3 ms·
Never is a very long time. And the big thing I don't see this article discuss is how cost curves change over time. I remember reading articles in the 1990s us
by FiatLuxDave 4y ago
Never is a very long time. And the big thing I don't see this article discuss is how cost curves change over time. I remember reading articles in the 1990s using the same logic to say how electric cars were never going to happen because although electric cars were improving, internal combustion cars were also improving and so electric cars would never be better. Most technologies have a sigmoid adoption curve and something resembling an inverted logarithmic cost curve. Does wind power beat the pants off of fusion, and even fission right now? Of course it does! But where is wind power technology in its lifetime compared to them? Is wind power going to cost 10 times less 200 years from now? Maybe, but I don't see that as a given. Wind power is really hitting its stride right now, so it's kind of like comparing your favorite sports team against whoever happens to be winning right now, and saying "oh this is inevitable". Of course the winning team right now happens to currently be the winning team. Wind wasn't the inevitable winner in 1920, and I have no idea how the Golden State Warriors will do in 2191 either, assuming they are around.
So, unless "never" really means "not anytime soon", you need to look at what fusion can do instead of what it can do with existing design concepts. Fusion is fully capable of direct conversion, even without aneutronic fusion, as long as you are willing to throw away waste heat on par with internal combustion engines. My own D+D design included this feature back in the 1990s. The reason why you don't see the big projects focus on this is because it does you no good until you actually have enough fusion for ignition (or an equivalent state), and on most designs it would be an added cost or complication.
It's too bad, because I actually agree with what the article says in the final paragraph (and I've been saying that since 1995). Fusion development does have a real issue with a need for funding, and how that funding is obtained and directed. It would be nice if we did better in this generation. But give it a couple of hundred years, and it's likely that will change at some point. Never is a very long time.
- Gwypaas 4y ago> as long as you are willing to throw away waste heat on par with internal combustion engines Here in lies the problem. Waste heat on a powerplant scale is expensive to deal with. Ask any coal plant.
- FiatLuxDave 4y agoThat is true, but it is not the problem. Waste heat hasn't kept coal from being economically competitive. Things like specific power density and simplicity are much more important factors in the cost of most power generation methods. For example, low head water wheels are simple (thus low cost) but have poor specific power (thus high cost per kilowatt). The article posits that fusion will always have worse specific power and be more complex than competing modes of generation. I think it's way too early to be making that prediction. You don't try to raise specific power Trevithick-style while you are still trying to light a candle.
- Gwypaas 4y agoCoal is not competitive anymore. It only gets built in places with lackluster gas infrastructure. https://www.lazard.com/perspective/levelized-cost-of-energy-levelized-cost-of-storage-and-levelized-cost-of-hydrogen/ https://www.lazard.com/perspective/levelized-cost-of-energy-...