This is a nonsense argument. Yes, of course random walks are a thing. But that doesn't mean that skill isn't also a thing. In an adversarial, high stakes game

This is a nonsense argument. Yes, of course random walks are a thing. But that doesn't mean that skill isn't also a thing. In an adversarial, high stakes game where there can be only one winner (like sports, but unlike the stock market where there can be multiple winners) differences in skill show up in statistics well. There are techniques like true score theory[1] that separate skill from luck by looking at variation (which is essentially a way of looking at reversion to mean as I mentioned earlier). Sustained performance over time when looking at skill-based statistics in sport (eg, passes completed in soccer) is not something where a random walk applies. > I'm not saying it directly applies here, but it's a caveat worth mentioning. No, it's not. It's worth mentioning why it doesn't apply here, but by just mentioning it you imply (incorrectly) that it does, which is both misleading an wrong. [1] https://conjointly.com/kb/true-score-theory/ https://conjointly.com/kb/true-score-theory/