4 ms·
I agree with you (although I don't own Meta stock). There isn't an imminent threat of Facebook collapsing, but if you look at things mid to long term the situat
by eklitzke 4y ago
I agree with you (although I don't own Meta stock). There isn't an imminent threat of Facebook collapsing, but if you look at things mid to long term the situation for Facebook isn't that rosy. There is serious competition from newer social media platforms like TikTok. And more importantly, Facebook's revenue is 100% dependent on advertising and their ability to do effective ad targeting is basically dependent on the policies that Google and Apple implement in Android/iOS and Chrome/Safari. Even if you think that Google for example isn't going to seriously change how tracking works in Chrome/Android (since they are also highly dependent on ad revenue), increasing regulation, especially in the EU but also possibly in the USA in the future, could force things to change.
The situation is especially bad for Meta here compared to Google because even though most Google revenue comes from ads, Google still has a bunch of other product verticals like Google Workspace (G Suite), GCP, Android, Chromebooks, GPay, and numerous other products (including moonshot bets like Waymo). And Google doesn't need to rely on ad retargeting nearly as much, they can serve personalized ads just based off the text in search queries and gmail.
In the long term it is very important that Meta diversifies and finds new scalable sources of revenue. Even if you don't think VR has a high probability of success, it's one of their best shots at finding something that has the potential (if everything goes well) to eventually generate serious revenue and diversify their business. It's easy to throw stones but what else do people want from Meta? It's extremely dangerous for them to do nothing. Since they're printing money today they can afford to make these huge bets on their future, and without huge future bets their future looks pretty bleak.
- MisterPea 4y ago> It's easy to throw stones but what else do people want from Meta? Exactly. However, I think their AI play will need to come into fruition - AI as a service will need to be their second cash cow before anything Metaverse
- johnwheeler 4y agoI don’t think any of googles other bets, even when combined, make anyth8ng close to their ad revenue, they are 100% dependent just like Facebook. As I understand it, their advantage over meta is that lots of search is browser based and also they get intent from user keywords
- baandang 4y agoThe main problem is Meta has no imagination and is just going to play it safe and G rated. The killer VR apps are all in creating a rated R type Metaverse that is seedy and dangerous. 80s Manhattan style, not safe for work or children. That would be something wild and create a huge buzz. Instead, we have Horizon Worlds. Basically, Starbucks with fake coffee. The only thing I like about Meta is trading the stock over the next few years as Wall Street goes into convolutions over the burn rate of Reality Labs at each earnings release.