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Disclaimer, I'm in the minority of people that's long Meta's vision into VR and own a good amount of Meta stock. I truly believe that there's like a 95% chanc

Disclaimer, I'm in the minority of people that's long Meta's vision into VR and own a good amount of Meta stock. I truly believe that there's like a 95% chance that Meta builds a great product but it hemorrhages money and will ultimately need to be gimped - but I'm really in it for the 5% chance that it is a home run on the financials. What Zuck is doing represents everything I admire about Silicon Valley (and honestly it's a short list of things) and sure he's a strange personality and questionable past but his vision and persistence into this is something I would hope to see succeed and valued.

_8j50 4y ago
The quality of the product is irrelevant to me as well as millions of others who distrust Meta at the most fundamental level. Right out the gate it has that going against it. Outside the US just about every country is gunning to regulate or fine it somehow. Highly recommend selling what you can now before Q2
- johnwheeler 4y ago
  The argument goes like this: I hate meta Why Because they track me Why do they do that To show me things I might want Why is that bad Insert slippery slope — At some point you need to be objective and ask if a little of that hate is just herd mentality.
  - ljw1001 4y ago
    >To show me things that I want That’s an extraordinarily generous interpretation of Facebook’s motivation.
  - _8j50 4y ago
    No, they keep shadow profiles on people that never used them as well as record private phone conversations. If they were an individual they would be in prison for stalking so much. Even google is nowhere as bad as Meta, the only company objectively worse is linkedin.
  - spaceman_2020 4y ago
    My argument is more like "I hate Meta because it silently allowed, even encouraged the ruling party in my country to spread hate, to the point that it led to riots in my city"
- MisterPea 4y ago
  There are millions who distrust Meta, but public perception changes rapidly and companies this size don't die quickly. Their cash cow with ads allows them to stay solvent and make big risks I'm not saying that Meta will definitely have a change in perception but that's what I'm betting on if they truly do have a competent Metaverse. The best example of this change is Microsoft - it wasn't too long ago that it was the most hated tech company by the tech community and shareholders alike and now it's the ~least hated~ big tech out there.
  - _8j50 4y ago
    I can't remember any time microsoft was distrusted and considered outright hostile or even a threat to democracy and civil society like fb. I am sure meta will remain a profitable company for itself and be around a decade or two more, even Yahoo is still around but my caution is don't hold its stock because it could be devalued significantly in the short term and then stabilize eventually due to its whatsapp and instagram dominance. Gen-z and younger millenials don't like it much. It is also struggling to get competitive talent due to its reputation and has gotten to a point where innovation=aquisition.
reacharavindh 4y ago
Interesting position. My personal thought process around it was : Even if Meta succeeds at bringing a technological marvel to the market(I haven’t seen anything convincing that they will) they have amassed astronomical bad reputation with Facebook that anything that is remotely associated with Meta/Zuckerberg would be seen very skeptically. I know I wouldn’t jump in and create assets in their virtual world like I uploaded so many pictures and shared location to Facebook in their early days.. Do you believe their bad reputation can be fixed in such short timeframe?
- MisterPea 4y ago
  I think at the end of the day it's whoever creates the best product - right now, I only see Apple with the resources and ambition to tackle something like this but Meta already has a huge head start. I would like to compare it to AWS' lead in cloud due to their head start but this is obviously a much larger gamble.
eklitzke 4y ago
I agree with you (although I don't own Meta stock). There isn't an imminent threat of Facebook collapsing, but if you look at things mid to long term the situation for Facebook isn't that rosy. There is serious competition from newer social media platforms like TikTok. And more importantly, Facebook's revenue is 100% dependent on advertising and their ability to do effective ad targeting is basically dependent on the policies that Google and Apple implement in Android/iOS and Chrome/Safari. Even if you think that Google for example isn't going to seriously change how tracking works in Chrome/Android (since they are also highly dependent on ad revenue), increasing regulation, especially in the EU but also possibly in the USA in the future, could force things to change. The situation is especially bad for Meta here compared to Google because even though most Google revenue comes from ads, Google still has a bunch of other product verticals like Google Workspace (G Suite), GCP, Android, Chromebooks, GPay, and numerous other products (including moonshot bets like Waymo). And Google doesn't need to rely on ad retargeting nearly as much, they can serve personalized ads just based off the text in search queries and gmail. In the long term it is very important that Meta diversifies and finds new scalable sources of revenue. Even if you don't think VR has a high probability of success, it's one of their best shots at finding something that has the potential (if everything goes well) to eventually generate serious revenue and diversify their business. It's easy to throw stones but what else do people want from Meta? It's extremely dangerous for them to do nothing. Since they're printing money today they can afford to make these huge bets on their future, and without huge future bets their future looks pretty bleak.
- MisterPea 4y ago
  > It's easy to throw stones but what else do people want from Meta? Exactly. However, I think their AI play will need to come into fruition - AI as a service will need to be their second cash cow before anything Metaverse
- johnwheeler 4y ago
  I don’t think any of googles other bets, even when combined, make anyth8ng close to their ad revenue, they are 100% dependent just like Facebook. As I understand it, their advantage over meta is that lots of search is browser based and also they get intent from user keywords
ramblerman 4y ago
Not even 1% that the product isn't a market fit? Given all first impressions point that way.
ericmcer 4y ago
This is a good take and something I needed to be reminded of. I find myself hating Zuckerberg and Musk, etc. but I absolutely want to live in a world where humans have walked on Mars, we have amazing VR tech, and cars all run on quiet and clean electricity. They must have real strength of vision to keep pursuing these things that are impossible level challenges, while the entire world hates them for it.
- rchaud 4y ago
  VR tech already seems pretty good now. It's a niche interest, but I did have fun playing the games. What more is needed? I just don't see Zuck being the person to deliver "amazing VR tech". He doesn't inspire excitement the way Jobs did, and even then, Jobs was just selling expensive MP3 players. The vision for VR is a bit more grand than that.
  - fomine3 4y ago
    Lightweight, high resolution, and high view angle are general request. There are many other development area.
lancesells 4y ago
I think there's some chance of success but if you look at what Nintendo brings in annually (~$16B) on something that is much, much more accessible it's a little shaky. Maybe all it will take is the magic game that has everyone clamoring for it but even then people have to continue using it.

