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With the Higgs, we got the mass, which was not predicted by any of the theoretical models. We were basically done at that point. With LIGO we got tons of tangib
by px43 4y ago
With the Higgs, we got the mass, which was not predicted by any of the theoretical models. We were basically done at that point. With LIGO we got tons of tangible data of black holes colliding.
Fusion is not useful until Q>1, and for NIF to claim that when it obviously isn't true is, IMO, a bad look. They invented Qplasma where they arbitrarily get to ignore over 99% of the energy that actually went in, and don't need to worry about capturing any of the energy actually coming out. They got Qplasma>1, which is a great milestone, but the overwhelming narrative in the media is that they got more energy out than they put in, which is simply not true.
Someone, and almost certainly someone *ELSE* will get to Q>1 very soon. Lots of groups are targeting 2024-2025. That will be a major breakthrough, but in the public mind, NIF already did it, and I guarantee that's going to cause a lot of confusion.
It just feels like a marathon race where a bunch of competitors are competing honestly, and one participant jumps in a scooter, and blasts through the finish line, and the crowd is cheering, and they're doing interviews about how great it was to win the race, and people are going home, but the actual race is still happening, and getting super interesting, but no one cares anymore because that milestone was already claimed by someone who didn't even accomplish it.
- thereddaikon 4y agoI'd argue Q>1 isn't worth a press conference either. People care about commercial power generation and that needs more like Q>150.
- throwawaymaths 4y agoDepends on the device. Q_plasms > 150 iirc is the estimate for MCF fusion. The NIF lasers take in way more energy than they put into the pellet, so that I think you want something like Q_plasma > 10,000 iirc. Iirc most engineers use a different Q, which refers to all in energy, so Q > 1.5 ish is enough
- woeirua 4y agoWhy even have any press conferences then until we have a working commercial reactor? Come on, this is just ridiculous.