For sure. "We tend to over-estimate the impact of a phenomenon in the short run and under-estimate it in the long run." I think part of what's going on here is

For sure. "We tend to over-estimate the impact of a phenomenon in the short run and under-estimate it in the long run." I think part of what's going on here is that the actual pattern of technology use is heavily dependent on technical and economic details that can't be known up front. It turns out that SAE level 5 autonomy is much harder than a lot of people expected, so the thing that disrupted the cab industry is not the long-anticipated robo-cab but a mechanical-turk version of that. Or consider mass adoption of flying cars and/or personal helicopters. It has been technically possible for a while, but the economics and practicalities don't work out.