_8j50 4y ago

The quality of the product is irrelevant to me as well as millions of others who distrust Meta at the most fundamental level. Right out the gate it has that going against it. Outside the US just about every country is gunning to regulate or fine it somehow. Highly recommend selling what you can now before Q2

johnwheeler 4y ago
The argument goes like this: I hate meta Why Because they track me Why do they do that To show me things I might want Why is that bad Insert slippery slope — At some point you need to be objective and ask if a little of that hate is just herd mentality.
- ljw1001 4y ago
  >To show me things that I want That’s an extraordinarily generous interpretation of Facebook’s motivation.
- _8j50 4y ago
  No, they keep shadow profiles on people that never used them as well as record private phone conversations. If they were an individual they would be in prison for stalking so much. Even google is nowhere as bad as Meta, the only company objectively worse is linkedin.
- spaceman_2020 4y ago
  My argument is more like "I hate Meta because it silently allowed, even encouraged the ruling party in my country to spread hate, to the point that it led to riots in my city"
MisterPea 4y ago
There are millions who distrust Meta, but public perception changes rapidly and companies this size don't die quickly. Their cash cow with ads allows them to stay solvent and make big risks I'm not saying that Meta will definitely have a change in perception but that's what I'm betting on if they truly do have a competent Metaverse. The best example of this change is Microsoft - it wasn't too long ago that it was the most hated tech company by the tech community and shareholders alike and now it's the ~least hated~ big tech out there.
- _8j50 4y ago
  I can't remember any time microsoft was distrusted and considered outright hostile or even a threat to democracy and civil society like fb. I am sure meta will remain a profitable company for itself and be around a decade or two more, even Yahoo is still around but my caution is don't hold its stock because it could be devalued significantly in the short term and then stabilize eventually due to its whatsapp and instagram dominance. Gen-z and younger millenials don't like it much. It is also struggling to get competitive talent due to its reputation and has gotten to a point where innovation=aquisition.

