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I said this elsewhere, but the flaw in the “but the data shows a decrease” type of thinking when it comes to crime is that it doesn’t take into account: - How
by quartesixte 4y ago
I said this elsewhere, but the flaw in the “but the data shows a decrease” type of thinking when it comes to crime is that it doesn’t take into account:
- How low these rates have to go to feel “safe”
- The impact singular novel and particularly violent events has on safety psychology
It’s one thing to have high rates of discrete shoplifting. But even just one daylight smash and grab is enough to rattle people.
- CPLX 4y agoThe other thing it doesn’t take into account is that the stats are the product of: 1) Crimes that are actually reported to the police 2) The subset of the above that the police accepts a report on and chooses to tell us about It seems obvious at first glance that those numbers are highly dependent on a bunch if things, and there’s plenty of ways the final number would get divorced from a close coupling with the “actual” real world number. Or said a different way. Taking that as an argument has as a premise that you trust the police, which seems incompatible with other parts of the same open conversation we’re having about all this.
- BryantD 4y agoI think this is absolutely correct on both counts. It is obvious that people don't feel safe or David Sacks (you may recall him from what's currently happening on Twitter) wouldn't have been able to successfully fund the Boudin recall. But we're engineers. It behooves us to step back and be rational about what the data tells us instead of deciding that data that contradicts our emotions is false.
- quartesixte 4y agoAgreed. But analysis of data requires context, and good baselines. And point (1) of my list is based off of not just a general feeling, but comparing it to cities who are touted as being “safe”. And their numbers are incredibly low.