3 ms·

Hmm, suddenly these employers will doubtless be calling for state intervention.

skippyboxedhero 4y ago
This has already happened. This year that was coordinated lobbying to increase visa numbers to the UK. The result was that 2022 was the highest level of immigration...ever. And, of course, this started out with only being "skilled labour" but was quickly expanded to professions earning £20k/year. Productivity has gone nowhere, there are millions either unemployed or under-employed (there is reason to believe that the UK is under-reporting unemployment significantly due to how the welfare system works)...quite simply, whether you believe immigration is bad or good in theory, the supply of labour is massively in excess of demand in the UK.
- pjc50 4y ago
  Evidence for this? Do we have a breakdown of the visa issuance? Are people double-counting students again?
  - skippyboxedhero 4y ago
    https://commonslibrary.parliament.uk/research-briefings/sn06077/ https://commonslibrary.parliament.uk/research-briefings/sn06... - net was 500k, the problem with students is significantly understated because (if you can believe it) students are actually able to bring their families. So you have someone on a student visa from West Africa (this is overwhelmingly the source of this problem), they bung £10k to someone who runs a "university", they bring over their extended family (5-10 people), and there is basically no way to deport them now even once the student visa ends. I agree, the statistics are basically unknown precisely...but the context would indicate that the size of flows are understated (the reproduction rate of non-migrants in the UK is not enough to produce population growth...since 1990, UK population is up 18%).
    - pjc50 4y ago
      > they bring over their extended family (5-10 people) How? Being a student only entitles you at most to bring over a partner and dependent children. https://www.internationalstudents.cam.ac.uk/dependant-visas https://www.internationalstudents.cam.ac.uk/dependant-visas They are also required to be financially self sufficient : "As part of the visa application dependants must have sufficient funds to cover living costs in the UK. This is £680 for each month the visa will be valid, up to a maximum of 9 months. This is a total of £6,120 per dependant if the visa will be granted for 9 months or more" > basically no way to deport them now even once the student visa ends Bearing in mind the hostile environment - if your visa has expired you can no longer work, rent or have a bank account - and the fact that the government can and does deport people; I think this isn't true. That very page you linked says "However, the estimates of emigration by former student immigrants are experimental, and the ONS advises against using them to calculate net migration of international students" Because the UK does not do passport checks on exit, unlike Schengen, it's impossible to properly count people who've emigrated again.
      - skippyboxedhero 4y ago
        No, it isn't dependent children but dependents...very big distinction in practice. Being financially self-sufficient makes no difference because they are still using more resources. We aren't selling citizenship like St Kitts, it isn't a car boot sale. What hostile environment? Every other country in Europe is deporting Albanians, we can't. Denmark is returning Syrians, we can't. If your visa expires, there are ways to claim right to remain if you are already here. Okay, and that is why I gave the gross number...which is the highest number ever. And again, the evidence suggests that the UK is retaining more students than expected now (it was the opposite a few years ago).
        pjc50 4y ago
        > No, it isn't dependent children but dependents...very big distinction in practice. Show me in the legislation where people who are non-child dependents of a student can get a visa. > We aren't selling citizenship like St Kitts, it isn't a car boot sale That's the "Tier 1 (entrepreneur) visa". > Every other country in Europe is deporting Albanians, we can't. [citation needed]
fallingfrog 4y ago
Congress is certainly willing to bust strikes in order to keep people from getting sick days. Finally something both sides can agree on! Bipartisanship. As long as it's all about crushing the power of labor.

This has already happened. This year that was coordinated lobbying to increase visa numbers to the UK. The result was that 2022 was the highest level of immigration...ever. And, of course, this started out with only being "skilled labour" but was quickly expanded to professions earning £20k/year. Productivity has gone nowhere, there are millions either unemployed or under-employed (there is reason to believe that the UK is under-reporting unemployment significantly due to how the welfare system works)...quite simply, whether you believe immigration is bad or good in theory, the supply of labour is massively in excess of demand in the UK.

pjc50 4y ago
Evidence for this? Do we have a breakdown of the visa issuance? Are people double-counting students again?
- skippyboxedhero 4y ago
  https://commonslibrary.parliament.uk/research-briefings/sn06077/ https://commonslibrary.parliament.uk/research-briefings/sn06... - net was 500k, the problem with students is significantly understated because (if you can believe it) students are actually able to bring their families. So you have someone on a student visa from West Africa (this is overwhelmingly the source of this problem), they bung £10k to someone who runs a "university", they bring over their extended family (5-10 people), and there is basically no way to deport them now even once the student visa ends. I agree, the statistics are basically unknown precisely...but the context would indicate that the size of flows are understated (the reproduction rate of non-migrants in the UK is not enough to produce population growth...since 1990, UK population is up 18%).
  - pjc50 4y ago
    > they bring over their extended family (5-10 people) How? Being a student only entitles you at most to bring over a partner and dependent children. https://www.internationalstudents.cam.ac.uk/dependant-visas https://www.internationalstudents.cam.ac.uk/dependant-visas They are also required to be financially self sufficient : "As part of the visa application dependants must have sufficient funds to cover living costs in the UK. This is £680 for each month the visa will be valid, up to a maximum of 9 months. This is a total of £6,120 per dependant if the visa will be granted for 9 months or more" > basically no way to deport them now even once the student visa ends Bearing in mind the hostile environment - if your visa has expired you can no longer work, rent or have a bank account - and the fact that the government can and does deport people; I think this isn't true. That very page you linked says "However, the estimates of emigration by former student immigrants are experimental, and the ONS advises against using them to calculate net migration of international students" Because the UK does not do passport checks on exit, unlike Schengen, it's impossible to properly count people who've emigrated again.
    - skippyboxedhero 4y ago
      No, it isn't dependent children but dependents...very big distinction in practice. Being financially self-sufficient makes no difference because they are still using more resources. We aren't selling citizenship like St Kitts, it isn't a car boot sale. What hostile environment? Every other country in Europe is deporting Albanians, we can't. Denmark is returning Syrians, we can't. If your visa expires, there are ways to claim right to remain if you are already here. Okay, and that is why I gave the gross number...which is the highest number ever. And again, the evidence suggests that the UK is retaining more students than expected now (it was the opposite a few years ago).
      - pjc50 4y ago
        > No, it isn't dependent children but dependents...very big distinction in practice. Show me in the legislation where people who are non-child dependents of a student can get a visa. > We aren't selling citizenship like St Kitts, it isn't a car boot sale That's the "Tier 1 (entrepreneur) visa". > Every other country in Europe is deporting Albanians, we can't. [citation needed]

fallingfrog 4y ago

Congress is certainly willing to bust strikes in order to keep people from getting sick days. Finally something both sides can agree on! Bipartisanship. As long as it's all about crushing the power of labor.