reacharavindh 4y ago

Interesting position. My personal thought process around it was : Even if Meta succeeds at bringing a technological marvel to the market(I haven’t seen anything convincing that they will) they have amassed astronomical bad reputation with Facebook that anything that is remotely associated with Meta/Zuckerberg would be seen very skeptically. I know I wouldn’t jump in and create assets in their virtual world like I uploaded so many pictures and shared location to Facebook in their early days.. Do you believe their bad reputation can be fixed in such short timeframe?

MisterPea 4y ago
I think at the end of the day it's whoever creates the best product - right now, I only see Apple with the resources and ambition to tackle something like this but Meta already has a huge head start. I would like to compare it to AWS' lead in cloud due to their head start but this is obviously a much larger gamble.

eklitzke 4y ago

I agree with you (although I don't own Meta stock). There isn't an imminent threat of Facebook collapsing, but if you look at things mid to long term the situation for Facebook isn't that rosy. There is serious competition from newer social media platforms like TikTok. And more importantly, Facebook's revenue is 100% dependent on advertising and their ability to do effective ad targeting is basically dependent on the policies that Google and Apple implement in Android/iOS and Chrome/Safari. Even if you think that Google for example isn't going to seriously change how tracking works in Chrome/Android (since they are also highly dependent on ad revenue), increasing regulation, especially in the EU but also possibly in the USA in the future, could force things to change. The situation is especially bad for Meta here compared to Google because even though most Google revenue comes from ads, Google still has a bunch of other product verticals like Google Workspace (G Suite), GCP, Android, Chromebooks, GPay, and numerous other products (including moonshot bets like Waymo). And Google doesn't need to rely on ad retargeting nearly as much, they can serve personalized ads just based off the text in search queries and gmail. In the long term it is very important that Meta diversifies and finds new scalable sources of revenue. Even if you don't think VR has a high probability of success, it's one of their best shots at finding something that has the potential (if everything goes well) to eventually generate serious revenue and diversify their business. It's easy to throw stones but what else do people want from Meta? It's extremely dangerous for them to do nothing. Since they're printing money today they can afford to make these huge bets on their future, and without huge future bets their future looks pretty bleak.

MisterPea 4y ago
> It's easy to throw stones but what else do people want from Meta? Exactly. However, I think their AI play will need to come into fruition - AI as a service will need to be their second cash cow before anything Metaverse
johnwheeler 4y ago
I don’t think any of googles other bets, even when combined, make anyth8ng close to their ad revenue, they are 100% dependent just like Facebook. As I understand it, their advantage over meta is that lots of search is browser based and also they get intent from user keywords

ramblerman 4y ago

Not even 1% that the product isn't a market fit? Given all first impressions point that way.

ericmcer 4y ago

This is a good take and something I needed to be reminded of. I find myself hating Zuckerberg and Musk, etc. but I absolutely want to live in a world where humans have walked on Mars, we have amazing VR tech, and cars all run on quiet and clean electricity. They must have real strength of vision to keep pursuing these things that are impossible level challenges, while the entire world hates them for it.

rchaud 4y ago
VR tech already seems pretty good now. It's a niche interest, but I did have fun playing the games. What more is needed? I just don't see Zuck being the person to deliver "amazing VR tech". He doesn't inspire excitement the way Jobs did, and even then, Jobs was just selling expensive MP3 players. The vision for VR is a bit more grand than that.
- fomine3 4y ago
  Lightweight, high resolution, and high view angle are general request. There are many other development area.

lancesells 4y ago

I think there's some chance of success but if you look at what Nintendo brings in annually (~$16B) on something that is much, much more accessible it's a little shaky. Maybe all it will take is the magic game that has everyone clamoring for it but even then people have to continue using it.