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> There is nothing about Musk’s history and management style that is even remotely close to what could be called “scientific first principles type of thinking”.

> There is nothing about Musk’s history and management style that is even remotely close to what could be called “scientific first principles type of thinking”. Agreed. But the interesting question for me is: what are people seeing that they would mistake for that?

bmitc 4y ago
I have no idea other than cult of personality. People really seem to take people like Musk and Trump at face value, as if their comments, philosophies, beliefs, positions, etc. are thoughtful things they stand behind and something more than what they really are: mouthpieces to shape what they want at a particular moment or to just blatantly confuse people. It’s a tactic out of Russia’s political playbook. I highly recommend Adam Curtis’ Hypernormalization.
themitigating 4y ago
Weak people seek someone to follow. Trump, Musk, Thatcher. All they have to do is tell them what they want to hear and throngs of unwashed masses, filled with their insecurities and fear, will worship at their feet. "All you have to do is support me and I'll make everything allright" - any of the above
- seanhunter 4y ago
  I am often reminded of the brilliant line from “The second Coming” by WB Yeats.[1] “The best lack all conviction while the worst are full of passionate intensity” Normal people are often full of doubt, their comments are often guarded by caveats etc. Dictators, populists, narcissists, confidence tricksters speak in absolutes. Their messages are very appealing because they seem so clear and straightforward. They can seem brilliant because of this certainty and sometimes can achieve a lot because they aren’t held back by the kinds of reservations and scruples that most people suffer from. [1] https://www.poetryfoundation.org/poems/43290/the-second-coming https://www.poetryfoundation.org/poems/43290/the-second-comi...
pajko 4y ago
Money
atoav 4y ago
> what are people seeing that they would mistake for that? Fascist dictators are often "the weak person's idea how a strong person would look like". That means they are not strong in the sense that they have discipline, can carry a lot for other people, can defend their values etc. They are strong because they act strong. Similar to that Musk is the mediocre person's idea of what a really smart person would look like. He managed to convince quite some people — even very intelligent ones — that he is an actual genius. They wanted it to be true, so they ignored all the red flags. Replacing a train in a tunnel with a tunnel full of Teslas? Surely might look like the future, unless you have just a slight understanding of engineering, physics and safety rules. A scientific first principle would quickly let you optimise this: a fixed route? Rails are more efficient than rubber wheels, so put the Teslas on rails. Moving the batteries around is inefficient and a fire hazard, so let's move them out of the cars and replace them with the elctrical grid. The cars are bad at taking many passengers, replace them by fewer, bigger cars. So: trains. If you apply the "scientific" method you would not end up with the stuff Elon does like. You know what Elon Musk is? It is flying cars. Everybody who didn't think them through at least for a minute thinks they are the future. Why? Because they look like they are the future. I loved these illustrations as a kid and I bet Elon did too. The problem is just that they make no sense in the real world. Elon Musk has an exceptional sensitivity in identifying products and solutions that look like the future. He has a very bad sense of going for actual good, efficient, workable solutions that make sense. Of anything really good comes up, it almost always seems to be despite him, not because he was involved. The touch screens in the Teslas are another example. Looks like the future, while being less usable than what we had in the 90s. All the good ("boring") EV stuff in Tesla comes from actual good engineers who, you guessed it, apply the scientific method. If anything the guy has shown some remarkable ability to change his mind once he realized his bad decisions have been bad. But how much of that was pressure from actually responsible, intelligent people is hard to tell.

bmitc 4y ago

I have no idea other than cult of personality. People really seem to take people like Musk and Trump at face value, as if their comments, philosophies, beliefs, positions, etc. are thoughtful things they stand behind and something more than what they really are: mouthpieces to shape what they want at a particular moment or to just blatantly confuse people. It’s a tactic out of Russia’s political playbook. I highly recommend Adam Curtis’ Hypernormalization.

themitigating 4y ago

Weak people seek someone to follow. Trump, Musk, Thatcher. All they have to do is tell them what they want to hear and throngs of unwashed masses, filled with their insecurities and fear, will worship at their feet. "All you have to do is support me and I'll make everything allright" - any of the above

seanhunter 4y ago
I am often reminded of the brilliant line from “The second Coming” by WB Yeats.[1] “The best lack all conviction while the worst are full of passionate intensity” Normal people are often full of doubt, their comments are often guarded by caveats etc. Dictators, populists, narcissists, confidence tricksters speak in absolutes. Their messages are very appealing because they seem so clear and straightforward. They can seem brilliant because of this certainty and sometimes can achieve a lot because they aren’t held back by the kinds of reservations and scruples that most people suffer from. [1] https://www.poetryfoundation.org/poems/43290/the-second-coming https://www.poetryfoundation.org/poems/43290/the-second-comi...

pajko 4y ago

Money

atoav 4y ago

> what are people seeing that they would mistake for that? Fascist dictators are often "the weak person's idea how a strong person would look like". That means they are not strong in the sense that they have discipline, can carry a lot for other people, can defend their values etc. They are strong because they act strong. Similar to that Musk is the mediocre person's idea of what a really smart person would look like. He managed to convince quite some people — even very intelligent ones — that he is an actual genius. They wanted it to be true, so they ignored all the red flags. Replacing a train in a tunnel with a tunnel full of Teslas? Surely might look like the future, unless you have just a slight understanding of engineering, physics and safety rules. A scientific first principle would quickly let you optimise this: a fixed route? Rails are more efficient than rubber wheels, so put the Teslas on rails. Moving the batteries around is inefficient and a fire hazard, so let's move them out of the cars and replace them with the elctrical grid. The cars are bad at taking many passengers, replace them by fewer, bigger cars. So: trains. If you apply the "scientific" method you would not end up with the stuff Elon does like. You know what Elon Musk is? It is flying cars. Everybody who didn't think them through at least for a minute thinks they are the future. Why? Because they look like they are the future. I loved these illustrations as a kid and I bet Elon did too. The problem is just that they make no sense in the real world. Elon Musk has an exceptional sensitivity in identifying products and solutions that look like the future. He has a very bad sense of going for actual good, efficient, workable solutions that make sense. Of anything really good comes up, it almost always seems to be despite him, not because he was involved. The touch screens in the Teslas are another example. Looks like the future, while being less usable than what we had in the 90s. All the good ("boring") EV stuff in Tesla comes from actual good engineers who, you guessed it, apply the scientific method. If anything the guy has shown some remarkable ability to change his mind once he realized his bad decisions have been bad. But how much of that was pressure from actually responsible, intelligent people is hard to tell.