immigration, and how many exited the job market during covid) and so is the housing market. I thinks its going to be more like this for the next 8-12 months, until the fed stops raising interest rates, and then it will be a mad dash to get everything going again.

projectazorian 4y ago
This. Because of 2008 and Covid people have a bias toward thinking that every economic slowdown is destined to be a massive dislocation.
culi 4y ago
Is lower immigration becoming less of a factor now that remote work is nearly the norm?

disambiguation 4y ago

maybe this is true, maybe not, but from the perspective of a worker, employed, or otherwise, what does it matter? if you're employed you still need to be working hard, like always if you're unemployed you still need to be seeking employment, like always so, why do i care about the economy? is there something i'm supposed to be doing about it?