2 ms·
I was explaining the project estimation process to my 8 year old (whip smart) daughter and told her about the "Estimate then add 10%" heuristic and she immediat
by AndrewKemendo 4y ago
I was explaining the project estimation process to my 8 year old (whip smart) daughter and told her about the "Estimate then add 10%" heuristic and she immediately recognized the flaw and said, yeah then add 10% to that, then 10% to that, etc...
The reality is, estimates are a business function not an engineering function.
Once you realize that, then you change your approach to: Never take on cold start projects that are business critical
Do this and you'll never have to estimate work that isn't already in some form of progress!
- svantana 4y agoSeems like she independently discovered Hofstadter's Law: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hofstadter%27s_law https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hofstadter%27s_law
- fnordpiglet 4y agoTime to teach her about convergent series :-)
- rqtwteye 4y ago“Once you realize that, then you change your approach to: Never take on cold start projects that are business critical” Unfortunately these are my favorite projects even if it’s a pain to tell management that there is no way to give them meaningful estimates. They pretty much have to agree to invest some money and then see what comes out of it.
- AlbertCory 4y ago> there is no way to give them meaningful estimates Wrong. There is, but it would offend everyone because it ignores all the details. See my post about Thinking Fast and Slow.