3 ms·
The link is a report of a report of many reports. I read, well, skimmed, the linked secondary source, although I didn't even examine the primary sources: Its
by VLM 4y ago
The link is a report of a report of many reports. I read, well, skimmed, the linked secondary source, although I didn't even examine the primary sources:
Its extremely sector specific. No shortage at all in FIRE or retail, huge shortage in hospitality and healthcare.
Most of the hypothesis in the report seems to boil down to COVID caused everything followed by raw data disproving that. hospitality is extremely low paying but USED to be stable reliable income, but now someone in China sneezes and your income disappears for months, so people will do anything to avoid hospitality as a field. It seems the low end job of choice is agriculture now. As for health care, I suspect that however trendy and cool it is to compliment our brave health care workers by making congratulatory social media posts for karma, very few people want to get involved in that mess. Much like voluntary soldier recruitment after an unpopular war is an uphill battle for awhile.
A truly remarkable number of older people are out of the job market on disability. Cardio trends are flat (edited: slope 0) to declining so its probably not obesity related although the UK is certainly not getting thinner? Mental health is on a flat growth rate (edited, flat line upward slope not slope being zero) of about 2% additional of the population per decade which is starting to add up significantly over time. Fewer students than ever are going to school while working, the market seems too competitive to risk their grades by working and/or student loans make more sense than working. Between those very young and very old ages there is little change.
There is some inevitability to the UK problems, because as per Chapter 3's intro, the current problem is caused by a 2% decline in working age labor force participation rate, which would have happened anyway in a decade due to the 2% increase in mental health disability cases per decade. I mean something like the future is distributed unevenly, and in a sense this is all a straight line extrapolation of more than decades old trends and the UK is economically speaking in 2032 rather than 2022. Everything happening now was going to happen in a couple years, not now. Any surprise about the situation is fake PR.
Several graphs explaining access to health care in the UK is in a long term collapse, 1 in 20 adults are on a waiting list of some sort, etc. The report strongly implies without stating that ongoing collapse of the medical system is not helping old people stay in the workforce.
It seems most of the UKs problems are frozen by divide and conqueror approach; after the health care system completely collapses and is replaced (by what?) the situation will resolve itself, but interests on all sides are too entrenched to fix anything until after it breaks.